The southwest monsoon continued its steady advance across the country on Tuesday, reaching the remaining parts of the Northeast and covering the entire state of Sikkim, even as the India Meteorological Department forecast further progress into several regions of southern, central and eastern India over the next four to five days.
According to the IMD, the monsoon has advanced into parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, the remaining areas of the Northeast and the whole of Sikkim, marking a significant expansion of its footprint.
The weather agency said atmospheric conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further into more parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka during the next four to five days.
Similar conditions are expected to aid its progress into additional parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and eastern India during the same period.
The anticipated advance is expected to bring widespread rainfall to several regions that have been experiencing intense summer heat and dry conditions, providing relief to residents and supporting the ongoing agricultural season.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the pace of the monsoon's northward movement, which is crucial for the country's kharif sowing season.
El Niño concerns loom
Even as the monsoon advances, concerns are mounting over the possible emergence of El Niño conditions, which have historically been associated with weaker and erratic rainfall, higher temperatures and pressure on agricultural production.
The IMD has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) this season, raising questions about rainfall adequacy during the crucial kharif cropping cycle.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has projected an 80 per cent probability of El Niño developing between June and August and more than a 90 per cent chance of it persisting through November.
Historical data suggest that strong El Niño years can affect crop yields significantly.
Analysis of previous episodes in 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16 indicates an average decline of around 1.3 per cent in kharif crop output. Crops such as jowar, tur, bajra, maize and groundnut have been among the most vulnerable to deficient rainfall.
Experts note that every percentage point decline in monsoon rainfall below the long-term average can weigh on agricultural growth and farm incomes.
The timing of rainfall shortfalls is also critical. Weak rainfall during the early part of the season can reduce sowing, while deficiencies later in the season can hurt yields and overall production.
Higher temperatures and uneven rainfall patterns associated with El Niño can also increase the risk of pest attacks and crop diseases in cotton, pulses, soyabean, chilli and vegetable crops.
However, government officials maintain that the impact of adverse monsoon conditions has reduced over the years due to expanded irrigation networks, greater use of climate-resilient seed varieties and improved agricultural practices.
Rice, for instance, is considered relatively less vulnerable because a large share of the crop is supported by irrigation facilities.
Inflation and rural economy at risk
A weaker monsoon and lower farm output can also have implications for inflation, particularly food prices. Past El Niño years have witnessed elevated inflationary pressures, especially in pulses and other essential food items.
Economists warn that any disruption in the production of vegetables, pulses and edible oils could feed into retail inflation, while reduced agricultural output may affect rural incomes and economic activity in farm-dependent regions.
With nearly 80 per cent of India's annual rainfall received during the June-September monsoon season, the progress and distribution of rainfall over the coming weeks will be closely watched by policymakers, farmers and markets alike.
