On Friday, soldiers from the British army’s Royal Anglian regiment were practising their part in a Nato exercise due to take place in Poland in March. It is expected to be the largest in eastern Europe in a decade, with 20,000 troops from the military alliance scheduled to take part in the show of anti-Russia strength.
However, a rift between the army and the Conservative government meant Downing Street, unsure what ordinary soldiers might say, had instructed that no participants would be available for interview by journalists hoping to attend.
This week Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the army, used a speech – not signed off by Rishi Sunak or the defence secretary, Grant Shapps – to urge politicians to take “preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing”. He even hinted that a return to conscription might be necessary if there were to be a major war with Russia, partly because the British army was so small.
Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is heading for its second anniversary next month. For all the bellicose language, and repeated talk by British and other western politicians of supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, the armed forces continue to struggle with recruitment and retention at a time when events in Israel and the Red Sea mean the world has become even more unstable.
Royal Navy warships are engaged in conflict for the first time in 20 years and HMS Diamond, in targeting several Houthi drones in the Red Sea, became the first to have shot down an aerial target in combat since 1991. But such is the shortage of sailors that two frigates, HMS Westminster and HMS Argyll, are to be mothballed before replacements are introduced from 2026; and this week Carlos Del Toro, the US navy secretary, called for the UK to reassess the size of its armed forces.
The latest figures show that on a net basis 5,790 people left the armed forces in the year to 30 September 2023. Army and navy recruitment targets have been missed every year since 2010, according to figures compiled by Labour. Royal Navy personnel numbers are 5% below the target set in 2015, and RAF numbers are 9% below target, while the army is only ahead because its target was cut to 73,000 in 2021, the smallest size it has been since about 1714, according to National Army Museum calculations.
The reasons are complex, and opinion is split. Richard Mitchell, a former member of the Parachute regiment said he joined after the 9/11 attacks when “they couldn’t get people into the Para depot fast enough”. However, he said, the morality of recent conflicts had been ambiguous. “Iraq was exposed as the big lie, and Afghanistan as a complete failure. Young people look back on recent history and worry the same will happen again.”
There is no direct need for British forces in Ukraine, where UK support for Kyiv’s cause is relatively high. However, the UK has joined the US in what Sunak indicated this week could be an extended bombing campaign to reopen the Red Sea where commercial ships are being targeted by Gaza-supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen. It is one of the world’s poorest countries, with the essentials of food, fuel and medicines in short supply after a nine-year civil war.
Other experts highlight concern about the reality of military life. Nick Reynolds, a military specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, said “military pay has stagnated compared to CPI inflation” with pay rises capped at 1% between 2013 and 2018. There have been higher increases in the last two years, at 3.75% and 5% plus £1,000, but the first was well below prevailing increases in the cost of living and the second only higher for junior ranks.
A significant proportion of military housing is substandard. Just over a year ago the military had to apologise for the poor state of its accommodation, with nearly a third of homes needing repair. Meanwhile, complaints of sexism and harassment have been reported across the forces in the past two years, from the Red Arrows to submarine crews and even civil servants in the MoD’s Whitehall main building.
The most acute questions, however, centre around the recruitment process. Since Capita took over the army recruitment contract in 2012, the total shortfall is just over 23,000, according to Labour’s calculations. “Demographic and cultural changes have been a challenge,” Capita said in a statement, referring to concerns about whether young people believe a career in which an early death is theoretically possible is attractive.
The company and the army have made efforts to overcome hesitancy, achieving some success with its “snowflake” campaign in 2019, timed, it was revealed, to coincide with the “January blues”. They have also been reaching further into schools, with extra money for cadet forces. These efforts have often been controversial, not just because the UK remains the only European nation to recruit at 16, but amid a perception that the military is focusing its efforts on those of school age.
At the beginning of this week, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) cancelled a promotional event it was hosting on the popular Fortnite video game. Players had been invited to watch a livestream of two well-known gamers on a specially created army map. It was criticised for, in effect, being aimed at children, even though it was intended to have an 18+ requirement. “The campaign was not intended for children,” the MoD said, having “taken all feedback into consideration”.
Labour, which took Britain’s military into Afghanistan and Iraq, argued through John Healey, the shadow defence spokesperson, that “ministers have corroded the nation’s contract with those who serve”. It said too many personnel lived in “damp and mouldy housing” and morale was down by a third, according to surveys.
The MoD said it continued to meet all its operational requirements, including tackling Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. A spokesperson highlighted last year’s 5% plus £1,000 pay rise as “the largest pay increase in over 20 years” and said there was a commitment to spend more than £4bn on improving personnel accommodation.
Sanders is said to be relaxed about the discourse unleashed by his remarks. His argument was that politicians needed to lay the “foundations for national mobilisation” by focusing on the potential threat posed by Russia. That may have to become more acute before young Britons are ready to come, and stay, onboard.
• This article was amended on 29 January 2024. A previous version said last year’s pay rise for the military was 5%, rather than 5% plus £1,000, which means the rise for some junior ranks was above the prevailing CPI rate.
