Good morning. Part of me hopes this isn’t what you’re doing with your bank holiday, but it is more likely than ever that you are reading your favourite daily newsletter on a cruise ship. The industry has been growing sharply since its unfortunate pandemic-related PR problem, and now accounts for about 35 million holidaymakers a year worldwide – up 6% on 2019.
At the same time, the ships that carry them are getting bigger and bigger. A modern cruise ship is very far from the quaint little island-hopping jaunt of old: instead, it has more in common with the USS Enterprise. One example: the industry’s staggering consumption of highly polluting fuel.
Earlier this month, the campaign group Transport & Environment published a report that set out some remarkable numbers on the advent of the new “cruisezillas”, now twice the size of the largest ships of a quarter of a century ago. Today’s newsletter, with T&E’s UK sustainable shipping manager Jon Hood, explains why they are getting so enormous – and what can be done about the environmental costs. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Middle East crisis | Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that Israeli air raids targeting Hezbollah rockets in southern Lebanon in the early hours of Sunday morning were “not the end of the story”, after the two sides exchanged their heaviest fire since the war in Gaza began, raising fears of an all-out regional conflict.
Education | Teachers returning to work next month will confront a worrying “behaviour bubble” as younger children who were most severely affected by the pandemic reach the teenage years renowned for peak classroom disruption, experts and school leaders have warned.
Labour | A senior cabinet minister has warned of more economic pain to come as the government prepares to restrict public spending in ways MPs and campaigners say could exacerbate the cost of living crisis. In a speech this week, Keir Starmer is expected to say: “Things will get worse before we get better”.
US politics | Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign says it has now raised $540m for its election battle against Donald Trump. The campaign said it saw a surge of donations during last week’s Democratic national convention in Chicago.
UK news | Kirstie Allsopp has criticised Britain’s “risk-averse” culture as she revealed she was reported to social services for allowing her 15-year-old son to go travelling across Europe. Allsop had argued “It is our job to raise our children to leave the nest”.
In depth: ‘They’re a luxury industry, dumping their pollution and being allowed to get away with it’
There are few means of travel worse for the environment than a cruise ship. Most of the ones that traverse the Mediterranean or the Caribbean do so while belching out toxic diesel fumes; when they are docked, they clog the air of their host ports even as their passengers wander the cobbled streets.
Cruise ships are only a small part of the shipping industry – but they are growing in size and number all the time, and there are good reasons to think they should be a priority for measures that might challenge their environmental impact.
“The whole of the shipping sector is given enormous tax breaks around the world,” said Jon Hood. “Their fuel is untaxed and their emissions are largely unpriced. The same subsidies don’t exist for road or air transport, which are clearly not taxed highly enough anyway given the environmental damage they cause. But where much of UK shipping is carrying the UK’s trade around the world, cruising is a luxury for the better-off. It’s entirely voluntary, and it’s pretty much the only part of the shipping sector in that category.”
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The size of the industry
In 1970, there were 21 cruise ships in the world, the Transport & Environment report says. Today, there are 515, ranging from the opulent 1931 sailing yacht Sea Cloud, which carries 124 passengers and crew, to the shiny new behemoth Icon of the Seas, which is longer than 15 blue whales and carries almost 10,000 passengers. JP Morgan estimates that the cruise industry will be worth almost 4% of the £1.9tn global holiday market by 2028.
While baby boomers with money to burn are still a large part of the industry’s success, after a disastrous pandemic period, future growth rests on millennial and younger holidaymakers, with Royal Caribbean International saying that half of its customers are in that cohort. The average net worth of those under 40 who travel on cruises is now about $259,000. All of that means that cruise operators are ordering new ships in large numbers, with 60 expected to be added by the end of 2026 at an average price of $760m and an average capacity of 2,346 holidaymakers.
Cruise operators, meanwhile, are buying up private islands to increase the exclusivity of their offer. One such destination, Carnival Cruise Line’s Celebration Key, anticipates it will accept close to four million visitors annually by 2028 and promises an enormous “walkthrough sandcastle”, an 11,000-square-foot infinity pool, and a “uniquely Bahamian experience” with no access to anyone who isn’t coming on one of their ships.
