Good morning.
At about 6:30am local time on Saturday, Hamas, the Palestinian para-military group, launched an unprecedented, surprise attack by land, air and sea, firing thousands of rockets from Gaza and launching an incursion into southern Israel taking over several Israeli towns. The offensive, which Hamas have called “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”, took place a day after the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur war and caught the Israeli government and military completely off guard. It has been described as an “intelligence failure for the ages”.
Both the Israeli military and Hamas have confirmed that Israeli civilians and military personnel have been taken hostage. As of this morning, at least 700 Israelis have been killed and 100 are thought to have been taken captive. Israel’s retaliation has killed over 413 Palestinians, including 78 children in Gaza, and injured a further 2,000. That number is expected to continue to rise. Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has responded quickly and unsparingly to the attack, vowing to turn “all the places that Hamas hides in” into “rubble”. Save the Children has denounced the violence, adding that the magnitude of the attacks in Israel and Gaza will have consequences that will last long after the immediate crisis.
There has been widespread international condemnation of Hamas’s offensive: Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer both said Israel has an absolute right to defend itself; the US announced it was sending military support to Israel and many other western, African and Latin American countries disavowed Hamas’s actions. Russia, China, Turkey and several Arab states issued general appeals for restraint, while Iran solely blamed Israel for the violence.
Today’s newsletter is a rundown of what has happened so far and why.
Five big stories
Germany | Germany’s opposition conservatives have held ground in the key states of Hesse and Bavaria in elections that highlighted discontent with Olaf Scholz’s centre-left government amid worries about economic slowdown and migration.
Labour | Rachel Reeves will announce today that a Labour government would create a powerful Covid corruption commissioner to help recoup billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money that has been lost to waste, fraud and flawed contracts during the pandemic.
Health | Mental healthcare in England has become “a national emergency”, with “overwhelmed” services unable to cope with a big post-Covid surge in people needing help, NHS bosses say.
Conservatives | Working-class people who were a key part of the coalition of voters that delivered the Conservatives’ 2019 general election win have been deserting the party in droves under Rishi Sunak’s leadership, polling by YouGov has found. Only 44% of working-class voters who voted for the Tories in 2019 say they will back the party next time.
Spain | Tens of thousands of people have joined conservative and far-right Spanish political leaders in Barcelona to protest against the Socialist party’s decision to consider an amnesty for those involved in the failed, unlawful and unilateral push for Catalan independence six years ago.
In depth: ‘Our enemy will pay a price the type of which it has never known’
On the last day of the Jewish high holiday of Simchat Torah, sirens were heard as far as Tel Aviv, alerting people to a barrage of rockets that were heading from the Gaza Strip. Hamas said they had launched 5,000 rockets – the IDF’s figure stood at 2,200. At the same time, Palestinian gunmen had entered Israel. Within hours, militants had infiltrated three military bases and raided the border towns of Sderot, Be’eri, and Ofakim.
Israel have said more than 100 hostages, including women and children, have been taken into Gaza by Hamas, which hugely complicates any Israeli military operation to free them, Peter Beaumont reports. The hostages include festival-goers who were attending an all-night party celebrating the Jewish holiday near the Gaza-Israel border, where 260 bodies were later found. Airlines have suspended flights into Tel Aviv, all schools across Israel and Gaza are closed and businesses have pulled their shutters down. For now, life has come to a halt.
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How has Israel responded?
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyhu vowed to destroy Hamas and launched a large scale offensive, firing a wave of retaliatory airstrikes on Gaza, destroying dozens of buildings. In a televised statement he said: “Our enemy will pay a price the type of which it has never known. We are in a war and we will win it.”
He also told Gaza residents to “get out of there now” ahead of an Israeli military attack. However, they have no way to get out. Since 2007 Gaza has been under a full land, sea and air blockade, leading many to question where Gaza residents were expected to go as the borders into Israel and Egypt have been shut. Approximately 20,000 people have taken shelter in United Nations schools and hospitals.
Israeli warplanes continued “intense” strikes in the territory, and have targeted several buildings in the centre of Gaza City, including Palestine Tower, an 11-storey building that houses Hamas radio stations, a mosque in Khan Yunis, a school where 225 people were said to be sheltering from rocket fire and Watan Tower which services as a hub for internet providers. Most areas are without electricity as Israel has stopped supplying Gaza with power and fuel, as well as food and water. The unending shelling has made Gaza’s already dire humanitarian situation even worse, with under-equipped hospitals making appeals for blood donors.
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Why did this happen?
Hamas said the attack was in response to the scenes of Israeli settlers praying inside the compound of al-Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem and due to the treatment that Palestinians have faced over the decades. The area around the mosque is religiously significant to Jewish people and Muslims alike. Jews are not allowed to pray inside al-Aqsa compound, doing so, according to Guardian analysis, is highly provocative.
Experts and analysts however have said that the attack was not solely caused by these events – not least because this offensive would have taken months of preparation and planning. The incursion follows recent surges of conflict in Jerusalem and the Israeli-occupied West Bank: 2022 was one of the deadliest years for West Bank Palestinians with at least 146 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces. In February, there was a settler attack in Huwara so violent that the Israeli military called it a pogrom (a violent riot incited with the aim of massacring or expelling an ethnic or religious group).
There has also been a marked escalation in the number of attacks against Israelis as the political situation has deteriorated in recent years: in 2022, 29 Israelis and two foreign nationals, 27 of which were civilians, were killed in attacks by Palestinians or Israeli Arabs, the deadliest year for Israelis since 2015.
