Good morning. Yesterday afternoon the resignation of Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, added to the sense of instability surrounding Labour’s Downing Street operation, after days of damaging revelations about Peter Mandelson and renewed questions about the prime minister’s leadership.
Starmer’s personal ratings look set to fall further – and beyond the turmoil at No 10, Labour is also facing the prospect of severe losses in May’s elections for the Senedd in Wales and the parliament in Scotland. In both contests, the unpopularity of the Westminster government is exacerbating longer-term trends of Labour’s declining support.
We will return to McSweeney and Starmer later this week, and will be previewing the Holyrood elections with Libby Brooks soon. But for today’s newsletter I spoke to Bethan McKernan, our Wales correspondent, to explore what has led to this moment there, the prospects for for each of the major parties, and what the implications might be for the UK. First, the headlines.
Five big stories
UK politics | Keir Starmer is fighting to reassert control over his party after accepting the resignation of his closest adviser, Morgan McSweeney, amid anger over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.
Jeffrey Epstein | Noam Chomsky and his wife, Valeria, made a “grave mistake” and were “careless” not to thoroughly research the background of Jeffrey Epstein, Valeria Chomsky said in a lengthy statement, adding also that Epstein had deceived them.
Jimmy Lai | Jimmy Lai, the media mogul and prominent pro-democracy activist, has been sentenced to 20 years in prison in Hong Kong for national security offences, a punishment his daughter said could mean “he will die a martyr behind bars.”
US politics | Democrats will stop Donald Trump from trying to steal this year’s midterm elections, Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the US House of Representatives said.
Olympics | Andy Burnham is among local leaders backing a plan for a multi-city 2040 Olympics bid from the north of England.
In depth: Misunderstanding and underestimating Wales
Later this year, the Welsh people will go to the polls for a Senedd election like no other before it – not just because it will be held under a new voting system, with Wales divided into 16 constituencies, and six MSs elected in each via proportional representation, but because polling suggests the result could bring about a seismic change in Welsh politics.
The Welsh have been Labour’s most loyal voters for more than a century, returning the party to government in Cardiff at every election since devolution in 1999. Yet poll after poll now suggests Labour’s base has collapsed to the extent that the party could come third – or even fourth – in May.
Bethan says that should not come as a surprise to the party, which has been accused of mismanagement in the Welsh government and of “misunderstanding and underestimating” Wales in Westminster.
After what she describes as “absolutely bombshell” recent polling, giving them as much as a 14 point lead, Plaid Cymru are “in touching distance of an absolute majority – something supposedly impossible under the proportional representation principles of the system – the Greens could be going from zero to 11 seats, with Labour down to eight, and first minister Eluned Morgan [pictured below] potentially losing her seat”.
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A reckoning for Labour
Labour’s collapse in Wales has been apparent for some time, but the arrival of Keir Starmer and his unpopular government in Westminster appears to have hastened it. “The Vaughan Gething leadership crisis and the failure of the government to intervene over Tata Steel in Port Talbot had already weakened Labour,” Bethan tells me. “Starmer coming in was the nail in the coffin.”
There is deep public anger, she says, about public services in Wales, which have been Labour-run for decades and are now “in a worse state than in England” – something she believes is not widely understood across the UK.
There is also a sense that Welsh taxpayers are being asked to fund an expanded Senedd at the behest of Labour, while feeling poorer and seeing services deteriorate. Many people feel, she says, “that they already can’t do their job – so why are we spending more money on this?”
There are good reasons for expansion – currently each MS has too big a caseload, and is sitting on too many committees, while Cardiff council has more members than the Senedd and isn’t dealing with a national budget – but these reasons are not cutting through with the electorate.
Labour can’t simply blame 14 years of Tory mismanagement in London, says Bethan. It is now in power in Westminster and in Cardiff, and voters feel that things have “continued to go downhill in Wales”.
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A conservative realignment
The Conservatives have never really had deep roots in Wales, historically or culturally. While they have governed at Westminster, they have always struggled to build a durable base with Welsh voters – and recent polling suggests they now face the possibility of being wiped out entirely in the Senedd.
That collapse, Bethan stresses, should not be misread as a reason for the sudden surge in support for Reform UK. Rather, she sees it as a realignment of the small-‘c’ conservative vote, with voters who once defaulted to the Tories now moving to Nigel Farage’s party because it is the only viable option left to them.
Particularly interesting, then, is Reform’s decision to announce its new, freshly parachuted-in leader for Wales last week: former Barnet Tory council leader Dan Thomas. At a rally in Newport on Thursday, he described Reform’s “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to smash Labour’s failing grip in Wales.”
Thomas defected to Reform last year and has now returned to his home town of Blackwood, with Farage framing the move as bringing experience and credibility to their campaign.
He described Thomas as “battle hardened” and said there are plans to give him “full autonomy” over Welsh policy. Policy substance, meanwhile, is still in short supply. Reform has reiterated pledges to scrap the Welsh government’s 20mph speed limit in urban areas, and promised to revive coal mining and steelmaking in Port Talbot. Those latter proposals have been described by critics as technically impossible.
