Scott Morrison might be hoping he can take his turn at being Lazarus and rise from the opinion polls to secure another term as prime minister. But looking at this election — the only poll that counts — even a triple bypass is unlikely to deliver victory.
That’s because of a confluence brought on by the government’s poor performance, pockets of power being wielded by minor parties, and the substantial challenges being faced by voters in this election.
Certainly in Queensland — which delivered victory to the Coalition last time — its support has peaked and it would be quite incredible for Morrison to match the vote he received three years ago.
Nationally, on a two-party preferred vote, Labor boasts a 10 percentage point advantage. On most days that would be unassailable, but it appears voters have also stopped listening even before the campaign gets under way, and Morrison — despite his background in marketing — cannot find a circuit-breaker.
The floods that have broken the hearts of thousands of Queensland and New South Wales voters should have provided an impetus to show leadership. The government could have showcased how quickly it could respond to a disaster, the empathy behind its decisions, and its determination to rebuild as a community.
Instead, what does Peter Dutton, the defence minister, do? He sets up a GoFundMe page, with funds directed to those affected in his electorate of Dickson!
That’s the best definition of a tin ear you might get and perhaps the reason why it took so long — and three formal requests by NSW — for the army to join the massive clean-up which stretched well beyond Dutton’s seat.
It’s not just decisions like that. Take the logo for the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet’s new women’s network, which is aimed at promoting gender equality. Look at it and tell me it doesn’t look like a penis stuck to the letter W!
These types of decisions simply highlight an ongoing lack of appreciation for how voters think and feel in 2022. On the back of COVID, the mental health toll is also real and serious. But has there been any focused consideration politically of that? No. And we will see the impact of that in the long tail left by this pandemic.
The cost of living, as evidenced through petrol prices, is another stellar example. It should not cost more than $100 to fill a car needed to take children to school and to attend work. And when it does, common sense would dictate that a government would act to cut excise or to support those who need it.
I get the feeling a chunk of voters will find the funds to drive to a polling booth in May.
The lack of leadership and the cost of living battle being felt in electorates across the nation is being fed by the minor parties, particularly in Queensland where Morrison has every seat, except one, north of the Brisbane River.
Billboard advertising works or people wouldn’t use it and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is plastering suburbs and highways with the same message. He’s appealing to traditional conservative voters, niggling away at Morrison’s message: our freedoms have been curtailed; we are being told what to do at every turn; our jobs are the victims of a lockdown that served no purpose.
It’s like a Chihuahua snapping at the heels of the government, but Palmer’s advertising assault is not the only disruptive influence. Campbell Newman, sent packing by Queensland voters, is hoping to find a seat in Canberra and is making noises too. The Hanson factor, while small, adds to that. And the rise of the Greens in inner-city suburbs, including Brisbane, adds a disruptive influence to both parties.
The selection of some candidates, given the challenge we face, is also a lesson in mediocrity. How voters see their future is at the heart of any election but this time the loss of control they feel — whether it’s through COVID or natural disasters — is mammoth.
Any chance they get to have a say, and make change, they will. That makes Morrison and his government a mighty target.
What would it take to change your vote? A massive disaster or a minor fumble? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
