Welcome to college basketball’s Championship Week! With Selection Sunday officially days, and not weeks, away, Sports Illustrated is bringing you daily (and sometimes hourly) updates to the projected field as conference tournament results come in. From automatic bids being locked up in smaller conferences to key bubble battles in the power leagues, we’re keeping you updated with all the news and notes to get you prepared for the bracket reveal Sunday evening.
Here’s a look at the latest projected men’s field:
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
Vanderbilt Commodores
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Indiana Hoosiers
Last Four In:
Arkansas Razorbacks
San Diego State Aztecs
Xavier Musketeers
Ohio State Buckeyes
First Four Out:
North Carolina Tar Heels
Colorado State Rams
Boise State Broncos
UC Irvine Anteaters
Next Four Out:
Texas Longhorns
SMU Mustangs
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Cincinnati Bearcats
Notes From Tuesday:
The biggest movement came from Gonzaga beating Saint Mary’s in the WCC title game, which moved the Zags up from a No. 8 seed to a No. 7 and dropped Saint Mary’s from a No. 5 to a No. 6. The Zags’ résumé is still not great, but it’s good enough to justify getting them off the 8/9 line given their elite performance metrics. Otherwise, the only notable results were automatic qualifiers: UNC Wilmington and Robert Morris hold steady in their current positions, while Saint Francis becomes the lowest-rated team in the field after upsetting an excellent CCSU team in the NEC title game.
Bubble Games to Watch Wednesday:
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones, 12:30 p.m. ET
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. South Carolina Gamecocks, 1 p.m. ET
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 2:30 p.m. ET
Texas Longhorns vs. Vanderbilt Commodores, 3:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Iowa Hawkeyes, 6 p.m. ET
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Georgia Bulldogs, 9:30 p.m. ET
Today’s bubble games can largely be broken up into “win and in” games and “must-win to stay in the conversation” games. In the first category: Arkansas and Oklahoma. Arkansas gets a chance to avenge a March 1 blowout loss against South Carolina to open the SEC tournament. A loss might not knock out Arkansas, but things could get dicey in a hurry especially if any bid-stealers emerge. Win here and it’s hard to envision a circumstance where the Razorbacks would get left out. Same goes for Oklahoma: The Sooners’ résumé is in good shape, but one more Quad 1 win over Georgia would be the cherry on top. Win that one and OU should avoid Dayton and the First Four.
The second category consists of de-facto elimination games. Ohio State is under the brightest spotlight as the last team in our projected field despite an ugly 17–14 regular season record. Lose to Iowa and it feels almost impossible to envision the Buckeyes dancing. A win alone might not be enough depending on what happens the rest of the week, but it would keep the Buckeyes in the field for now. For North Carolina, Wednesday is just about giving yourself more chances later in the ACC tournament (Thursday against Wake Forest, Friday against Duke). A loss would end the Heels’ serious NCAA tournament hopes. Texas beating Vanderbilt wouldn’t be enough on its own, but it would give the Longhorns new life and set up a huge opportunity against Texas A&M on Thursday. And while Cincinnati’s best path to a bid is likely winning the Big 12 tournament, beating Iowa State on Wednesday would be a major needle-mover with more opportunities to come later this week.
Automatic Bids to Be Clinched Wednesday:
Numbers reflect conference tournament seeds.
Southland: No. 1 McNeese State Cowboys vs. No. 2 Lamar Cardinals
Patriot: No. 2 American Eagles vs. No. 5 Navy Midshipmen
Big Sky: No. 1 Northern Colorado Bears vs. No. 2 Montana Grizzlies
Projecting the Field of 68
BOLD indicates clinched automatic bid
* indicates projected automatic bid
South Region:
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 SIUE Cougars/American Eagles*
No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 5 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 12 Xavier/Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 10 Baylor Bears
No. 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 15 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks
East Region:
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Saint Francis Red Flash/Southern Jaguars*
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Northern Colorado Bears*
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 10 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials
Midwest Region:
No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs
No. 5 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 12 VCU Rams*
No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 13 Lipscomb Bisons
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 11 Arkansas Razorbacks/San Diego State Aztecs
No. 3 St. John's Red Storm* vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks
No. 7 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*
West Region:
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*
No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 Liberty Flames*
No. 4 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 UC San Diego Tritons*
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Troy Trojans
No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans* vs. No. 15 Wofford Terriers
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: Bubble Teams on the Brink.