The appointment of Thomas is an attempt to draw a line for the party, whose previous Welsh leader was jailed for 10 and a half years in November for taking bribes to make statements in favour of Russia while he was an MEP. Reform’s polling has dipped from a peak of 29% in autumn last year to 23% now.
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A new centre of gravity?
While the question over whether Reform will hoover up former Tory votes remains, Plaid Cymru is certainly starting to look more like a government in waiting. The party’s historic win in a Caerphilly Sennedd byelection last year is certainly a hopeful, if not necessarily indicative, first sign.
Their manifesto commitments – including an eye-catching offer of free universal childcare – are serious, and Bethan says the party has spent years preparing themselves for the possibility of power rather than simply campaigning in opposition. Rhun ap Iorwerth, pictured above, looks increasingly likely to be first minister in Wales.
“They aren’t going to want to waste this opportunity,” she says. “The question Plaid Cymru always get is whether they are ready for this – can they actually run a government? As far as I can tell, they are pretty well prepared.”
The fortunes of the Green party are also looking good. The party is polling ahead of both Labour and Conservatives at the moment, after a surge in popularity in recent months. Bethan says the party has repeatedly revised its expectations upwards as polling improved, and that proportional representation means “there is no ceiling” on their potential support. “People don’t feel like they have to vote tactically any more,” she says.
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The post-Labour future
If polling holds true, then Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will be jostling to be the largest party. Bethan suspects Wales will end up with a minority Plaid Cymru government supported by the third-placed Greens, which could come with some stress points.
“There is daylight between them on some of the Greens’ core issues,” she says, including the building of new nuclear power facilities, which Plaid supports while the Greens oppose, and the future of agriculture in Wales – farmers form a crucial voting bloc, given more than 90% of Welsh land is farmed.
Losing Labour’s governing role in Cardiff, and the prospect of a Plaid-led government would be another deeply uncomfortable moment for Starmer’s leadership in Downing Street – if he lasts that long.
What else we’ve been reading
I still play Pokémon on my phone every single day without fail, and as the franchise hits a landmark birthday, Keza MacDonald has this lovely essay about its origins. Martin
Morgan McSweeney is gone, but if anyone in Labour thought this was the start of a Starmer revival, John Harris is ready with a cold dose of reality to dampen their spirits. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
The global publishing platform Substack is generating revenue from newsletters that promote virulent Nazi ideology, white supremacy and antisemitism, a Guardian investigation has found. Martin
How much money do billionaires need? A little bit more, always appears to be the answer. Ed Pilkington and Jeremy Barr dig deep into Jeff Bezos’s decision to gut the Washington Post – the newspaper of Watergate and the Pentagon Papers – despite having presented himself as its saviour when he bought it in 2013 and having a fortune of $245bn. Toby
Peter Capaldi is touring his own music for the first time this spring, and for the Quietus names his favourite 13 albums of all time, outing himself as still punk at heart. Martin
Sport
Football | Manchester City kept their title hopes alive with a comeback victory at Anfield, a 2-1 win secured courtesy a late penalty by Erling Haaland (pictured above).
Super Bowl | The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl champions for the second time in their history after beating the New England Patriots 29-13 at Levi’s Stadium.
Winter Olympics | Lindsey Vonn’s comeback came to a cruel end, crashing out on her first attempt at the downhill, with an air ambulance subsequently carrying her off the mountain. The US team later announced she was in a stable condition.
The front pages
“Starmer fights to regain control over party after McSweeney exit” is the Guardian splash. The Telegraph leads on “Starmer plays his last card as McSweeney leaves No 10”, the FT says “Starmer battles to save premiership after top aide McSweeney steps down” while the Mirror frames McSweeney’s exit as “Blame me”. “Operation save Starmer: No 10 chief forced out to buy PM time” is top story at the i paper, the Times has “PM’s top aide quits over support for Mandelson” and the Mail asks “So how long can Starmer cling on?”. Reporting on the Epstein files fallout, the Sun says “Andy Leaked Envoy Docs to Epstein”.
Today in Focus
A broken high street and its billionaire owners
The whole town centre of Newton Aycliffe in County Durham is owned by billionaire brothers – so why is it so run down? Josh Halliday reports.
Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Lisa Walker found a new way to connect with her sons after they left home: by still walking together as a family. On a 30-day Camino de Santiago trek, the family became “four adults negotiating the day,” no longer strictly parents and children. What started as a symbolic farewell as Lisa prepared to become an empty nester has become a lasting ritual.
“These walks give us unbroken, shared time in a world of fragmented attention,” she says, whether on the Larapinta Trail, the Three Capes Track or K’gari Great Walk. Through sore feet and democratic decisions they keep walking together. “Phones drop out of service. Conversations unfold slowly. We learn who each other has become.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
