Of all the articles written around the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the most worrying I’ve seen contained nothing about frontlines, tactics, weapons or death.
Instead, it told the story of how Russia has been transformed by the war, how it has been moved further to the nationalistic right, with dissent silenced and “traditional values” reinforced.
The outcome is a picture of a totalitarian society prepared for years of war, whatever the cost of Russian lives, never mind Ukrainian.
Forget stories about poorly trained Russian troops with inadequate weapons not performing as well as expected on the battlefield.
There are millions more of them to be conscripted and Vladimir Putin feels no pain.
The New York Times report, “One Year Into War, Putin is Crafting the Russia He Craves“, is particularly worrying if you read it, as I did, after several days again immersed in Berlin’s past.
With state propaganda in full swing, dissidents either silenced or self-exiled, opponents either falling out of windows or down stairs, the provision of an enemy allegedly threatening Russia’s existence has swung more support behind the dictatorship.
“The grievances, paranoia and imperialist mind-set that drove President Vladimir V. Putin to invade Ukraine have seeped deep into Russian life after a year of war — a broad, if uneven, societal upheaval that has left the Russian leader more dominant than ever at home,” report Anton Troianovski and Valerie Hopkins.
“Schoolchildren collect empty cans to make candles for soldiers in the trenches, while learning in a new weekly class that the Russian military has always liberated humanity from ‘aggressors who seek world domination’.
Gays become targets
“Museums and theatres, which remained islands of artistic freedom during previous crackdowns, have seen that special status evaporate, their antiwar performers and artists expunged. New exhibits put on by the state have titles like ‘NATOzism’ — a play on ‘Nazism’ that seeks to cast the Western military alliance as posing a threat as existential as the Nazis of World War II.”
Russia’s military has suffered setbacks in Ukraine, but with little resistance at home, “Mr Putin’s year of war has allowed him to go further than many thought possible in reshaping Russia in his image”.
An early symbol of the “traditional values” being imposed is a crackdown on LGBTQI people.
New legislation bans “propaganda” about “nontraditional sexual relations”.
Ninety years later, it uncomfortably echoes some of Hitler’s earliest oppression. Homosexual men were Nazi targets for the concentration camps, too.
A year of war also has unified and solidified Ukrainian resistance to Russia.
The Blitz didn’t break British spirit, bombing Germany didn’t break German spirit, Russia’s missiles haven’t weakened Ukraine’s.
“During the course of the war, the (Ukrainian) state and civic pride have become stronger still,” the Economist, for example, reports.
The result is two countries set for a long war of attrition; Russia with its history of life being cheap — “the Russian soul is a thousand-year-old slave” wrote Soviet novelist and war correspondent Vassily Grossman; Ukraine fighting for its survival — as long as it is backed by the West with money and weapons.
The quote “the West will fight Russia to the last drop of Ukrainian blood” has several fathers. It seems journalist Neil Hauer was the first. It might not be quite accurate.
Years of fighting turning into another trillion-dollar war without victory may be beyond the appetite of Western treasuries before Ukraine runs out of bodies.
The history of American proxy wars is cruellest to the countries they are fought in, as Columbia University’s Jeffrey Sachs has explained.
So one year on, the future looks extremely bleak for invaded Ukraine, even while it holds Russia at bay.
With the war only one year old, Ukraine and Russia galvanised Western governments enthusiastic in their support of Ukraine and condemnation of Russia.
There’s hope in the grey area
The only hope for the hundreds of thousands of human beings about to die is diplomatic compromise, which is unlikely.
Like the challenge of undoing any Gordian knot, “you wouldn’t want to start from here” applies.
In the present climate, suggesting this war is anything less than black and white smacks of treason.
Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine and that cannot be countenanced.
Yes, in World War 1 Germany invaded Belgium which could not be countenanced.
But in both cases there were areas of grey in the lead up where all sides made mistakes that contributed to the subsequent catastrophes.
There is no chance of ending the slaughter in Ukraine without admitting areas of grey that, in turn, could lead to compromise, as unpalatable as that is for both sides now.
It’s easier for Western governments, Australia included, to ride on the coattails of Ukrainian bravery than to seek compromise.
It’s only costing us money.
