Good morning. “It is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger and insecurity and instability in the world,” the UK’s foreign secretary David Cameron said yesterday. “The lights are absolutely flashing red, as it were, on the global dashboard.”
Cameron was referring, above all, to the regional instability unleashed by the war in Gaza. On Thursday, the UK and US launched strikes on more than 60 targets in Yemen, with the aim of degrading the Houthi militia’s ability to hit cargo ships in the Red Sea. Rishi Sunak will address MPs about the strikes today; Joe Biden has previously been cautious of any step that might trigger an unpredictable military response, and his secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Thursday, “I don’t think the conflict is escalating.” But like Cameron, he acknowledged that “there are lots of danger points”.
Last night, the US said that a missile targeting one of its warships had been intercepted, and a Houthi spokesperson said that further attacks could involve hundreds of drones and missiles – which would be a significant escalation.
But the Houthis are far from the only players – and no one can predict exactly what it would take for one of these “danger points” to precipitate a wider conflict. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s international security correspondent Jason Burke, is about how to think about the risks. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Health | An unprecedented medicines shortage in the NHS is endangering lives, pharmacists have said, as unpublished figures reveal that the number of products in short supply has doubled in two years. Causes of the crisis are thought to include the falling purchasing value of the pound and a government policy of taxing manufacturers. Read Daniel Boffey’s analysis.
Channel crossings | Five people have died and a sixth is in a critical condition after getting into difficulty in icy waters trying to reach the UK from northern France, the French maritime authority has said. The victims were part of a group of more than 70 people attempting to board boats off the seaside resort of Wimereux.
Iceland | Houses have caught fire in the fishing town of Grindavík in south-west Iceland after a volcano erupted for the second time in less than a month. Two fissures formed near the town on Sunday after an increase in seismic activity that prompted authorities to evacuate the community the day before.
Davos | The world’s five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes to £681.5bn since 2020, while the world’s poorest 60% have lost money. The details from Oxfam come as the world’s richest people gather for the annual World Economic Forum meeting of political leaders, corporate executives and the super-rich.
Monarchy | The only rehearsal for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral had a band at the wrong start point, a Gentleman at Arms nearly crushed at Marble Arch and “everything that could go wrong … go wrong”, a new biography on King Charles has said. One official called the rehearsal “a comedy of errors”.
In depth: How an accidental escalation could happen
It’s now 101 days since the Hamas attack that started Israel’s war in Gaza. Since then, Israel has killed about 24,000 people, and about 85% of the Gazan population has been displaced. “It is unadulterated, brutal violence in Gaza,” said Jason Burke, who is currently reporting from Jerusalem. “But across the region, a lot of what has happened is performative – it is about actors sending messages in a very complex, constantly evolving situation.”
There are still important factors holding back an escalation that spirals out of control. But, Jason said, “there is definitely more tension about the possibility than a couple of months ago. The situation feels much more volatile.”
Here’s a primer on some of the reasons why.
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Damage to Houthis is limited – and they could seek to respond
The US/UK strikes in Yemen, carried out with the support of the Netherlands, Australia, Canada and Bahrain, came in response to 26 attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia on vessels passing through the Red Sea – jeopardising a major trade route linking Asia to Europe and the US. The Houthis say that the attacks will only stop when “the Israeli war on the people of Gaza stops”.
The attacks have hit radar systems, drone storage and launch sites; according to the Houthis’ spokesperson, five of its members have been killed. The operation is intended to re-establish deterrence and offer some protection to commercial shipping, rather than wipe the Houthi forces off the map.
But US officials quoted by the New York Times say that the Houthis retain about three-quarters of their ability to fire on shipping. “It’s almost impossible to completely eradicate those kind of capabilities with a couple of rounds of airstrikes,” Jason said. “These are mobile facilities in a big country – you’d need unbelievably good intelligence, fantastic accuracy, and quite a lot of luck.”
That may mean more strikes in the coming days. “If you don’t act against the Houthis in the Red Sea, you are going to see more attacks,” David Cameron said yesterday.
But in this piece, Patrick Wintour hears from analysts who fear the opposite impact. “The Houthis are far more savvy, prepared and well-equipped than many western commentators realise,” Farea al Muslimi, from the Chatham House Middle East programme, said. “Their recklessness and willingness to escalate in the face of a challenge are always underrated.”
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Tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah could prompt a crisis
Before 7 October, Israel’s chief security preoccupation was the situation on its northern border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s forces are massed and have long been engaged in low-level exchanges with IDF forces on the other side. In this piece, Jason calls the group “the biggest and most capable member of [Iran’s] ‘axis of resistance’”, the proxy forces across the Middle East under the influence of Tehran.
“They are a more formidable foe than Hamas,” he said. “More soldiers, more experienced in something closer to conventional warfare, with a massive stock of more powerful and accurate weapons. They could effectively overwhelm Israeli missile defences if they launch enough of them at the same time.”
About 80,000 Israelis have been evacuated from communities near the border amid fears of an incursion similar to Hamas’ attack in the south – and while that has not materialised, the increased frequency of rockets and artillery shells into Israel has made the evacuees’ return impossible.
Israel’s targeted assassinations of senior Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, as well as incidents including a guided missile attack by Hezbollah which killed two people yesterday, have been seen as potentially escalatory and a breach of the accepted “rules” of the ongoing skirmishes.
