Good morning. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad two weeks ago, Syria’s de facto government inherited a failed state. The task for rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is formidable: rewrite the constitution, bring the country’s disparate armed factions to heel, persuade international partners that their commitment to a pluralistic democracy is real – and reconstruct a shattered nation.
Events are moving fast: yesterday, Sharaa, who previously went by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, said that his administration would announce their new defence and military structure within days, and reiterated that all armed factions would be dissolved and their weapons brought under state control. Meanwhile, the visiting head of a UN investigative body said that it would likely be possible to gather enough evidence to secure war crimes convictions against members of the Assad regime.
But those steps are only a small part of the whole. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s Bethan McKernan in Damascus, about the scale of the challenge ahead. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Germany | The German government has vowed to investigate whether a Christmas market car attack that killed five people and injured 200 could have been prevented, after it emerged that authorities had received multiple warnings about the suspect.
Education | More than £100m was spent last year by local authorities and the government on failed efforts to block support for children and young people with special educational needs in England, according to analysis by the Guardian.
Politics | The treasurer of Reform UK has said that Elon Musk is among a “number of billionaires” interested in donating to Nigel Farage’s party, promising “political disruption like we have never seen before”.
Immigration and asylum | About 1 million people who need eVisas to prove their right to live and work in the UK or return after travelling abroad have not yet done so even though the deadline to register is just over a week away. Amid serious problems with the rollout, the government will allow people who have not applied by 31 December to make late applications.
Church of England | The archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell, has come under increased pressure after reports that he twice reappointed a priest at the heart of a sexual abuse case. The scandal is the second high-profile crisis to envelop the Church of England in recent months.
In depth: ‘The challenge is staggering and unique’
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s decision to revert to his real name is one symbol of the message HTS is attempting to send about the new Syria, but it is far from the only one. As well as reassurances about its democratic intentions and promises that there will be no factional retribution in the new Syria, officials from the de facto government consistently conduct interviews and meetings in suits rather than military fatigues.
“They are clearly sending a signal that they want the fighting to be over,” Bethan McKernan said. “And it isn’t something they’re doing suddenly: Sharaa has been cultivating this statesmanlike image in Idlib for years. But the scale of the challenge is staggering, and unique. Nobody has a gameplan, because two weeks ago, nobody thought it was possible.”
Here are some items on the extensive to-do list.
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Rebel factions and the army
After 11 years of civil war involving disparate rebel groups that ended with the sudden dissolution of an oppressive state, a major risk to Syria’s future is the prospect of those groups taking up arms again: hence the urgency of HTS’s attempts to bring weapons under state control.
In this piece for the Observer yesterday, Bethan wrote about Abu Obeida, a commander in the Northern Storm Brigade which once fought HTS but joined their assault on the Assad regime. “He’s been fighting since he was 14, and he says that he literally doesn’t know to do anything else, but he wants to be part of the new Syria. If people like him don’t have a place, they will go back to fighting HTS. Keeping a lid on those guys will be essential.”
As for the regime: Sharaa has promised leniency for conscripted members of Assad’s armed forces. This video report by DW in Homs shows former members of the military, including a former general, lining up to turn in weapons and military ID cards. Those who do so are issued receipts or new temporary ID with “defection card” printed across the top as proof.
“It’s tense, but it’s working,” Bethan said. “But they will also need to distinguish between those involved in unspeakable things who had little choice and those who were part of the regime.” Sharaa says that the names of senior members of the old regime complicit in war crimes are being compiled with a view to arresting them, or seeking their extradition where necessary, “so they may receive their just punishment”.
Wherever the line is drawn, reconciliation will not be easy. In this devastating piece, William Christou follows one woman, Alaa Qasar, as she searches for her missing father Moutaz. 31,000 people have been documented as having been released, he reports – but that leaves 100,000 unaccounted for, many of them likely dead.
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Reassuring minorities and women
Because of HTS’ history as an affiliate of al-Qaida, there has been some scepticism over whether it is really in a position to oversee a transition to a democratic, pluralistic society.
“People are afraid,” Bethan said. “Minorities like the Alawites, Assad’s sect, are worried about being targeted for the crimes of the regime. So far that’s not happening, but it is tense. One thing that really comes across travelling around the country is that these are just different worlds, that have been kept separate for 14 years because the regime kept it that way, and it’s not clear what the starting point for consensus will be.”
Sharaa has sought to calm fears of sectarian violence. In a meeting with members of the Druze religious minority, he said: “Syria must remain united. There must be a social contract between the state and all religions to guarantee social justice.” There has also been a promise not to impose religious dress codes on women, and Sharaa says that he believes in education for women, noting in this BBC interview that in rebel-held Idlib, “we’ve had universities for more than eight years”.
On the other hand, Bethan noted, Sharaa was evasive in the same interview about whether the hijab would be mandatory. “We should take what he’s saying seriously, and the fact that they’re engaging at all is a good thing – but it’s also true that he sees himself as a spiritual, religious person, and some of this is against what he believes in on a personal level.”
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Rebuilding infrastructure
“The scale of the devastation is just astonishing,” Bethan said. “The whole country is in ruins, other than a couple of bougie neighbourhoods in Damascus. Everywhere else feels like a battleground.”
The costs of reconstruction are hard to pin down, but estimates from 2019 quoted by the Carnegie Middle East Center put them at somewhere between $250bn and $400bn. In 2010, Syria’s GDP was estimated at $60bn. But the oil and agriculture industries which were once mainstays of the country’s economy have since been devastated, and the official GDP figure in 2023 stood at $10bn.
