Over the past two years, Moldova, a candidate for European Union membership, has faced significant challenges due to threats from Russia across various aspects of public life. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova has encountered a series of crises, including errant missiles landing on its territory, a severe energy crisis following reduced gas supplies from Moscow, high inflation rates, and protests by pro-Russia factions against the pro-Western government. Additionally, Moldova has accommodated the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita compared to any other country.
Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but Russia continues to view the country as within its sphere of influence, situated between Ukraine and EU member Romania. Moldovan officials have accused Russia of waging a 'hybrid war' against the country, involving funding anti-government protests, interfering in local elections, and conducting extensive disinformation campaigns to undermine the government and its path towards EU membership. Russia has denied these allegations.
Recently, Moldova's national Intelligence and Security Services agency reported unprecedented plans by Moscow to launch a destabilization campaign as Moldova prepares for a referendum on EU membership and a presidential election later this year. The government is wary of Russian efforts to influence the democratic process through voter bribery and manipulation.
Tensions have also escalated in Transnistria, a Russia-backed breakaway region of Moldova, with incidents such as explosions, political assassinations, and concerns about potential annexation by Russia. Moldova's foreign minister expressed concerns about the situation in Transnistria impacting investment due to its proximity to the conflict zone.
Despite these challenges, Moldova has made strides in enhancing its energy security, defense capabilities, and institutional resilience. The country, with a population of approximately 2.5 million, has shown resilience in the face of adversity and is moving towards greater independence and stability.
Moldova, which applied for EU membership following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, was granted candidate status in June 2022. The country aims to join the EU by 2030 and has bolstered defense spending, identified Russia as a primary threat, and received support from Western partners. Moldova's upcoming referendum on EU membership will gauge public sentiment towards a European future, despite Russian propaganda attempts to sway opinions.
