An eight-minute meeting at a suburban business park in Melbourne’s west last month has become the latest flashpoint in the Victorian Liberal party’s internal battle.
The Laverton branch gathered for what was meant to be a routine vote to elect delegates who will help decide whether the upper house MP Moira Deeming can run again for the party at November’s state election.
Deeming’s supporters claim they were given an incorrectly formatted address for the 5pm meeting, sending them to the wrong location.
When they walked into the venue at 5.01pm, they say the presiding officer told them he was “locking the doors” and they would not be allowed to take part.
By 5.09pm, the meeting was over, according to a written complaint sent to the Liberals’ state director, Alyson Hannam, seen by Guardian Australia.
“It was a fix,” claims one party member who was locked out. The member alleges those inside “had already predetermined the outcome”.
But three senior Liberal sources, unable to comment publicly on internal matters, tell a very different story.
They say the Deeming supporters were simply late. One source says even if those outside had voted, it would not have changed the fact Deeming doesn’t have the numbers to win the preselection ballot.
“She’s toast,” the source says.
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An internal tally leaked to Guardian Australia and circulated among MPs this week shows Deeming’s main challenger, Dinesh Gourisetty, well ahead of her. Only 15 votes remain undecided, including 14 from a random pool of members drawn from across metropolitan Melbourne – a group that has been the target of intensive lobbying in recent weeks.
Deeming’s detractors circulated a photograph from a 2024 Equal Access for Autism fundraiser showing her alongside Mick Gatto, an alleged Melbourne underworld figure. It has taken on heightened relevance given the Coalition used question time last week to attack the government over Gatto’s alleged “malignant influence” on Big Build sites.
Meanwhile, high-profile conservatives – including the media commentator Peta Credlin – have been hitting the phones in support of Deeming.
Credlin has also written a reference letter describing Deeming as a “rare individual who can unite social conservatives, disaffected Labor types, every day working-class people who believe in family values but feel abandoned, and the migrant communities of her region”.
She says she has “never met a more tenacious, more resilient and more fearless person than Moira”, referring to her “period of persecution” when Deeming was expelled from the Liberal party room after threatening legal action against the then leader John Pesutto. Deeming ultimately won her legal fight, leading to Pesutto losing the leadership.
“The best politicians come through fire, are tested and made stronger for it,” Credlin wrote.
Credlin also wrote a column last week alleging that Deeming’s “opponents are allegedly trying to rig the preselection numbers against her”.
Branch meeting concerns aired
Deeming wrote to Hannam to raise concerns about several branch meetings last month. She claimed that, similar to Laverton, doors were closed at exactly 6pm at a Kororoit branch meeting, while ID checks were not performed at Point Cook, Tarneit or Werribee. Ineligible members were also listed as eligible and allowed to vote across several branches, she alleged, while asking for the meetings to be declared invalid and re-run.
Hannam replied, writing that she took these matters seriously, acted within the constitution and on the basis of evidence provided to her from “various parties” to the branch meetings.
“With all information I have reviewed, there is no cause for meetings in the Western Metro Region to be re-held,” she said.
On Thursday Deeming looped in the entire state executive, along with her solicitor, Patrick George, to the correspondence – a step that could signal potential legal action.
“We are now moving into the fourth year since the campaign to defame and expel me from this party began,” she said. “Clearly that campaign continues to this day, despite my repeated attempts to resolve it internally,.”
Deeming declined to comment when contacted by Guardian Australia due to party rules that prohibit candidates from speaking publicly on preselections.
Hannam said: “This is an internal party matter, all matters are carefully considered.”
The One Nation factor
According to the internal party tally, the final undecided vote belongs to the opposition leader, Jess Wilson. But it is understood Wilson – or her proxy – plans to vote for every sitting MP in the preselection ballots.
Wilson has also written Deeming a reference letter – as she has for every other sitting MP who requested it – in which she describes Deeming as an “articulate and effective advocate for our party’s values in a part of Melbourne where people are increasingly interested in voting for change”.
“The Liberal party needs candidates like Moira in Melbourne’s west, which will be such an important battleground for the 2026 state election,” Wilson wrote. “We must win seats from Labor in the west to secure government.”
The Coalition is now 16 seats behind Labor.
Polling suggests One Nation could be its biggest barrier to forming government. A Redbridge/Accent Research poll released on Wednesday suggests the Coalition vote has dropped to 28% from 40%, while One Nation has increased to 24%.
Wilson told reporters there would be “no alliance” with the party – but did not rule out a preference deal, saying it was a matter for the executive.
But her biggest risk in Melbourne’s west could be the defection of Deeming to One Nation if she loses preselection.
Deeming’s supporters insist she is not contemplating this but Liberal MPs are factoring it in. One senior Liberal source claims her concerns around the branch votes are “laying the groundwork” for a potential defection.
But a Deeming supporter estimates that if she loses preselection, roughly a quarter of active members – those who do the bulk of door-knocking, distributing how-to-votes and donations in the area – could quit.
“They will all go to One Nation,” they say. “It would be the final nail in the coffin of the party’s election chances.”
