Good morning. Despite Labour’s best efforts to hog the limelight over the weekend with the resignation of Rosie Duffield – the fastest that an MP has stood down after a general election victory in modern times – many eyes this week will be on the Conservative party conference, which began yesterday and runs until Wednesday. Three months after a historic electoral defeat, it is the first conference out of government for the party since 2009.
It is going to be a low-key affair in Birmingham, with Rishi Sunak having made his final conference address as leader on Sunday, and many former senior Tories not in attendance. The lack of a clear leader has also exacerbated the low interest, with business leaders and lobbyists also steering clear. A quiet, wound-licking atmosphere seems assured, as members, activists and politicians try to piece together the remnants of their party.
The central focus of the conference is going to be on the protracted leadership race, with Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick battling it out to try to win over MPs and members. There is little enthusiasm for the contest, however, with senior Tories already predicting that whoever takes on the mantle will not actually last very long. Meanwhile, barely a day into conference and Badenoch is already facing a backlash because of comments she made about maternity pay being “excessive”. Although she has since walked back the claim, it could set her back significantly.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke with deputy editor of Conservative Home, Henry Hill, about the mood of the conference and the future of the Conservative party. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Austria | The far right won the most votes in an Austrian election for the first time since the Nazi era on Sunday, as the pro-Kremlin, anti-Islam Freedom party (FPÖ) rode a tide of public anger over migration and the cost of living to beat the centre-right People’s party (ÖVP).
Health | At least 18,000 deaths in England were associated with flu over the past two winters, figures have revealed, as health experts urge those eligible to take up a free vaccination on the NHS.
Energy | Almost half of British adults will ration their energy use this winter, a survey has found, as energy bills will rise again by 10% this week.
Wales | The steel town of Port Talbot is braced for the shutdown of the final furnace at its plant on Monday which will result in heavy job losses and deal a devastating blow to communities in south Wales.
Music | Kris Kristofferson, the US country singer who ably balanced a prolific acting career alongside his music, has died aged 88.
In depth: Four differing agendas, one common goal
By the time his replacement is chosen, Rishi Sunak will have been leader of the opposition for longer than any defeated prime minister since James Callaghan lost in 1979. During his final conference address as Tory leader, he defended the party’s record in office. “We did not get everything right”, the former prime minister said, “but we should not forget what we have achieved these last 14 years. We must not, and I know we will not, let Keir Starmer rewrite history”.
His words come three months after that devastating election defeat for his party, and the four contenders for Tory leader will be pitching themselves as the person who can most effectively repair the damage. However, the drawn-out race, which started officially in July, has thus far been painful for almost everyone involved – so much so that Jenrick and Tugendhat have called for the contest to be shortened by a week. There is frustration that the lengthy race has mean that the leaderless party has been unable to capitalise on Labour’s shaky start to government.
Although each will be trying to differentiate themselves – One Nation Tory Tugendhat, hard-line right-winger Jenrick, culture war stirrer Badenoch, and unifier Cleverly – the lines remain blurred because no candidate has made clear their positions on the most substantive policy issues.
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The tone so far
Following the 2022 leadership race between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, which at points became aggressive and acrimonious, it is understandable why there are guardrails this time around on what contenders can and can’t say. Introducing a yellow card penalty system, which is supposed to stop contenders from mud-slinging and personally attacking rivals, has regulated the tone of the race so far. It has also, however, made it somewhat difficult for candidates to assess the record of the previous government and what roles the other candidates might have played in it.
“We have an adversarial political system and that’s not a bad thing,” Hill says. “We can police that and make sure it’s done in a sportsmanlike manner, but candidates holding other candidates to account is an important part of how most democratic systems work.” Because there has been so little back and forth, up until this point the race has seemed like “dead time”, Hill adds.
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The battle
For the four hopefuls, the conference is going to begin with a “fireside chat” and members’ questions for an hour with each candidate today and tomorrow. On the last day, each contender will have 20 minutes to make their case in a speech that they hope will tip the scales in their favour.
The quality and fallout of the speeches will solidify the frontrunners, but it will be another week before the candidates are whittled down to two. Then it will be a head-to-head to win over the Tory members, who will vote on 31 October with the winner announced two days later.
Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty separated the four contenders into two camps: “Those for whom libertarian economics comes first, and those who speak golf-club identity politics.” Though the divide between these two camps is porous, Badenoch and Jenrick are comfortably in the latter category, while Cleverly and Tugendhat occupy the former.
Badenoch was the bookies’ favourite for a while, but Jenrick pulled ahead in the first two rounds of MP voting. Once a middle-of-the-road centrist, Jenrick is now the only candidate calling for Britain to pull out of the European convention on human rights and has said that “woke culture” and immigration has put English national identity at risk.
Badenoch’s blunt manner and her position on culture war issues has gained her significant favourability in some corners of the party, but has gained her some enemies, too. A full 24 hours of conference has not passed yet, and Badenoch is already in hot water after controversial comments on maternity pay, which she described as “excessive”, adding that people should exercise “more personal responsibility”. She has since walked back her comments, insisting that she was misrepresented. The comment followed a morning of uncompromising and provocative messages on the Middle East and immigration.