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The size of the ships
The ships are growing just as quickly as the industry is. The largest vessels around today are twice as big as they were in 2000; if they continue to grow at the same rate, Transport & Environment says, they will be 1.5 times larger by 2050 than they are today, or eight times the size of the Titanic. “They’re taking advantage of technologies that allow these ships to be built bigger and bigger,” Hood said.
It is already pretty hard to compute just how massive these things are: the Icon of the Seas has 2,800 guest rooms, 20 decks, 40 restaurants, seven swimming pools and an indoor waterfall. One summary of its many layers: “human lasagne”.
The newest and largest ships carry a disproportionate number of the passengers, maximising the efficiency with which the industry can accommodate growing demand – with 18% of the global fleet accounting for more than 50% of capacity. Hence the “cruisezilla” epithet.
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The environmental impact
European cruise ships alone emitted more sulphurous oxides than 1bn cars in 2022, creating huge pollution in the cities where they dock, with debatable economic benefits for locals. In some places, cruise ships can plug into on-shore power and turn off their engines, eliminating toxic exhaust fumes linked to cancer, asthma and heart disease.
But that is more expensive to the operators than burning diesel, or marine gas oil, and the infrastructure is patchy. In Southampton, for example, only around one in 10 cruise ships plugged into shore power since it was brought online in 2022. (Some 14 cruise ships were expected to dock there this bank holiday weekend alone.) When not plugged in, a single ship can emit as much diesel exhaust as 34,400 idling lorries to power operations while docked.
“Based on current prices in the UK, shore power is around twice the price of using marine gas oil for an average cruise ship,” Hood said. “This is something market forces will not address. In the UK, there is a lack of infrastructure in many ports, and varied grid strength – in Southampton, for example, the local grid is not strong enough to cover the demand.”
Meanwhile, cruise ship CO2 emissions in Europe rose by 17% between 2017 and 2022, reaching the equivalent of 50,000 flights between Paris and New York. Methane emissions rose more than 500% over the same period. Compared to flights more generally, cruises produce considerably more carbon emissions per passenger-kilometre: twice as much as the equivalent flights plus hotel stays for the same period.
All of that adds up to a hefty environmental cost. The primary reason is that it is impossible for the biggest cruise ships to carry the enormous batteries they would need to power their operations, and so burn fossil fuels instead – with a severe shortage of renewable hydrogen-based e-fuels to replace them. Some run on liquified natural gas (LNG) and call that a clean fuel because it produces less carbon dioxide than marine alternatives – but because it also produces methane throughout the supply chain and when some gas is not burned, the true climate impact is larger.
“The cruise industry are absolutely greenwashing when they call LNG a green measure,” Hood said. “We want to see these companies invest in genuinely cleaner fuels if they’re going to trumpet their green credentials as they do.”
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The calls for reform
Transport & Environment has produced a list of essential reforms, from limiting cruise ship traffic in areas vulnerable to marine and air pollution to demanding full industry disclosure of emissions for each ship to make greenwashing harder. It also proposes a tax on cruise tickets to raise additional climate finance, a measure that it estimates could raise €1.6bn a year at €50 a ticket.
But their first demand is for stricter rules around decarbonisation: enforcing the greater use of genuine e-fuels, connections to shore-side electricity while docked, and new decarbonisation requirements – tighter than current EU law, which requires an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared with 2020 levels.
The EU is bringing in significant penalties for sailing on dirty fuel from next year, which should incentivise the industry to change. The UK has no such scheme in place. “The UK’s strategy on this was supposed to be published in 2022, and it never appeared,” Hood said. “That has to happen without delay.”
Other than the surely universal desire to closely scrutinise any economic model that involves the provision of indoor waterfalls on the high seas, there are good reasons that cruise ships should be out in front on all of this. “They run more predictable routes than other shipping, they know exactly where they’re going to be and when, which makes it a lot easier to start to make these changes,” Hood said. “But at the moment, they’re a luxury industry, dumping their pollution on society and being allowed to get away with it.”
