Good morning. Joe Biden’s momentous announcement that he is dropping out of the presidential race may soon be remembered as inevitable – but if so, it only started to look that way once it had happened. Even as the president announced his withdrawal, campaign aides were calling Democratic convention delegates to shore up their support, Politico reported; blindsided White House officials were “finding out by tweet”.
That’s not to say the decision was surprising. With more and more party leaders and donors urging Biden to quit, publicly or privately, in recent days, the president cut a deeply isolated figure. After the announcement, in contrast, Democrats fell in line to describe him as a selfless American hero – and many of them echoed his endorsement of his vice-president, Kamala Harris.
One measure of the hope the decision brought with it: stagnant donations immediately rocketed, and by this afternoon, she is likely to have raised more money in a 24-hour period than any other candidate in US history.
The urgent questions now: will anyone challenge Harris for the nomination? How would she campaign for the presidency, and how would Republicans attack her? And can she do what Joe Biden concluded he could not, and beat Donald Trump in November? Today’s newsletter takes you through Biden’s historic decision, and what might come next. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
UK politics | Rachel Reeves has indicated that the government could agree above-inflation pay rises for teachers and other public sector workers, saying there is “a cost to not settling” pay negotiations. Reports suggest independent pay review bodies had advised increases of about 5.5%.
Crowdstrike outage | NHS patients have been warned GP services “cannot be resumed immediately” as the effects of Friday’s global IT outage continue. While computer systems have largely returned to normal, some knock-on effects are ongoing, with some stranded air travellers facing days of further delays.
Immigration | Indonesian workers who paid thousands of pounds to travel to Britain and pick fruit at a farm supplying most big supermarkets have been sent home within weeks for not picking fast enough. One of the workers said he had sold his family’s land, as well as his and his parents’ motorbikes, to cover the more than £2,000 cost of coming to Britain in May.
UK news | Six people, including two children, have died in a collision between a car and a motorbike in West Yorkshire. Police called the incident “absolutely tragic” and said the A61 near Barnsley would remain closed for some time.
Pollution | Real-time water quality monitors are being installed at wild swimming spots and beaches across southern England to help people assess their immediate risk of getting ill from polluted water.
In depth: A historic exit transforms the race for the White House
“It has been the greatest honour of my life to serve as your president,” Joe Biden said in a letter to the American public yesterday. “And while it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.”
With that – but no televised address until later in the week – he threw the presidential race into astonishing flux. Precedents are hard to find. Biden is the first incumbent to decline to seek re-election since Lyndon Johnson in 1968, and no major party candidate has ever stood aside this close to election day.
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Biden’s decision
The pressure on Biden that began in earnest after his disastrous debate performance had reached fever pitch in recent days, with a series of tepid media appearances failing to persuade the Democratic establishment that he would be able to beat Trump.
For weeks, he forcefully rejected the calls to step aside – but there were reports on Friday that he had become more receptive to those arguments. Last night, the New York Times reported that on Saturday he summoned two of his closest advisers to the vacation home in Delaware where he was recovering from Covid, and worked with them long into the night to draft the letter announcing his withdrawal.
Only his family and closest aides were told on Saturday: most of his advisers got the news just a minute before he posted the letter on social media. Reuters reported that the decision came after Biden pored over internal polling data which showed him behind Trump in six critical swing states, and collapsing in others that had been previously been safely in his column.
In the aftermath of his decision, many senior Democrats praised him as a patriot who had put his country’s future before his own interests. “It’s a testament to Joe Biden’s love of country – and a historic example of a genuine public servant once again putting the interests of the American people ahead of his own,” wrote Barack Obama.
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What happens now
While Joe Biden won the Democratic primaries at a canter, his status as the party’s nominee had not yet been officially confirmed. As Joan E Greve sets out in this useful explainer, the delegates who are pledged to vote for Biden at the party’s convention next month will now be released from their obligation.
In theory, that could mean an open “floor fight” in which candidates vie for the delegates’ votes. The Democratic National Committee chair, Jaime Harrison, said yesterday that the process would be “transparent and orderly”. The DNC’s rules committee said last night that it would meet on Wednesday to settle on the process.
Kamala Harris quickly declared her candidacy after Biden’s announcement. She has no automatic right to Biden’s delegates as his vice-president, but his endorsement plus the explicit support of many prominent figures in the party mean there is a very good chance she will run unopposed, or be a strong favourite even if someone stands against her.
In her favour is wariness among the Democratic establishment of a chaotic display to the public in an open battle at the convention – alongside worries that Black and female voters could turn away from the party if Harris were to be denied the nomination that some feel she has already earned. Others argue that it could be an electrifying debate with the potential to garner huge public interest.
Either way, that theory will only be tested if a serious rival emerges, which looks increasingly unlikely. One potential candidate, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, quickly said yesterday that she would not stand; another governor, Gavin Newsom of California, has repeatedly said that he would not stand against Harris. Both endorsed her last night, along with more than 100 other elected Democrats.
Last night, Axios reported that Harris was already calling senior Democrats to try to lock down the nomination. While many senior figures including the Clintons have already backed her, Barack Obama was not among them, reportedly because he believes he can make the most impact by waiting until a nominee is confirmed.
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Harris’s strengths
Harris does a bit better than Biden in match-up polls against Donald Trump: they were tied with 44% each in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, giving her a two-point advantage over Biden in the same poll. She also has slightly higher approval ratings than Biden.
While those figures do not make an overwhelming case for her nomination, her supporters argue that they could quickly improve as she is introduced to the public with a unified and excited Democratic party behind her. And they point to her recent record in attacking Trump, as well as being a prominent voice for Biden on abortion, as evidence for the theory that she could be a nimble and energetic campaigner against the Republican candidate.