“I think it’s possible to over-interpret what [the member support for Badenoch] means in ideological terms because Penny Mordaunt was, until [this year’s] election, among the members’ favourites,” Hill says. “On the grassroots side, there’s a real frustration because the last government wasn’t really doing anything to please anyone, so there is a sense that what the members want is somebody who will at least stand up for conservatism as they understand it. That’s to Badenoch’s advantage because she is out there and having those fights.”
Cleverly is going ahead with what Hill has described as the “most vibes-based campaign”, trying to win people over by being a “nice person”. He performs well as a communicator and has been regarded as the unity candidate due to his ability to bridge the gap between the Tory right and the One Nation camp, but unity alone is unlikely to win him the leadership. Over the course of the next few days, he will have to set out a real political vision, which he has so far lacked.
Tugendhat’s more centrist credentials have appealed to some, but his campaign has fallen flat in many ways and he has struggled to widen his net. His attempt to broaden his appeal has put off some in his One Nation camp, but he also recognises that without more support he will not defeat the frontrunners. Cleverly and Tugendhat’s challenge during this conference will be demonstrating that they have the numbers and momentum to get to the final round.
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What else is on the agenda?
Without a leader there is no real policy agenda. Instead, the rest of the conference will be likely occupied with gauging the mood of the party and the membership, and understanding what their positions are now. “It will be interesting to see whether or not there are issues where the members’ understanding is actually running ahead of that of the parliamentary party,” Hill says.
Although it will be unlikely, the main thing that Hill will be looking out for during this conference as an analyst is a “clear diagnosis of what went wrong”. “You don’t even need to know how to fix it at this point, but you at least need to know why it all happened. Most of the candidates haven’t really confronted that issue in clear terms yet.”
The Middle East crisis
Over the weekend, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli bombardment in Beirut’s suburbs. Jason Burke has written a comprehensive profile on Nasrallah and an explainer on who could succeed him. The impact of the assassination will likely take months to reveal itself. After a month of intensifying conflict, the airstrikes marked “the most alarming escalation in almost a year of war between the Shia militant organisation and Israel”, Peter Beaumont wrote in his analysis.
As the war firmly reaches Lebanon, William Christou’s dispatch from Beirut takes a look at the impact on civilians who have been forced to flee their homes, while Patrick Wintour unpacks the far-reaching consequences of the weekend’s events for both the US and Iran. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, Israel has expanded its assault, launching a wave of airstrikes at Houthi targets in Yemen, and carrying out an apparent strike in central Beirut in the early hours of Monday morning, the first time it has struck Beirut outside the southern suburbs since 2006.
For the latest reporting on the regional conflict, keep a close eye on the Guardian homepage and live blog.
What else we’ve been reading
Sport
Football | Writes Jamie Jackson of United’s humiliating 3-0 defeat to Spurs: “This is the nadir of Erik ten Hag’s United tenure. A slipshod shambolic mess that Tottenham exploited gleefully, pinging the ball about and punching through their storied hosts as if in a men-v-kids knockabout”. Ten Hag denied any concern that he may be sacked after the loss.
Cricket | Australia claimed a 3-2 ODI series win against England in Bristol.
Cycling | Tadej Pogacar won the world road race championship in Zurich thanks to an audacious attack 100km from the finish, securing the coveted “triple crown” of the Giro d’Italia, Tour de France and world road titles in the same season.
The front pages
Middle East coverage dominates today’s front pages as the Guardian leads with “Violence escalates as Israel targets Yemen in airstrikes”. The Times says “Israeli tanks at border as Lebanon braces for battle”. The Financial Times has “Israel steps up attacks on Iran proxies” and i reports “Israel targets Iranian weapons network in Yemen after ‘wiping out’ Hezbollah leaders”.
The Telegraph leads with “Badenoch sparks Tory splits over maternity pay costs”. The Mail splashes with “Boris: Macron wanted ‘punishment beating’ for Britain over Brexit”.
Today in Focus
The mysteries of IBS
Irritable bowel syndrome affects one in five adults in the UK but is little understood and has no known cure. Hannah Moore discusses living with the condition with a friend and asks a dietitian whether new research into the mind-gut connection may bring answers.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The Guardian’s Country Diary has been running for over 100 years, providing a record of the rural life across the United Kingdom, and how it has changed across the centuries. “Quietly, since it began in 1904, the Country Diary goes about its business as a useful historical record of the changes that have taken place in the countryside,” says its editor Paul Fleckney, in this piece celebrating the column, pegged to a newly published collection of highlights called Under the Changing Skies.
“Looking into the archives, you see casual references to species that are now rare such as corncrakes or red squirrels,” explains Fleckney. “It also tells a story about how people live in the countryside, how they relate to wildlife and, today, the huge changes wrought by global heating on our seasons and nature”. The diary “isn’t a wildlife tracking device per se”, he adds, “although that is part of its broad remit. It also exists to transport you to a different landscape. It comes in the paper after more than 20 pages of hard news so it’s partly a postcard from a particular place, a little bit of escapism.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