Neither side has much appetite for the situation to deteriorate further, Jason said. “Realistically, Israel doesn’t have the capacity for another conflict – they have to draw down troops from Gaza to send them to the north, and there is a cost to that. Hezbollah don’t want a war yet, and the Iranians don’t want to see them badly degraded, which is the best case scenario.”
But the more tit-for-tat incidents happen, the greater the chance of an accident which leaves the other side feeling forced to respond. The day after the funeral of one of the senior commanders killed by Israel last week, Hezbollah attacked Israel’s northern command base, Jason noted. No injuries or damage were reported in the incident – “But what would have happened if a senior general and a couple of his aides had been killed?”
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Iran has a history of avoiding confrontation – but accidents happen
Central to all of this is Iran’s strategy of relying on semi-autonomous proxies across the region – staying at arm’s length from any violence while exercising its influence. “There is a long history of states using proxies in the region, going back decades,” Jason said. “But it’s quite hard to think of anything comparable to what Iran is doing today, in the region or around the world.”
As well as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, Iranian-backed militias have targeted US forces in Iraq and Syria since 7 October. None have yet been killed, but Washington has responded with airstrikes against the militants. Israel also killed a top Iranian general, Seyed Razi Mousavi, in Damascus – and has been blamed for a blast in Beirut that killed a senior Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri.
“All of that is a message to Tehran,” Jason said. But there is still a desire on both sides to stay away from a direct confrontation: Joe Biden has been careful to separate the strikes against the Houthis from their Iranian sponsors, saying only that the US has sent a private message to Tehran that “we’re confident we’re well-prepared”.
Iran itself has “been producing virulent and inflammatory rhetoric against ‘the great Satan’ – the US – and ‘the little Satan’ – Israel – for decades,” Jason said. “But they have also been careful to avoid direct conflict – there have been lots of opportunities, and Tehran has systematically turned away from that.”
“It remains a fact that all of the main actors are reluctant to see an escalation – for now, anyway,” Jason said. “But the longer this continues, the greater the risk there is of something going badly wrong.”
What else we’ve been reading
Joe Stone (above) was forced by his editors on Saturday magazine to spend a month trying “rejection therapy” – asking ridiculous favours to get used to the humiliation of being refused, basically. The results are excruciating, and very funny. Archie
Heather Stewart’s report on the efforts to tackle abusive practices in garment factories in Leicester is incredibly interesting. Nimo
Whatever the outcome of the genocide case against Israel at the international court of justice, Nesrine Malik argues, the airing of the evidence in the Hague has been a powerful rebuke to the idea that outrage at the suffering of Palestinians is a fringe position. “The overall effect is of an emphatic enfranchisement of the rights of people in Gaza,” she writes. Archie
Tom Lamont’s interview with Peter Capaldi is a great read. Capaldi discusses his latest role playing an ageing DCI and how his career has evolved since The Thick Of It. Nimo
Yvonne Roberts has a really good piece for the Observer about why an extraordinary 140,000 pupils are classed as “severely absent” from school in the UK – and what can be done to solve the problem. Archie
Sport
Snooker | Ronnie O’Sullivan (above) recovered from 6-3 down to beat Ali Carter 10-7 to claim a record-extending eighth Masters title and put him on course to complete snooker’s triple crown in one season. At 48, O’Sullivan is now the oldest Masters champion as well as the youngest.
Football | Mo Salah rescued a point for Egypt with a stoppage time penalty in a shock 2-2 draw with underdogs Mozambique. It was a day of surprises at the tournament, with Cape Verde beating Ghana 2-1 in the late game and Nigeria drawing 1-1 with Equatorial Guinea. In the Premier League, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United drew 2-2 while Aston Villa and Everton drew 0-0.
NFL | The Detroit Lions beat the Los Angeles Rams 24-23 to take the team’s first victory in the playoffs for 32 years. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys 48-32, the Cowboys’ first home loss since the 2022 opener and the most points the team has allowed in postseason history.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with an exclusive: “NHS drugs shortage poses threat to patients’ lives, say pharmacists”. The Financial Times has a story on the Japanese firm behind the Post Office scandal, with “Whitehall ‘Project Sushi’ sought to block Fujitsu from contracts in 2010s”. The Mirror looks at the same scandal with “We can’t let them off the hook”.
The i reports “UK grants asylum to Rwandans despite claims country is safe”, while the Times says “Top Tories urge Sunak to toughen Rwanda bill”. The Telegraph leads on a new election poll that shows “Tories facing 1997-style wipeout”.
The Mail leads on revelations in a new royal biography that allege “Queen’s fury over naming of baby Lilibet”. The Sun leads on Holly Willoughby’s return to UK screens with “Ice to see you Holly”.
Today in Focus
Reform UK: the party frightening the Tories from the fringes
The rightwing populist party and successor to Ukip has Conservative voters in its sights. Ben Quinn reports
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Grey and Nova are a husband-wife duo who create and perform experimental, avant garde music on their bespoke 70-tonne sailing ship. They made the decision to sell their home and borrow money after becoming frustrated by the environmental impact of touring live music. So, the pair decided to lead by example.
Over the last four years they have sailed about 50,000 nautical miles in the boat that doubles up as their home, touring vessel and music venue, performing their Javanese folk with psychedelic synths and percussion to spread the word about climate change, alongside a small crew.
The change has not only been good for the environment, it has also helped them be more creative, curious and resourceful. “We always manage to find a peace,” Grey says.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
