It may yet turn out that Bournemouth’s 1-0 victory over Tottenham was the worst possible result for Chelsea ahead of Sunday’s derby trip to north London.
Ange Postecoglou’s side have become masters of inconsistency, twice beating Manchester City and thrashing Aston Villa 4-1 in a run of eight games that otherwise includes no wins.
Sod’s law, then, the more pessimistic Blues supporter might posit, that they’ll turn up against our lot on Sunday.
Chelsea, prone to similar fluctuations last term, have by contrast become surprisingly predictable, and in the best possible way. Their only two league defeats this season have come against the champions and, perhaps, the champions-elect.
Draws with Arsenal, away to Manchester United and maybe even, given their form at the time, Nottingham Forest were roughly par results. Crystal Palace at home less so, but, hey, you’re allowed one.
Otherwise, the Blues have been business-like in winning the winnable games, each success probably expected in isolation, but increasingly impressive as the sequence has gone on.
No player has embodied that reliability as much as Moises Caicedo, who has started all 14 Premier League matches under Enzo Maresca and played more minutes than any other player.
In his pre-match press conference on Friday, Maresca suggested the Ecuadorian is now back to the form he showed at his Brighton best, when he was rightly spoken of among the top holding midfielders in the country, with the likes of Rodri and Declan Rice.
“He is for sure now at that level, no doubt,” Maresca said. “I think Moises can sit at that table with that kind of midfielder.”
For Maresca, who is often cautious in caveating the hype around individuals to keep his young squad in check, it was lofty praise. But it may even have stopped short of the truth.
With Rodri out for the campaign with a torn ACL and Rice only just returning to his peak level after a slow start, there is a case for Caicedo having been the division’s outstanding midfielder so far this term.
Ryan Gravenberch, a newcomer to the category, has been excellent for Liverpool, true, but the numbers in Caicedo’s favour are persuasive.
The 23-year-old has made 45 tackles, the fourth-most in the division, and a further 21 interceptions, ranking third on the two figures combined. Those above him in both criteria have the questionable “advantage” of playing for teams who average significantly less than 50 per cent possession. Chelsea’s is at 56 per cent.
Maresca tends to line up with at least five players more advanced than Caicedo (four forwards plus either Enzo Fernandez in an attacking midfield role, or one of the full-backs inverting as a No10).
Caicedo, as a consequence, is actually taking fewer touches and playing fewer passes than last season, but bearing greater responsibility as the defensive screen at the base of midfield. Against Aston Villa last weekend, he managed to fill that role while also nominally doubling as right-back, an option Maresca says we will see more of as the season goes on.
There is a case for Caicedo having been the Premier League’s most outstanding midfielder this season
Comparisons are being made at Stamford Bridge to N’Golo Kante, not just for the diminutive pair’s stylistic similarities, but also the overall impact on Chelsea’s security as a team. Maresca’s side are conceding goals at a rate of 1.07 per game in the league, compared to 1.70 under Mauricio Pochettino last season. For expected goals, the figures are 1.35 versus 1.55, and they are, crucially, allowing 3.5 fewer shots per game.
In short, both Chelsea and Caicedo are benefiting hugely from their £115million midfielder being asked to do more of what he was bought to do and less of what he was not.
“I don’t score too many, but the most important thing for me is to help the team in defence,” he told the club’s website this week. “If the other team does not score a goal, I go home happy.”
Shut out Spurs on their own patch on Sunday and the travelling support, at least, will do the same.
