All season long at Sports Illustrated, I have been picking on Patrick Corbin because whenever he is pitching, games tend to hit the over for their run total. It’s a bet I am locking and loading again today, and I am also applying it to my DFS lineup. Oddsmakers have the run total for tonight’s Nationals-Giants game listed at 8.5, but I am expecting plenty more.
To begin with, let’s focus on Corbin himself. Corbin has been shaky to start the season. His ERA is 5.17 with an xERA of 5.82, and his expected SLG is in the bottom 14% of the league. That doesn’t seem to match up well with a Giants team that has scored 58.4% of its runs this season via the home run -- the highest percentage in the league.
The Nationals bullpen has an ERA of 4.33.