More Australians intend to vote no than yes in the voice referendum on 14 October, but a chunk of respondents are either equivocating or still unsure about how they will cast their ballots, the latest Guardian Essential poll shows.
The new poll of 1,151 respondents was taken after the official launch of the yes campaign in Adelaide last week and the results indicate 48% intend to vote no and 42% yes, with 10% unsure. Last month, no was ahead of yes 47% to 43%.
The topline data suggests the yes campaign for the voice remains in trouble. More poll respondents report being a hard no (41%) at this stage than a hard yes (30%).
But some voters remain open to persuasion. The poll asks people to identify whether their view on the constitutionally enshrined representative body for Indigenous Australians is fixed or flexible. At the moment 12% characterise their support as a soft yes, 7% say they are a soft no, while 10% are unsure.
The no vote pulled ahead of the yes vote in the Guardian Essential poll for the first time last month, and yes campaign strategists suggest the pathway to victory is a narrow one. The latest poll data suggests the only voting cohort for which the voice enjoys majority support is people aged between 18 and 34.
As the referendum campaign enters the decisive stretch, the survey also suggests Australians are growing increasingly concerned about their financial security against a backdrop of rising interest rates, high petrol and power prices.
Last month a slim majority (52%) characterised themselves as feeling financially secure while 48% said they were either struggling or facing significant financial difficulty. That sentiment has flipped in a fortnight, with 54% now reporting serious difficulty and 46% describing themselves as comfortable.
Against that volatile backdrop of material insecurity, the latest poll indicates Anthony Albanese has lost standing with voters over the course of this year.
Back in May, 54% of respondents approved of the prime minister’s performance. Now 46% of respondents approve of his performance and 43% disapprove.
While Albanese is off his highs, more voters approve of his performance than disapprove. But the reverse is true for Peter Dutton, who continues to say no to a constitutionally enshrined voice.
In May, 45% of Guardian Essential respondents disapproved of the opposition leader’s performance while 36% gave him the thumbs up. The latest poll has Dutton’s disapproval at 43% and approval at 38%.
Over the weekend Dutton signalled he would pursue a second referendum if he won the next federal election in the event Australians torpedo the voice in October’s referendum.
Dutton says he would ask Australians to support constitutional recognition for Indigenous Australians while continuing to reject the voice proposal set out in the Uluru statement – a position that has been pilloried by Indigenous leaders and criticised by some colleagues.
The latest Guardian Essential suggests voters feel more informed about the voice proposal now than they did back in February: 31% of respondents said they were across the issues back then and that percentage has now risen to 49%.
While fluency about the voice has grown, there is still a reasonable proportion of voters who say either they haven’t heard of the Uluru statement (30%) or say they’ve heard of it but don’t know what is in it (31%).
Voters have been sent a pamphlet outlining the no and the yes cases. In the latest poll 30% of respondents say they’ve got the material and have read it, 26% say they’ve got it but haven’t read it, and 44% say they haven’t seen the material.
People report relying mostly on friends and family to give them information about the voice.
Respondents say they trust the mainstream media more than social networks to give them pertinent information about the referendum, but the data suggests there are low levels of trust in both those sources. People in the hard no camp report even lower levels of trust in traditional media and social media.
