Good morning. A sense of despondency is permeating Conservative party HQ. The government is flailing after losing two byelections and winning a third by the narrowest of margins. Inflation is not coming down as quickly as they would have hoped. The party’s small boats bill suffered a series of defeats in the House of Lords last month, as Channel crossings by people seeking asylum hit record highs. And senior Tories are expecting MPs to quit in droves before the next election after years of political chaos and turmoil have left them exhausted.
Rishi Sunak knows that, with an election looming, he needs to come up with a strategy and create a clear dividing line between his party and Labour. And it seems as though the lesson the prime minister has taken from that slim byelection victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip – where opposition to an extension of London’s ultra-low emission zone formed the central plank of the campaign – is that taking aim at the green agenda is a route to electoral success. Sunak has suggested that his government is willing to roll back, delay and even abandon climate policies that could come at a cost to consumers – and spent the weekend burnishing his pro-car credentials, with plans to restrict local councils’ ability to institute a host of traffic calming and environmental measures.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Guardian environment reporter Helena Horton about the government’s apparent opposition to its own climate agenda. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Society | The financial cost of the Grenfell Tower disaster has reached nearly £1.2bn – 4,000 times the amount that was saved by replacing fire-retardant cladding with a cheaper combustible alternative during the disastrous refurbishment. Most of the cost is coming from the public purse, dwarfing the compensation to the bereaved and survivors paid by companies involved in wrapping the west London council’s block in combustible materials.
Pakistan | At least 44 people have been killed and more than 150 injured in a bomb blast in the north-west of Pakistan that targeted a political party gathering. Police said the explosion was caused by a suicide bomb, adding that the initial investigations suggested the Islamic State group (IS) could be behind the attack, though investigations are ongoing. No group has claimed responsibility.
NHS | A leading spinal surgeon’s botched operations left patients with serious blood loss, long-term pain and mobility problems, a damning report has revealed. It found that John Bradley Williamson’s “unacceptable and unprofessional behaviour” severely or moderately harmed 20 patients at Salford Royal hospital, once regarded as one of England’s safest.
Finance | The biggest regulatory shake-up of UK retail financial services for two decades will come into force on Monday in an effort to crack down on rip-offs and poor customer service. Experts are predicting that some older financial products that do not meet the new standards are likely to be removed from sale.
Policing | The Metropolitan police is expanding its use of “precision policing”, an approach that uses crime data to focus police activity, in an effort to remove some of the most serious criminals from the streets.
In depth: ‘It’s just another example of the UK stepping back from the world stage’
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has said that the era of global warming has ended and “the era of global boiling has arrived”, in response to the devastating heatwaves and wildfires that have affected many countries. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme have confirmed that July is on track to be the hottest month ever recorded. And it’s only going to get worse, unless urgent action is taken.
So why is the UK government deciding that now is the moment to call into question policies that, according to experts, should have been put in place years ago?
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On the chopping block
Reaching net zero – the point at which your carbon emissions are matched by efforts to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – was a flagship target for this Conservative government. But the prime minister has indicated the Tories could delay it. Even though the government’s pledge to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 100% of 1990 levels by 2050 has already been enshrined in law, Sunak said the government would move away from an “ideological” view of net zero. Instead it would aim to work towards it in a more “affordable”, “proportionate” and “pragmatic” way.
“The Conservatives seem to be more concerned with giving businesses tax breaks and permission to extract more oil and gas in the future than with helping build more renewable sources of energy,” says Helena.
That certainly explains plans to maximise extraction from the North Sea’s oil and gas stores. In fact, the prime minister will be reportedly using his visit to north-east Scotland to announce government plans to issue 100 licences for companies that want to extract oil and gas from the North Sea. The Climate Change Committee has already warned that not enough progress is being made to reach the 2050 target and that the “expansion of fossil fuel production is not in line with net zero”.
The other policies on the table to be watered down or abandoned entirely include the 2030 target of phasing out petrol and diesel cars, ensuring rental properties are energy efficient, banning gas boilers in new builds from 2025, the hydrogen levy, low-traffic neighbourhoods and 20mph speed limits. Almost all are policies that the Conservative government pushed at one time or another.
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A dividing line
The Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection gave those in the Conservative party who were already not keen on the green agenda ammunition to effectively say “this issue does not resonate with voters”. But upon closer inspection, this argument does not seem particularly strong. The Conservatives did keep the seat, but by just 495 votes – down from 7,210 in the 2019 general election. “I think they’re using it as an excuse to show that green policies are unpopular in order to draw a line between themselves and Labour,” Helena says. Shouting about being “pro-driver” is a convenient fig leaf.
This shift may not serve them well. A survey conducted by the polling company Ipsos found that eight in 10 Britons are concerned about climate change, seven in 10 believe that we are already feeling the effects of climate change and half think the net zero target needs to be brought forward. Another poll found that most people do not think the government is doing enough to combat the crisis. “There has been polling that shows that people who are switching from Conservatives to Labour are doing it partly because the Tories are not doing enough on climate,” Helena adds.
Conservative claims about the cost of a greener economy also gets short shrift from Helena: “If you look at what other countries are doing, China is building massive amounts of solar farms, America is investing heavily in renewables and Europe is trying to match America’s funding on renewables. That’s the new economy. That’s the new industrial revolution.”
