Key Takeaways
- Fitch now projects 1.4% growth for Mexico in 2026, up from 1.0%, with 1.8% expected in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, according to Expansión.
- Goods that qualify under USMCA still enter the US duty-free; items that do not qualify pay a 10% Section 301 duty that, per Mexico's government, replaced an equivalent charge rather than adding a new one.
- Autos and metals carry the real exposure, so origin certificates and entry records now matter as much as the growth forecast.
Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 growth projection for Mexico to 1.4% from 1.0% on Tuesday, pointing to a stronger second quarter, the US artificial-intelligence build-out and a comparatively kind tariff position, La Jornada reported. The agency also flagged the yearly USMCA review cycle as a brake on investment.
For anyone shipping goods across the border, the practical question is less whether tariffs are "favorable" and more whether each shipment qualifies for treaty treatment.
What Fitch Changed
The upgrade rests on a rebound in the spring. Mexican output rose 1.4% from the prior quarter between April and June after contracting 0.3% in the first three months. Fitch noted that most of the bounce arrived in April, and INEGI's monthly indicators showed activity sliding in May and June.
Fitch sits above some private forecasters. As of July, IMEF projected 1.1% and BBVA 1.2% for 2026, so the new figure is best read as the optimistic end of the range.
Mexico's global merchandise exports reached US$389.7 billion in the first half, a record and 24.6% higher than a year earlier, according to INEGI. That headline covers all destinations. Shipments to the United States alone totaled US$298.2 billion, up 13.0%.
Computing hardware is doing the heavy lifting. In May, computers were Mexico's largest export to the United States at $16.2 billion, far ahead of vehicle parts. Cars tell a different story: automotive exports edged up only 1% worldwide and fell 2.7% on the US side in the first half.
Why "Favorable" Does Not Mean "Settled"
No bilateral tariff agreement exists here. Fitch's base case is simply that Mexico keeps comparatively good treatment, with a real risk that negotiations stall.
The caution traces to July 1, when Washington declined to confirm a new 16-year term. The treaty stays fully in force, but that step triggers yearly joint reviews until the pact's scheduled 2036 expiry unless all three governments agree to extend it.
Talks have narrowed the agenda. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard says the list of US complaints shrank from 54 items to 14. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told senators he hopes for interim deals with Mexico and Canada this year, leaving auto content, labor and environmental standards for 2027. A fourth US-Mexico round in Washington was tentatively planned for the coming week, with both sides reportedly eyeing a framework before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Its outcome was not known at the time of writing.
What the Tariff Rules Mean at the Loading Dock
Ordinary goods. Since July 24, Mexican products that do not enter duty-free under USMCA face an added 10% under a Section 301 forced-labor action, while treaty-qualifying goods are excluded. Mexico's Economy Ministry says the duty replaces an equivalent Section 122 charge, so treatment of non-qualifying goods is essentially unchanged, and that more than 80% of Mexican exports remain exempt. That share is a government estimate, not audited customs data.
Autos and parts. The picture is tougher. Washington applies a 25% Section 232 tariff to vehicle imports, with relief limited to the US content of USMCA-compliant vehicles. Compliant auto parts are exempt for now, though trade advisers describe that carve-out as transitional and expect the levy to shift to the non-US portion of qualifying parts. Steel and aluminum from Mexico and Canada face 50% duties. Mexico supplies about 44.6% of US auto-part imports, so small suppliers in that chain feel every change quickly.
The Flashpoint: How "American" a Car Must Be
Washington wants vehicles to carry 50% US-made content to earn preferential access. Mexico objects and is asking for relief from the auto, steel and aluminum tariffs before conceding elsewhere, while the White House has shown no sign of easing them. Shippers should confirm the applicable rate for their own tariff codes.
Fitch cautioned that companies could put off investment until the new operating rules are clear. The knock-on effect lands downstream: contract manufacturers, freight brokers and parts distributors can see fewer orders even while headline exports climb.
A Practical Checklist for Importers and Exporters
Compliance trackers advise companies to revalidate origin certificates built on 2025 calculations, watch the metals and auto files, and plan for more audits.
Refunds are a separate matter. Duties collected under the emergency-powers (IEEPA) tariffs from early 2025 through Feb. 24, 2026 are eligible for refunds through Customs and Border Protection's claims process. Duties paid later under Section 122, 232 or 301 do not qualify, so importers should keep entry summaries and duty records and ask trade counsel which entries are eligible.
The Bottom Line
Fitch's 1.4% call reflects genuine momentum, yet it depends on assumptions Washington can alter. An interim deal could unlock investment; a stalemate leaves every contract with a Mexican link priced for uncertainty.