Harris is viewed as a moderate who succeeded in California with a “tough on crime” message but later recast herself as a progressive reformer. The contrast between a 59-year-old former prosecutor, who would be the first woman and the first woman of colour to be elected president, and a 78-year-old convicted criminal is another source of optimism, underlined by this ad from her 2020 campaign that was widely shared yesterday. And Harris’s supporters hope that she could shore up Democratic support among the significant number of younger voters and people of colour who polls show have been drawn to Trump.
Another point in her favour is a highly practical one: it will be much simpler for her to access Biden’s hefty $240m war chest – and the significant funds now pouring in from donors who had suspended their contributions – than for any candidate who was not part of his campaign. Vox has a useful explainer of the significant hurdles facing any other candidate.
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Harris’s weaknesses
While she looks like a stronger candidate than Biden, that’s a pretty low bar. Democrats who oppose her coronation as the nominee ask an obvious question: if we’re prepared to go through the pain of forcing Biden out, surely we shouldn’t then nominate his vice-president by default?
That argument is bolstered by the evidence of Harris’s previous run at the presidency, which sputtered out after her support fell into the low single digits and saw her described by the New York Times as “an uneven campaigner who changes her message and tactics to little effect”.
This Washington Post piece from Saturday reports that many of her supporters say that she has become a far more effective political communicator and strategist since then. But she struggled to carve out an effective role in the vice-presidency too, being saddled with a difficult policy portfolio including immigration and the failed voting rights bill, where Biden eventually cut her out of negotiations with lawmakers.
Perhaps the most fundamental problem for Harris: in what could be a “change” election, she will have to run on Biden’s record. So far, the Republican playbook appears to be to link her to it indelibly, and to claim that she failed to warn the public about Biden’s allegedly declining faculties.
It remains to be seen if those attacks will work – and Harris’s nomination is not yet certain. But whatever comes next, Democrats are significantly more optimistic today. One of the dominant reactions to emerge after Trump’s rambling convention speech last week was: this guy is confident, but he is also very beatable. As Moira Donegan wrote in an opinion piece last night: “In withdrawing from the presidential race, Biden has given the country a fighting chance to defeat Trump.”
What else we’ve been reading
For the latest interview in the Guardian’s Fascinating Olympians series, Simon Hattenstone meets Victoria Pendleton (above) – who won gold in 2008 and 2012 as well as multiple world titles but felt crushed by the way she was treated within the sport. “ I will always feel a sense of underachievement,” she says. “I always wanted more for myself.” Archie
Michael Segalov’s profile of political broadcaster Lewis Goodall tracks the 35-year-old’s rise through and exit from the BBC, the explosive popularity of the News Agents podcast, and how his working class roots have shaped his worldview and career. Nimo
Tom Lamont has written a superb exploration of the complexities of life as a so-called “stealth Jew”, whose heritage isn’t instantly obvious to others, and the nagging sense since 7 October that even among friends there might be a “phantom conversation, less restrained, that would be taking place if I wasn’t present”. Archie
“Food is deeply political,” says restaurateur and UN World Food Programme advocate Asma Khan in an interview with Kate Mossman. Over Afghan food, the pair discuss how Khan came into the world of food and why it has taken over her life. Nimo
Can Labour keep the populist right at bay? David Kynaston argues that history says it can, if Keir Starmer avoids “privileging highly educated, self-perpetuating ‘meritocratic’ elites over the mass of working people”. Archie
Sport
Golf | Xander Schauffele won the Open at Royal Troon, finishing nine shots under par and two ahead of Justin Rose and Billy Horschel. Schauffele becomes the first player to win two majors in the same season since 2015.
Cycling | Tadej Pogacar sealed victory in the Tour de France with victory in the final time trial in Nice. His success means that he is the first winner of the Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double in the 21st century.
Cricket | Shoaib Bashir helped himself to a flurry of West Indian wickets after hundreds from Joe Root and Harry Brook set up England’s series-clinching 241-run win at Trent Bridge. Chasing an unlikely target of 385, the tourists were demolished for 143 in just 36.1 overs as rookie spinner Bashir claimed five for 41.
The front pages
Global front pages are dominated by the news of Joe Biden’s decision: a full round-up of those in the UK and elsewhere is here. “Biden quits race” is our rightfully large Guardian splash headline this morning, while the Financial Times says “Biden pulls out of White House race and endorses Harris as his successor”. “Biden bows out” – that’s the Metro. The Daily Mail has “Biden out … Kamala in?” – under the strapline “American in turmoil”. “Private care home for kids shut over ‘abuse’” is the Daily Mirror’s lead story – the US news goes into a puff along the top with the text “Biden quits race to stay president”. The Times’ headline might not surprise: “Biden quits the race”. The Daily Telegraph cuts that down to “Biden quits race”. Both the Daily Express and the i shorten it even further to “Biden quits” – which is really too short, because you could easily take it as meaning he has resigned from the presidency.
Today in Focus
President Biden steps aside
In a special episode of Politics Weekly America shared on the Today in Focus feed this morning, Jonathan Freedland and Nikki McCann Ramirez discuss the extraordinary news of Joe Biden’s decision
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
For this week’s A new start after 60 column, Ammar Kalia meets Julian Lee, who became a blacksmith in retirement. After 40 years working in education for London councils, Lee wanted to try something new and rekindle his childhood love of crafting. “Blacksmithing knives is a beautiful combination of producing art and something with a practical use,” says Lee. “It feels amazing to do something with your hands, and once you start making these objects, you don’t want to stop.”
It isn’t without its challenges. “The anvil was the heaviest thing I’ve ever handled,” he says. “It took three of my friends to get it into the garden”. But Lee takes great satisfaction from his work – and has even taken on an apprentice.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
