Good morning. On Saturday, almost 26 years after the Good Friday agreement was signed, a nationalist was sworn in as first minister of Northern Ireland for the first time. At Stormont, Michelle O’Neill, the deputy leader of Sinn Féin, promised to be “a first minister for all”. But in an interview with Sky News broadcast yesterday, she said that a referendum on a united Ireland could come within 10 years. “I believe we’re in the decade of opportunity,” she said. “A nationalist republican was never supposed to be first minister. This all speaks to that change.”
Last night, Rishi Sunak arrived in Northern Ireland to meet with O’Neill and the DUP’s deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly and emphasised that he was in “a special part of our United Kingdom”. Sinn Féin’s leader Mary Lou McDonald said last week that a united Ireland was “within touching distance”. But while there’s no doubt that O’Neill’s ascent is a landmark moment in Northern Ireland, the 10-year horizon she acknowledged also speaks to the fact that there are still vast obstacles to a referendum on the region’s future.
Today’s newsletter explains the factors bringing a historic change closer – and why it still appears a long way off. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Middle East | US airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East were just the beginning of a sustained response, the White House national security adviser warned on Sunday. Jake Sullivan refused to rule out strikes on Iran itself, which would be a major escalation that the US has so far been determined to avoid.
Equality | A Labour government would extend the full right to equal pay that now exists for women to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) workers and disabled workers for the first time under radical plans for a draft race equality act seen by the Guardian. Read Pippa Crerar’s analysis.
UK news | The woman left seriously injured in the Clapham chemical attack came to Britain for safety as an asylum seeker from Afghanistan, the Guardian has learned, as police offered a £20,000 reward for the capture of the suspected assailant. Abdul Ezedi remains the target of a huge manhunt after Wednesday’s attack.
Health | A test that can detect oesophageal cancer at an earlier stage than current methods should be made more widely available to prevent deaths, charities have said. The capsule sponge test, previously known as Cytosponge, involves a patient swallowing a dissolvable pill on a string.
Grammys | Women dominated the Grammys this year with Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, SZA and Miley Cyrus taking home the night’s major awards. Swift made history as the first person to win album of the year for the fourth time, taking home the award for Midnights.
In depth: Is a united Ireland really ‘within touching distance’?
The paralysis at Stormont might be over – but with the return of power-sharing and a republican first minister, renewed questions about the region’s constitutional future will inevitably come in its place. But although Sinn Féin’s new authority is a crucial symbol, it is not enough on its own to bring a change substantively closer.
Here are some of the key factors on both sides of the question.
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Why a united Ireland might be moving closer
Gridlock at Stormont suggests the current arrangement is failing. While the paralysis of the last two years has been particularly acute, for 40% of the time since they were formed by the Good Friday agreement, Northern Ireland’s democratic institutions have been dormant. The UK parliament’s Northern Ireland committee concluded in a December report that “the threat of collapse looms large over the institutions, with a pervasive culture of dispute rather than business-like cooperation … The result is a highly temperamental system of government.”
The rise of parties with neither unionist nor nationalist identities, with the two top jobs reserved for representatives of those two traditions, meanwhile raises the possibility of a much more democratically unsatisfying situation – where non-sectarian parties hold a majority of public support but have no access to the machinery of power.
While that is a source of frustration on all sides, the failure of Northern Ireland’s institutions is perhaps ultimately more harmful for those who wish them to remain in place. There is a good chance that in the Irish republic, Mary Lou McDonald will become taoiseach at the next election: the reality of Sinn Féin rule on both sides of the border could form a powerful symbol of a more coherent political future.
Brexit – and the state of the UK generally – are a poor advert for unionism. In October, the writer and campaigner Emma DeSouza wrote about some of the factors that could make a united Ireland more likely. “Someone’s position on whether Ireland should be unified used to be solely about whether they cleaved to one of two ideological positions,” she wrote. “But there are now clear economic arguments, and the possibility of remaining inside the EU, that are proving persuasive.”
