For the eighth election cycle in a row, Michigan has the highest % of contested state legislative elections at 99%. The lowest rate in the state since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010 was 98% in 2010 and 2012. The highest rate was 100% in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
Michigan’s high contested election rate is unsurprising given the state’s swing state status. According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “Michigan will be one of the key battleground states … The Michigan Senate is not up in 2024, but the Michigan House is, and it will be hotly contested. In 2022, the Democrats flipped both chambers, and they maintain only a narrow majority in the House. Republicans wouldn’t need to gain many seats to flip the chamber, and the national GOP is focusing attention on it. A court-ordered remap of the House districts for 2024 made the Democrats’ majority slightly more vulnerable.”