Support from international partners will therefore be crucial to any attempt to rebuild the country. The EU and US still have sanctions in place for now, and say that they will only be lifted subject to significant steps towards an inclusive, non-sectarian government; one significant milestone on Friday was Washington’s decision to remove a $10m bounty on Sharaa.
But while most experts say that helping to rebuild Syria is a vital step for western security, Donald Trump may not be willing to provide US support. In 2018, his administration contributed nothing to an $8bn UN fund for humanitarian aid, an unprecedented refusal.
“I think it is likely that Gulf states will pay for a lot of the reconstruction,” Bethan said. “They have the resources to do so. But it is a mammoth task. The UN said that it could take 80 years to rebuild Gaza; for Syria you have to multiply that up.”
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A constitution and new elections
If Syria is to establish itself as a stable, peaceful state, it will need to embed the new settlement in the country’s democratic institutions – starting with parliament.
To that end, a spokesperson for the new government said that the Syrian constitution and parliament would be suspended during a three-month transition period, and a judicial and human rights committee established to propose amendments to the constitution.
It is likely that any new constitution will seek to include safeguards against a return to autocratic rule, like requirements for a supermajority for major constitutional changes and guarantees of seats in parliament for minorities.
One question is whether exiled members of civil society will be brought into the process: “There are people in the diaspora who have been working on ways to put the country back together for 14 years,” Bethan said. “They could be hugely important. But whether HTS thinks that is another question, and these are not people who are likely to pick up guns to guarantee their place in the conversation.”
The Guardian’s leading article today calls on Sharaa to “entrust drafting the constitution to an elected assembly or one inclusive of Syrian diversity, not a hand-picked committee of like-minded allies.” Sharaa, for his part, has said that the constitution will be written by “a Syrian committee of legal experts” and that “any ruler or president will have to follow the law”. He pointed to HTS’s rule in Idlib as a useful template for the national project.
That is a vexed reference point, Bethan said. “Idlib is not a free place – you can go up to someone on the street and ask what they think of HTS, and they’re not going to say they hate them. It is orderly, but not free. That was preferable to Assad for a lot of people when he was still in power. But now he is gone, the whole horizon is open.”
What else we’ve been reading
For the Guardian’s ‘what happened next’ series, Simon Hattenstone speaks to Alan Bates and his wife Suzanne about the post office scandal and its impact on their lives. It’s a lovely interview, capturing how much they feel is left to do – but also the surreal happiness that came with a knighthood and marriage on Richard Branson’s private island (pictured above). Archie
Elon Musk has muscled his way to the top of US political debate. Now it seems he has his eyes elsewhere too with suggestions he could inject £80m into Reform UK. Ben Quinn and Dan Milmo examine the extent to which the tech billionaire’s ideology genuinely matches that of the British party. Nimo
Lots to get your teeth into over the next week in Saturday magazine’s Christmas puzzles special, but I particularly loved this piece, in which the Guardian’s crossword editor Alan Connor introduces six people who have made a career from setting them. God, their jobs sound like fun. Archie
Despite numerous investigations concluding that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, the facts on the ground do not change. Nesrine Malik writes that the outrage matters nonetheless: “These reports document the fact that a crime is taking place … [they] will prevent, or at least compromise, attempts to rewrite history.” Archie
In this thoughtful personal essay for the Cut, Dr Lilly Jay writes about her experience being thrust into the spotlight, months after giving birth, because of her former husband’s new relationship with one of the most famous celebrities in the world. Nimo
Sport
Premier League | “Liverpool’s domination was almost total. Their press was suffocating. Whenever a Spurs player had the ball, which was not very often, he invariably felt the heat,” David Hytner writes about Liverpool’s 6-3 victory over Tottenham, featuring two goals from Mohamed Salah (above). In the day’s other matches, Wolves beat Leicester 3-0, and Manchester United succumbed to Bournemouth by the same scoreline. Chelsea v Everton and Fulham v Southampton both ended 0-0.
Football | Gareth Southgate has revealed he decided to step down as England manager before the end of Euro 2024. Southgate said in the immediate aftermath of England’s 2-1 final defeat to Spain in July that he would “speak to the right people” about his future.
Darts | The two-time winner Gary Anderson crashed out of the PDC World Darts Championship with a shock second-round defeat by Jeffrey de Graaf. The Scot, champion in 2015 and 2016, hit just three of his 20 checkout attempts as he was whitewashed 3-0 to fall in his opening match of the tournament for the first time.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Revealed: £100m spent to thwart special needs claims”, on the amount spent last year by local authorities and the government on failed efforts to block support for children and young people with special educational needs in England. The Times reports “Economic outlook is frustrating, says Labour”, while the Mail splashes with “Economy is heading for ‘worst of all worlds’”
i leads with “Pension protest: PM faces biggest rebellion yet in new year vote”. The Financial Times says “Candy vows to help Reform disrupt UK politics ‘like we have never seen’”. The Telegraph has “Mandelson set to work with Farage on Trump”, on the next ambassador to the US. The Sun splashes with “Fury: It’s not over” after the heavyweight boxer Tyson Fury’s loss to Oleksandr Usyk.
Today in Focus
A radical way to teach contested history
Helen Pidd visits Lancaster Royal grammar school to see the work of Parallel Histories, an education charity which helps young people make sense of contested history.
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In 2021, Sam Wolfson found himself alone on Christmas morning because of some bad luck. But what started as a festive flop turned around when a new friend (Caitlin, pictured above) came to the rescue. Sam was warmly welcomed into her family’s home for a Korean Christmas celebration on the Upper East Side. The evening was filled with delicious cold noodle salad, vegetable pancakes, card games and shared laughter. Though the friendship eventually drifted, as many do, the experience stands as a beautiful reminder of how strangers can become family, if only for one special day.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