Crucially, Brexit has already tilted Northern Ireland’s economy further towards the Republic and Europe. The value of goods sold from Great Britain to Northern Ireland dropped by 2.4% in 2022, figures released last month showed, while imports from Ireland rose by 4.8%, and those from the rest of the EU rose 8.3%.
While the rest of the UK remains Northern Ireland’s biggest external market, the comparison with the Irish economy remains a stark one for residents of the UK’s poorest region.
As Adam Ramsay noted in this OpenDemocracy piece last summer, while Westminster’s control of Stormont’s finances since the DUP’s boycott began has widely been described as a “punishment budget”, growth in the Republic of Ireland is outstripping the UK’s, and gross national income per capita is 50% higher. Ireland is also significantly more equal: “It is much, much better to be poor in the Republic of Ireland than it is to be poor in the United Kingdom,” political scientist Brendan O’Leary told Ramsay.
Demographic changes favour a united Ireland. Support for reunification in Northern Ireland has been rising steadily since the Good Friday agreement was signed, while the proportion of people who describe themselves as unionists has gradually fallen. Younger voters are much more likely to support reunification: in 2022, 57% of 18 to 24-year-olds said that they would vote “yes” if a border poll were held immediately.
Catholics now outnumber Protestants. And in local elections last year, votes for pro-unification parties beat those for pro-union parties for the first time. Sinn Féin’s success in the 2022 election and O’Neill’s landmark ascent to the first minister post plainly reflect those changes. University of Liverpool politics professor Jon Tonge told the Guardian’s Rory Carroll last week: “I don’t think there ever will be a unionist first minister in Northern Ireland again. It’s over.”
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Why it’s still a distant prospect
Stormont may be paradoxically strengthened by Sinn Féin’s leadership. On Saturday, Michelle O’Neill promised to “make power-sharing work” on everything from the cost of living to infrastructure to violence against women. And even if the region’s problems are profound, there will likely be a number of high profile actions in the weeks and months ahead, from resolving public sector pay disputes to wider investment in public services using the money provided as part of the UK government’s deal.
O’Neill’s promises show that she is aware that, first and foremost, voters expect her to focus on the bread and butter issues rather than the constitutional question. As Rory Carroll notes here, if Sinn Féin is to maintain its support in Northern Ireland, “it must focus on improving Northern Ireland’s economy, public services and infrastructure. To show, in other words, that the state it wants to abolish works.”
Reunification is not a priority for most people. Despite those demographic changes, Sinn Féin’s recent success has largely come at the expense of smaller republican parties rather than any wider vote-switch. The DUP, in contrast, has seen its votes taken by smaller unionist parties – who would certainly still vigorously oppose a united Ireland.
While younger voters might feel differently, the overall poll numbers still suggest that supporters of reunification are outnumbered: most recent surveys have shown that somewhere between 45% and 51% of people oppose reunification, against 30-36% in favour, with the rest undecided. ‘Yes’ to reunification does much better if the question is framed as something for 15-20 years’ time.
The conditions for a new referendum are still a long way from being met. The Good Friday agreement leaves the decision over a border poll to the UK secretary of state for Northern Ireland, and says simply that it should happen if “at any time it appears likely … that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”
That language is very vague – but as Lisa O’Carroll explains in this piece from 2022, experts suggest that there would have to be consistent polling showing that 51-55% of voters would back reunification, as well as election results and qualitative research pointing in the same direction. The government paper setting out the deal with the DUP explicitly says that “on the basis of all recent polling, the government sees no realistic prospect of a border poll” for “decades to come”. While support continues to rise, the conditions for a referendum are still a long way from being met.