She believes the pivot on the climate agenda is an indication that the Conservatives are panicking and running out of new ideas: “They are kind of tapped out – they are at the end of 13 years in power and the only real arguments they have are negative ones.”
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A split in the party
Last week, Helena interviewed the former Conservative environment minister Zac Goldsmith, who says he resigned from the party because of Sunak’s apathy around climate policy. Goldsmith (pictured above) was blunt in his criticisms: he called Michael Gove a “monster” if he continued to trash green policies while understanding the urgency of the climate crisis. It’s just the most visible example of the growing rift in the Conservative party around the climate crisis, which Tory-watcher Katy Balls explored in this comment piece on Friday. Over the weekend a group of 43 Tory MPs and peers wrote to Sunak asking him to delay the 2030 timetable for ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, although so far he’s resisted that call, insisting again yesterday that there are no plans for a shift.
“There are Tory MPs who have been arguing against these policies for some time but they were a minority,” Helena says. She says that when the Conservative party has its back against the wall it tends to defer to the more rightwing factions. “I think that’s what’s happening now, and Rishi Sunak is someone who’s easily played on these issues, because, as Zac Goldsmith said, he doesn’t really care about climate change,” Helena says. And he’s pulling other senior cabinet ministers along with him. Gove for instance was at one point a supporter of environmental policies when he was at Defra – now he describes net zero as a cost to the consumer and compares environmental policies to a “religious crusade”.
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A crucial 12 months
With a general election fast approaching, it may seem that any attempts by the government to roll back climate policies will ultimately be short-lived if Labour secures the victory many are predicting it will. But inaction is not an option when much of the world is already facing the impacts of the climate crisis. “A year doesn’t seem like a long time but every year that passes is another where we haven’t moved towards meeting net zero by 2050,” Helena says.
And, on the flip side, a year is plenty of time to muddy the waters politically and spread climate misinformation. “It was common consensus at Cop26 that net zero is really important and that it should be put in place as quickly as possible. But now as the Conservative start backsliding on it, Labour might spook too and then they could get into power as the political landscape and perhaps the public conversation moves away from supporting this policy,” Helena says.
The UK is still looked upon for leadership on climate issues, says Helena. If it is seen to be backing away from its commitments other countries are less likely to have the same impetus to decarbonise. “It’s just another example of the UK stepping back from the world stage and diminishing its responsibility to others.”
For exclusive reporting on the climate crisis from Helena and the Guardian environment team, sign up here to receive Down to Earth every Thursday
What else we’ve been reading
Sport
Cycling | Demi Vollering claimed the Tour de France Femmes maiden title after coming second in the individual time trial on stage eight. Marlen Reusser completed a memorable weekend for the Dutch team, winning the final stage with a time of 29 minutes 15 seconds.
Football | Manuela Vanegas headed a stoppage-time winner for Colombia to secure a shock 2-1 victory against Germany in the Women’s World Cup. A World Cup host, or even co-host, had never previously exited at the group stage but New Zealand are now reluctant bystanders at their own party after a 0-0 stalemate with Switzerland, who progress to face Japan or Spain in the round of 16. Morocco’s 1-0 win over South Korea all but confirms the Asian side’s exit.
Olympics | Diving champion Tom Daley has said he will return to the pool to target a spot at Paris 2024. Daley, now 29, has taken two years out since he won Olympic gold alongside Matty Lee in 2020, saying he had “in theory retired”, but in a new YouTube video he said a recent trip to Colorado Springs in the US had reignited his competitive spirit with a year to go until Paris.
The front pages
The Guardian’s week in print starts with “Ministers seek curbs on 20mph limits in push to woo motorists”. “Now get a move on, Rishi”, says the Sun, adding “PM vows to end anti-car moves” and “Fed-up drivers want more change”. “PM gives green light for more North Sea drilling” – that’s the Times while the Financial Times has “Britain makes it cheaper to pollute by watering down carbon market scheme”. “Most households ‘struggling’ to pay for food and bills as another rate rise looms” says the i today. “50,000 extra families to face IHT” is the Daily Telegraph’s top story about inheritance tax. “£10bn boost ‘from scrapping tourist tax’” – the benefit to the economy if visitors enjoyed VAT-free shopping, says the Daily Mail. “Putin peace bombshell” – the Metro contrasts the Russian president saying he’s open to talks, with his close ally Dmitry Medvedev saying Russia will need to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine’s counteroffensive succeeds. “Don’t let my son’s death be for nothing” – another heartbreaking instalment in the Daily Mirror’s campaign against killer dogs. “End this farce! Three hours on hold for tax office” – the Daily Express presents the results of its own “call handling probe”.
Today in Focus
The novelist who became a war crimes investigator – and uncovered a secret diary
Victoria Amelina was an award-winning novelist. But after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, she began investigating war crimes – including the disappearance of a much-loved children’s author
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Now 74, Roger Mairlot was almost 60 when a chance encounter led to an exciting new chapter of his life. The car mechanic had been a big music lover in his younger years, but his interest was eclipsed over time by family and work life. That was until he befriended two people on their way to a Joan Baez concert, and began gigging almost every night of the week, getting to grips with the internet to find out when acts would be on tour.
As he tells Paula Cocozza in the latest edition of the Guardian’s A new start after 60 column, going to shows alone doesn’t feel lonely – quite the opposite in fact. “You meet people, on trains, at gigs, waiting for buses,” he says. “You see a bit of life”.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