What else we’ve been reading
A little someone called – checks notes – Sally Rooney has a new book coming out, apparently? Here’s a handy rundown of the best novels hitting shelves this autumn, courtesy of our friends at the Observer, and featuring Rooney, Haruki Murakami, Ali Smith and many more. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
As Keir Starmer lays the groundwork for a tight budget, John Harris writes that Labour should keep in mind the grim lesson of the crisis in council provision for children with special educational needs and disabilities: “imposing cuts not only ruins lives but soon results in the reverse of what was intended: costs go up, often uncontrollably.” Archie
The Guardian’s Audio Long Reads team are revisiting some of their best episodes over the summer. Today’s instalment features Michael Aylwin’s unforgettable piece about his wife Vanessa’s struggle with Alzheimer’s, which is sure to strike a particular chord with anyone who has experience caring for a loved one. Hannah
Gillian Anderson has curated a new compilation of anonymous letters from women sharing their sexual fantasies. In an excellent and occasionally combative interview by Emma Brockes for Saturday magazine, she summarises what they reveal: “in our inner minds, in so many ways, we’re all the same”. Archie
From sleep spray to ceramics, I’m sure I’ll be buying some of the “16 affordable essentials the experts swear by”. Hannah
Sport
Premier League | Goals from Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah (above) gave Liverpool a 2-0 win over Brentford at Anfield. Earlier on Sunday, a 14-minute hat-trick from Noni Madueke helped Chelsea to an impressive 6-2 victory over Wolves, and Bournemouth were denied a late winner by a controversial VAR call in their 1-1 draw with Newcastle.
Golf | Lydia Ko won her third major championship by breaking free from a logjam of world-class talent to win the Women’s British Open by two strokes at St. Andrews, capping a summer that included her Olympic gold medal in Paris.
Formula One | Lando Norris won the Dutch Grand Prix to keep his hopes of winning the championship alive, closing the gap with Max Verstappen – who finished second – to 70 points. Verstappen has not won since the Spanish GP in June.
The front pages
The Guardian leads on the Middle East, with “Airstrikes on Hezbollah ‘not the end of the story’, says Netanyahu”. The Mirror has “Brink of War” as it also covers an escalation in the violence.
Elsewhere, more domestic issues. “PM under pressure over No 10 pass for donor”, says the Telegraph. The paper alleges a “growing cronyism row” over a security pass for a wealthy donor. The Mail takes a similar line with “Starmer in ‘passes for glasses’ sleaze row”. The Times looks ahead to Keir Starmer’s speech tomorrow with “Decade to rebuild Britain after Tories, says Starmer”. In the i, it’s “Cabinet split as Labour MPs fear voter backlash over winter fuel allowance cut”. In the Express, that backlash seems to take shape with “It’s a betrayal! Labour has no mandate to axe winter fuel payments”, according to the Conservatives.
And in the Financial Times, “Private equity’s appetite for China fades as Xi tightens grip on business”. The paper reports on the impact of geopolitical tensions on investment. And the Sun claims that Oasis are getting the band back together: “Definitely no maybes”.
Today in Focus
Black Box: episode 1 – The connectionists
This week, Today in Focus is revisiting the Black Box series. This episode – first broadcast in March 2024 – features the story of Geoffrey Hinton, a man who set out to understand the brain and ended up working with a group of researchers who invented a technology so powerful that even they do not truly understand how it works
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
Sign up for Inside Saturday to see more of Edith Pritchett’s cartoons, the best Saturday magazine content and an exclusive look behind the scenes
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
A woman who fled to the UK and devoted years to faithfully recreating dishes from her home country of Iran has inspired a one-woman play at London’s Soho theatre – with mouthwatering dishes cooked on stage. As Deborah Linton writes, Atoosa Sepehr’s story of finding hope in the kitchen – and later finding success with her own cookbook – is the basis for a new show, My English Persian Kitchen, by playwright Hannah Khalil.
Having left a bad marriage behind, Sepehr now says that cooking “was the one thing that gave me comfort, a sense of getting back to life.” The key element of the show, says Khalil, is “the strength of Atoosa as a person … I really wanted to retain as much of her voice, her beautiful turns of phrase. I want people to leave feeling joyous and hopeful.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