What else we’ve been reading
ICYMI: Catherine Shoard’s interview with Michael J Fox is well worth your time. They discuss how he copes living with Parkinson’s, after being diagnosed aged 29, and his foundation that has raised more than $2bn for research into the disease. Nimo
Ahead of the start of the final season of Larry David’s Curb Your Enthusiasm tonight, Stuart Heritage mourns with show stalwarts Susie Essman and Jeff Garlin. “I can’t think of any other job that I would have so much creative input,” says Essman. “Every piece of filth that comes out of my mouth, that’s mine.” Archie
Despite the promise of making therapy more accessible, mental health apps are now under increased scrutiny. David Cox talks to experts to find out why. Nimo
Nesrine Malik writes that women in Gaza have faced a disproportionate and devastating effect from Israel’s invasion – a fact that has been de-emphasised by mainstream feminist discourse. “Palestinian women are seen as not sharing the sort of values that are called upon to come to their rescue,” she argues. Archie
Stuart A Reid, whose baby daughter was diagnosed with a devastating rare genetic disorder soon after her birth, wrote an extraordinarily uplifting piece for Slate about how he and his family have picked up the pieces. “Force yourself to move forward, no matter what,” he writes. “You can handle more than you could ever have imagined.” Archie
Sport
Premier League | Arsenal breathed new life into their title hopes with a 3-1 victory against league leaders Liverpool, cutting their rivals’ lead at the top to two points. Alejandro Garnacho scored twice to help Manchester United to a 3-0 win against West Ham. Callum Hudson-Odoi’s strike rescued Nottingham Forest, who drew 1-1 against Bournemouth. Wolves beat Chelsea 4-2 thanks to Matheus Cunha scoring a hat-trick.
Cricket | England slipped to 198-6 a few minutes ago in the second test against India, leaving the hosts just four wickets short of victory. Zack Crawley’s brilliant 73 gave England hope of an unlikely chase of 399, but three wickets for Ravichandran Ashwin reeled the tourists back in. Follow the latest on the live blog.
Women’s Super League | Nikita Parris continued her fine form for Manchester United, scoring in each half to help her side to secure a 2-0 win against Brighton. Parris’ eight goals in 12 league games this season have prompted many to wonder whether she is due an England call-up, having missed out on the squad for the World Cup.
The front pages
The Guardian’s headline covers Middle East airstrikes with “US says airstrikes on Iran-linked militias are just the beginning”. It’s a theme continued in many of the papers with the i saying “Hunt expected to bolster Red Sea military power in budget defence spending boost,” referring to the Chancellor’s upcoming budget. In the Financial Times the headline is “Iran ran sanctions-evading network with Lloyds and Santander accounts”. The paper alleges Iran used two of the UK’s biggest banks to move money around the world.
The Telegraph leads with “Forty barge migrants convert to Christianity,” as the paper reports that laws around the role of the church and asylum claims may be tightened. In the Times the headline is “Public want digital pass for all their GP records,” saying there is support for a “universal health passport”.
The Daily Mail leads with “Brianna’s mum: limit phones for under-16s” after Esther Ghey called for new legislation. The Mirror headlines with “Horrifying” after a woman was mauled to death by dogs. And in the Sun, it’s “Prem ace in rehab for party gas,” as the paper reports a footballer has become the first to go to rehab for a laughing gas addiction.
Today in Focus
The disposable vape ban
Vapes are often used by smokers to help them quit cigarettes, but in recent years more British children have taken up the habit. So is a ban the right course of action? Michael Safi speaks to Sarah Boseley
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
An “edible meadow” designed by gardeners Chris Hull and Sid Hill is to be displayed at the Chelsea flower show. The garden will be filled with diverse flowers and plants that can enhance gut health by being eaten or just walked past. After debuting in Chelsea, the garden will be moved to the Apricot Centre in Totnes, Devon, which caters for children in care, giving them space to play and learn on the sustainable farm.
Having your own gut-healthy garden is also very doable, Hull says. They key is “growing your own food … perennial crops to get more wildlife in [and] growing more diverse plants.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
