Max Verstappen’s concession that Red Bull has turned its dominant Formula 1 car into a “monster” shows how extreme the squad feels its problems are.
A lacklustre performance at the Italian Grand Prix, as Verstappen found himself powerless to finish any higher than sixth, has left it in no doubt that both the constructors’ and drivers’ championships are under threat.
The main issue with its RB20 F1 challenger is a handling imbalance which means that both Verstappen and Sergio Perez are struggling to get the car hooked up.
As team boss Christian Horner explained: “There's a balance issue with the car that isn't allowing the drivers to commit to corner entry.
“As soon as you calm down the rear, you do that by compromising the front. Then you end up with understeer, and then you kill your tyre that way.”
While it knows what is going on, what Red Bull does not yet understand is what is causing it – nor how to fix it.
But as part of the root-and-branch review of everything that is now being conducted at its Milton Keynes factory this week, some key factors have already emerged as elements that may have played a role in what has happened.
Did it try to be too clever?
When Red Bull revealed its RB20 at its Milton Keynes factory at the start of the year, it surprised many with how big a step it had taken from 2023.
Rather than sit on its laurels after its dominant charge to last year’s title double with an evolutionary design, it went extreme with a hefty revamp of its aero and cooling to deliver an extra step in performance.
But looking back at how things have developed this season, and seeing how McLaren has hunted it down by simply optimising a car that hasn't changed much since Miami, one element could be that its overly-complex efforts to get one over the opposition have backfired.
Horner said: “What we really need to do is get the [aero] map working. If you look at the McLaren, it almost looks like an evolution of last year's car, a much simpler car than ours.
“Perhaps we've gone a little too complex and perhaps we need to simplify a few things.”
It could also be that as the F1 pace-setter, Red Bull has hit a development limit with the current generation of cars – so major improvements are not possible.
“We've hit the ceiling in certain areas and the car's disconnected,” he added. “Sometimes maybe, to have slightly less load but an overall better balance, will generate better lap time, better degradation, and better tyre management.”
Has Newey’s departure hurt?
Red Bull’s decline in form since the Miami Grand Prix has coincided with the timing of news emerging that design genius Adrian Newey is leaving the squad.
That announcement came on the eve of the Miami Grand Prix, the first race this season where Red Bull was beaten by McLaren.
Although Newey has remained with the team at races and does not officially depart until the first quarter of next year, he has obviously been removed from involvement in technical matters.
And while not the sole architect of Red Bull’s title-winning machinery in recent years, what Newey has often provided was valuable input in concept ideas, or steadying the ship when things have got unsettled.
Horner does not think Newey’s exit is a factor though, because he reckons the problems had already come to light while he was still heavily involved trackside.
“We would have had all of these issues [still], because the issues were already there,” he said. “And one man's input could never be so dramatic so quickly.
“This started and really highlighted itself in Miami, and Adrian was plugged in up until the Friday of Miami. So, there's no way it would have impacted so quickly.”
Asked if Newey may have been able to see a way out of the problems, Horner said: “But he’d be working with all the same people. F1 is a team sport, it's a team issue, and the team will come up with the resolution.”
It's nothing new
Red Bull may need to look further than its most recent upgrades to get an understanding of exactly where things have gone wrong.
One interesting observation from Horner is that the imbalance characteristic may have been present for a while, but it was shielded by the fact that its previous two cars were so dominant.
A suggestion is that as Red Bull has had to lift its game in the wake of the increased challenge from McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari, it means the issue has become more exposed – reaching a peak right now.
“It's been there for some time,” said Horner. “Actually going through the data, there was issues there at the beginning of the year, with the characteristics.
“Others have obviously made a step. And, as we've pushed the package harder, it has exposed the issue.
“If you go back in the data, there was a few races last year where we started to see this – in Austin and so on. So, I think it's a characteristic that we know we have to address. And it's full focus in the factory of Milton Keynes to do that.”
Watch: Why Monza was Ferrari's Win, Not McLaren's Loss - F1 Italian GP Analysis
A wind tunnel correlation problem
One of the big headaches many teams face is the fact that correlation between wind tunnel data and the real-life F1 car is quite difficult.
The speeds that teams are allowed to run in the tunnel, and the size of their models, do not match up with the forces experienced out on track – and any mismatch in data can be hard to unpick.
Red Bull says that it too has faced issues on this front, with the balance issue that gets exposed on the real RB20 not coming to light in its simulations.
“Recent upgrades were aimed at putting load on the car,” he said. “It's disconnected front and rear. And we can see that.
“Our wind tunnel doesn't say that, but the track says that. So it's about getting on top of that, because obviously when you have that, it means you can't trust your tools. So then you have to go back to track data and previous experience.”
While title rival McLaren is making good use of its latest state-of-the-art wind tunnel, Red Bull is still reliant on its old Bedford facility – which although modified over the years is probably not the best in the business.
A new facility is being built at its Milton Keynes factory, which will be an improvement, but Horner does not see that an excuse for Red Bull’s plight.
“The wind tunnel has its limitations, which is why we've invested in a new tunnel,” he said.
“But it's what we've got, and we have to make use of it. I think the wind tunnel is perhaps a contributor, but it's not the reason behind where we are.”
