In the Atlantic clash of the weather titans this hurricane season, scientists still aren’t sure what the rest of the season may hold.
But a mid-season prediction from Colorado State University suggests that we could see even more storms than originally predicted, a growing sign that the boiling hot Atlantic could be a bigger factor in the season than initially expected, one that could potentially top the smothering effects of global weather phenomenon El Niño.
In April, early predictions — including CSU’s — largely called for a below-average season. Colorado State predicted the Atlantic could see 13 named storms, six of which could power up into hurricanes.
On Thursday, CSU’s latest forecast called for 18 named storms, nine of which could strengthen into hurricanes. That tips the scales into an above-average season, a more aggressive prediction than NOAA made in May when it called for an average season with 12 to 17 storms and five to nine hurricanes.
So far this season, the Atlantic has seen four storms, an unnamed one in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June. Currently, the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center haven’t flagged anything brewing in the Atlantic, but the next name on the list is Don.
The next official prediction for what the rest of the season could hold will come from NOAA in early August.
Atlantic heat vs. El Niño
CSU’s prediction for a more active season relies heavily on the impact of the Atlantic, which is way hotter than normal right now. The main development region, a swatch of ocean where the majority of storms develop, is hotter than it’s ever been.
Hot waters evaporate more easily, fueling storms to grow bigger and stronger.
“Sea surface temperatures in this region during June were not only the warmest on record, but the departure from average was over double that of the previous June record from 2008, according to government data,” Local 10 meteorologist Michael Lowry wrote in his newsletter.
But an abnormally hot Atlantic isn’t the only factor in the Atlantic this season. NOAA officially marked the start of an El Niño earlier this summer, a global weather pattern that can lead to fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic because of increased wind shear, which makes it harder for storms to organize and strengthen.
However, El Niño isn’t very strong — yet. If it ramps up by the peak of the hurricane season, usually August and September, meteorologists believe it could tamp down activity in the Atlantic. Weather models this month strongly suggest that this could indeed be the case, that a moderate to strong El Niño will be in place by season’s peak.
“High chance of a robust #ElNino is why CSU’s hurricane forecast is not for even more activity given record warm Atlantic,” Philip Klotzbach, lead author of the CSU forecast, tweeted Thursday.
Meteorologists said that July is traditionally when the effects — namely high wind shear — of an El Niño become clear. So they’re watching the Atlantic basin closely for the next few weeks, when sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to climb.
Unlike NOAA, Colorado State University’s forecasts make predictions on the likelihood than a storm could strike land, and this updated forecast inched up those chances some more.
“Of course, if there’s a dozen storms in the ocean and no landfalls we don’t care how active it is. But the forecast includes an increased risk for U.S. coastal landfalls with the percentages broken down by state,” meteorologist Craig Setzer tweeted.
“My takeaway, I will make sure my hurricane plan & kit are solid this year (as I do every year living in Florida).”
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