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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Phillip Inman

Middle East conflict will damage UK’s economy ‘more than any other’

Commuters walk across in bridge with London's financial district in the background
The OECD noted a weakening UK jobs market and a contraction in business investment towards the end of 2025, as well as the shock from rising oil and gas prices as a result of the Iran war. Photograph: Jason Alden/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The conflict in the Middle East will damage the UK’s economy more than any other industrialised nation, according to analysis by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned over rising inflation.

In the first major assessment by a leading international thinktank of the economic impact from the attack on Iran, the OECD said the UK economy would grow by just 0.7% this year, compared with its last forecast, made in December, of 1.2% for 2026.

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