The election of Israel’s hard right government, and the de facto annexation of the West Bank which began earlier this year, demonstrated how unstable the situation had become. A poll that was conducted towards the end of last year found that support for the peace process had plummeted to an all time low: Palestinian support for armed struggle was increasing and more and more Israelis believed that they should go to war.
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The global context
In his analysis, Peter Beaumont pointed towards the US-brokered normalisation deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a significant factor. “The reality is that while Hamas has dressed up the attack as a response to Israeli incursions around the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, it chose to trigger this conflict – at this time and in the way it did – as a way to impose itself in that wider diplomacy,” Beaumont writes.
The attack has happened during a highly sensitive diplomatic moment that could see an alliance between the two countries – a situation that would be alarming for Iran and Hamas. Patrick Wintour’s analysis provides comprehensive insight into how this will change the picture of Middle Eastern diplomacy.
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What will happen next?
Hamas leaders have called on Palestinians to join the fight and “sweep away the [Israeli] occupation”, meanwhile the Israeli military has called for mass mobilisation of its army reserves. The IDF has said that it has secured 22 locations but is continuing to sweep through others.
And there are growing concerns that the outbreak of violence could spark a broader regional conflict that could draw in Lebanon’s military group, Hezbollah. A sizeable war will cause significant civilian casualties, on both sides, and is unlikely to stabilise a region that has long simmered with unresolved tensions.
What else we’ve been reading
For most people, LinkedIn is the platform of nightmares. But not everyone feels this way: Anya Kamenetz found some teenagers who find the site refreshing and a break from the irony and dark humour that plague other corners of the internet. Nimo
For those of us still grieving over the illegal felling of the Sycamore Gap tree, pictured above, this feature by Hannah Jane Parkinson offers some solace. Here she looks at some spectacular ancient specimens, including one whose survival is a deep-rooted puzzle. Nazia
Psychotherapist and writer of the Observer’s problem page, Philippa Perry parses through what she has learned over the years from being an agony aunt. Nimo
For the Olympic gold medal-winning athlete Kelly Holmes, one of the first warning signs that something had changed was struggling to sleep. Here she talks to Rachel Hall about menopause insomnia. Nazia.
Friday nights are sacrosanct in our house, time to close the door on a busy week, put the pizza in the oven and settle down to a good family movie. Here our writers share their personal customs and household habits from eggy breakfasts to opera, learning lines and planting seeds. Nazia.
Sport
Football | Arsenal produced a solid performance to secure a hard-fought 1-0 victory over champions Manchester City at the Emirates thanks to a deflected goal by substitute Gabriel Martinelli, pictured above. It was the first time Arsenal had defeated City in the league since 2015. Elsewhere, Liverpool were held to a 2-2 draw at Brighton, Newcastle drew 2-2 with West Ham, and Aston Villa drew 1-1 at Wolves.
Formula One | Max Verstappen won the Qatar Grand Prix for Red Bull with another commanding display but it was Lewis Hamilton crashing out of the race in the first lap after hitting his Mercedes teammate George Russell that delivered much of the drama.
Gymnastics | Simone Biles closed out an incredible comeback meet after a two‑year layoff by winning gold on the balance beam and floor exercise at the Artistic Gymnastics World Championships as Britain’s Jake Jarman became world champion for the first time by winning the men’s vault competition.
The front pages
The aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel dominates the front pages on Monday. The Guardian leads with “Violence escalates as death toll surges to over 1000”. Framing a picture of an Israeli soldier killed in the attacks, the Times headlines “Stunned Israel goes to war”. The Financial Times says “Israel at war after deadly Hamas attack”.
The Telegraph reports “US sends warships and jets to help Israel”, while the i says “Fears grow for 100 hostages”. The Mail runs images of some of the hostages with the headline “Pawns of merciless terrorists”.
Elsewhere, the Mirror has an interview with Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, under the headline “Put your trust in me”. Finally, the Sun reports on a feud between former Britain’s Got Talent judges with “Cowell: David’s a wally”.
Today in Focus
From Blair to Starmer: Labour’s path to power – part 1
In 1996, Labour was way ahead in the opinion polls with their sights set on an election campaign expected the following year. The party had been out of power for 17 years and faced a Conservative party beset by scandals, bereft of ideas and heading for oblivion. The party was led by Tony Blair, a former lawyer who had taken on the left of his party and won internal policy battles with a pitch for the centre ground. The parallels with the present day could barely be clearer.
In the first of two parts looking back at that period, political correspondent Kiran Stacey hears from those who were around Tony Blair at the time: Labour’s campaign strategist Peter Mandelson, the director of communications, Alastair Campbell, the policy chief, David Miliband, the MP Harriet Harman and the political adviser Liam Byrne.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
It’s been estimated that emissions from livestock (mostly cows) account for about 14% of global climate emissions, that’s a third of human-caused methane emissions. That’s part of the reason there’s been such a focus on cutting meat consumption, which has led Conservative politicians to rail against so-called “meat bans”.
But research from Sweden offers some hope for a solution. A report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency into feeds that can reduce methane emissions says development in the field has been “rapid in recent years” and there are “a number of new interesting additives with higher potential”. Among the additives cited in the report were the seaweed red algae, which according to manufacturers can reduce the methane emissions of animals by up to 90%. It’s still in the early stage of research, but could offer an alternative to trying to persuade millions to give up their burger habit.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
