The EU has gone through seven waves of enlargement since 1973, but there has not been one since Croatia joined in 2013. Indeed, there are not likely to be any new members in the club before 2028 – some 15 years after Croatia entered. But 2026 undeniably has momentum, and is on track to be a record year in terms of opening and closing new chapters for existing applicants. That is why our guest, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, sees this as "the year of the enlargement."
"Montenegro, which is really the frontrunner, could finish technical negotiations at the end of the year, and then become a member in 2028," Kos says. "Albania is well on the way. Moldova is delivering better and better and, of course, also Ukraine. So these are the four frontrunners. But when we say that this is the year of the enlargement, I mean that in the nine months of this year, we have opened and closed more chapters than in any previous year in the last 25 years."
But there's a distinction between the frontrunner and the best student. Kos says that Moldova "is the best performer in my class," taking into account that it started the process much later than applicant countries in the Balkans.
Speaking of the Balkans, Kos admits that there is uneven implementation of reforms, which could lead to €330 million in EU funding shifting away from the weakest performers.
"We will see how much money we will reallocate," Kos says. "Montenegro, for instance, has a 91 percent implementation rate of reforms to date. But then we also have Bosnia and Herzegovina with a zero (rate), because their politicians are not able to ratify two important agreements which would enable us to pay the money," Kos explains. "You know, our European Union is not a charity. So in order to be able to help their economies and societies to develop, they have to deliver the reforms, and we only give the money if they are doing this."
We turn to Serbia, which has been an EU candidate since 2012, but which has had a turbulent relationship with Brussels. According to Kos, "the trust between EU member states and Serbia was broken even more with the glorification of the war criminal Ratko Mladic at his funeral, which is really unacceptable. And that's also why I cancelled my planned mission to Serbia. We can have different opinions on how fast a country should make reforms. But there is no space for the glorification of a war criminal, or for denying the genocide in Srebrenica. We expect all the EU candidates, especially those from the Western Balkans, to walk the way of reconciliation. But sometimes I have the feeling that, instead of healing the wounds of the past, leaders are rubbing salt into those wounds."
Of course, enlargement is not only about the EU's closest neighbours. While Georgia's EU bid has stalled, Armenia is increasingly eyeing EU membership as an attractive option – even though it has not formally applied.
"We are helping Armenia, especially now when Russia stopped importing many Armenian products. So we are helping Armenia to redirect its exports to the European Union. We are also in the process of visa liberalisation. This means that Armenians would be able to travel to the EU without a visa. So now they have to align a lot of legislation, and they are doing great work. I'm full of admiration for the people of Armenia. It is not easy but, with the result of the last parliamentary elections, they have clearly shown that they want to be on the European path."
