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Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
National
Thomas George

Met Office gives update on when new 'Beast from the East' could hit

The Met Office has given an update on when a new 'Beast from the East' could hit the UK.

Forecasters say a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), which could lead to another 'Beast from the East', is underway but the impact will not be felt until the first week of March.

A sudden stratospheric warming is when a rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere - the second layer of the atmosphere immediately above the troposphere. It is often thought to lead to widespread snow and cold temperatures, but that's not always the case.

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Met office forecaster Aidan McGivern said: "We are seeing a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming taking place above the North Pole and what that means is that the winds in the stratosphere surrounding the North Pole are expected to reverse, instead of going from west to east they are going to go from east to west.

"That can have a drag effect on the jet stream which can slow the jet stream down which can in turn lead to higher pressure at the surface, a blocking area of high pressure, blocking wind and rain from the Atlantic and sometimes leading to colder conditions. That’s why Sudden Stratospheric Warmings increase the chance of cold weather.

"Not immediately, though, although this is taking place right now, there is a lag effect so we are not expecting an impact if any to take place until the first week of March."

Mr McGivern said that while there will be a high pressure at the start of March there is no indication yet that it will be particularly cold, the Mirror reports.

Snow in Rochdale town centre during the Beast from the East in 2018 (Manchester Evening News)

"So what can we say about the potential impact, remember there are a lot of ifs, buts and maybes here because although this is currently taking place there is no strong signal for the effect it is going to have at the surface," he said.

"Not all Sudden Stratospheric Warmings lead to cold weather at the surface but what we are seeing from the computer models for the start of March is a signal for higher than normal pressure that would be consistent with the slowing down of the jet stream.

"However, we are not seeing a strong signal for colder weather because it would depend for the UK on where that higher than normal pressure ends up, whether it is a strong high to the north of the UK or whether it is centred over the UK which would lead to more typical temperatures for the time of year."

Mild weather is expected to continue through the coming days before the mercury drops quite suddenly part way through next week with widespread subzero temperatures.

There have been temperatures this week in the high teens thanks to a high pressure but colder weather is now around the corner.

"It looks as though there are some changes on the way from the middle of next week that high pressure begins to migrate towards the southwest or even the west of the UK and that would allow for some of the weather fronts in the north to topple their way southwards,” Mr McGivern added.

“With winds coming from the northwest from the middle of the week that would allow as well as conditions turning fairly showery, it would allow lower temperatures, so after a mild start a temperature trend downwards.”

Elsewhere in the UK, a yellow warning for strong winds has been issued for this Friday covering Scotland and the northeast of England.

Greater Manchester 5 day weather forecast

Today:

The morning will be cloudy with patchy rain and some mist and fog. The rain will gradually peter out during the afternoon, with fog becoming confined to the hills, and some brighter breaks developing in places. Another mild day. Maximum temperature 11C.

Tonight:

The evening will start dry with some clear intervals. However, cloud will thicken to bring damp, misty conditions overnight, with fog over the hills. A mild, but increasingly windy night. Minimum temperature 7C.

Friday:

Friday morning will be cloudy and windy with some rain at times. However, skies should slowly brighten from the north during the afternoon, as winds ease. Staying mild. Maximum temperature 12C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Saturday should be mostly dry after early rain clears with a few bright spells. Sunday and Monday look generally cloudy with patchy rain. Remaining mild, although becoming breezy again.

Read the latest headlines here.

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