Mexico is suffering its worst drought in 70 years. Its largest city is under severe water rationing, while farmers have seen their lands and crops ravaged. Production of corn, a food staple, has dropped by as much as 50% in some parts of the country.
North of the border, American farmers produced a record corn crop in 2023, and that surplus is ready to make its way to Mexico. U.S. corn exports to Mexico were forecast to rise to 22 million tons for the 2024-2025 marketing year. But protectionist measures by Mexico's government could interrupt that flow, threatening livestock production, food supply chains, and food security. The Mexican government must reverse course.
Proposed restrictions on imported genetically modified corn -- both white corn for dough and tortillas and yellow corn for animal feed -- could spike the price of corn and tortilla in Mexico by 19% and 16%, respectively. More than 10% of the Mexican population already lacks sufficient access to food, spending more than half their household income on corn-derived products. Under such an import ban, food insecurity levels could double or even triple in the nine poorest Mexican states. Mexico's GDP could fall by nearly $12 billion over 10 years.
