Midterms 2026 Turn Real: Early Ballots Flow as Forecasters Give Dems 83% House Odds

People vote at a polling location during early voting in the midterm election, in Atlanta, Georgia, on October 13, 2026. Americans voting in the November 3 midterm elections will decide who controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency, along with dozens of governorships and thousands of state offices. (Credit: Photo by Erik S. Lesser / AFP via Getty Images)

The Briefing

• In-person early voting is already underway in Iowa (Oct. 14) and Georgia (Oct. 13), with South Carolina, Texas, and Michigan set to follow by Oct. 24 — three weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3.
• Leading forecast models give Democrats an 83% chance of flipping the House and a 61% shot at the Senate; prediction markets place the odds of a full Democratic sweep at 62%.
• Trump's favorability stands at 37%, down 7 points since January 2025, as Democrats lead the congressional generic ballot by 8.3 points — tracking closely to the pre-election margins that preceded their 41-seat House gain in 2018.