Met Office says weather confidence for Christmas is…

Met Office says weather confidence for Christmas is unusually low

The chances of a white Christmas are still up in the air in Wales with uncertainty in the forecast for the week ahead. Meteorologists at the Met Office say there is currently low confidence in the forecast as a jet stream from North America moves across the UK leaving several options still open.

While most of the country is expected to see much milder temperatures than in the previous week, the Met Office has said that some areas of higher ground could see a sprinkling of white stuff but this is unlikely to be widespread. But for those holding out hope for a white Christmas it's not completely ruled out with uncertainty in the forecast.

After dropping to -13°C in parts, Wales is now back firmly in double digits as the hope of a white Christmas gradually fades. While there had been some reports that Wales could expect a 'snow burst', these have now been firmly debunked by meteorologists. You can read more about that here.

The Met Office said that the current weekly pattern shows a battle between warmer areas on the south coast and it being much colder up north with uncertainty moving up and down the UK. As a result of the uncertainty, they said it was difficult to predict the exact forecast for each area and the wintery weather may extend south turning into rain.

Met Office forecaster Greg Dewhurst told the Mirror that colder air is again coming down from the Arctic over the weekend. He stated: "The jet stream remains close to the UK meaning low pressures will move in from the Atlantic, orange on the map meaning fairly mild at the moment but if we run the sequence through over the next few days we might see some colder air trying to push down from the north. This may introduce some colder air across central parts and northern parts as we enter the Christmas weekend."

Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Dan Harris also added that the chance of there being snow in the south of the country isn't high at the moment. "From mid-week we expect to see a north/south split develop with colder weather arriving in the north, while the south hangs onto the mild conditions," he said.

"There are, however, large uncertainties concerning where the boundary between these two air masses will eventually end up, especially as we head into the Christmas weekend. Uncertainty in the weather forecast details is not unusual at 6-7 days out, and the current weather patterns are heightening those uncertainties. A range of outcomes are still possible."

The Met Office forecast for Wales:

Thursday:

"Rather cloudy with scattered showers throughout the morning. A band of persistent, locally heavy, rain will then arrive from the south into the afternoon. Maximum temperature 12 °C."

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

"Changeable into the Christmas weekend with showers and longer periods of rain interspersed by sunny spells. Breezy at times but temperatures generally on the mild side."

Sunday, December 25 to Tuesday January 3

"Confidence is unusually low for this whole period. The most probable scenario has cold conditions affecting northern areas and pushing south into milder air at times, however there is significant uncertainty in the location and movement of the boundary between the regimes. Any milder conditions are likely to be accompanied by wetter weather. Periods of rain are likely to run west-to-east across the country, bringing a threat of snow where they meet the colder air. Temperatures likely to be cold in the north and milder further south in general, however a downward trend is likely across all areas with average to below average temperatures for the country as a whole most likely for this period overall."

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