According to ESPN Stats and Information, no seven-win team in NFL history had a worse point differential than the 2021 Falcons, who were outscored by 146 points. That’s not just because the league added a 17th game. No seven-win team had a worse point differential over a 16-game schedule, either.
The Falcons had a better record than those numbers suggest because they were 7-2 in games decided by a margin of eight points or less. Coach Arthur Smith says that’s evidence that the Falcons were good at situational football. I say point differential was the truer measure of Smith’s team in 2021. They were a very bad team with good luck.
Now the Falcons have less talent and a tougher schedule. They won’t be so fortunate in close games this season. Those are my guiding principles as I predict how their season plays out.
