Welcome to State of the Bubble, a weekly column breaking down the March résumés of 16 men’s college basketball teams that find themselves on the cusp of the NCAA tournament.
This column will run each Thursday throughout the rest of the season, utilizing the bubble categories defined by Kevin Sweeney’s weekly bracket watch.
Let’s dive into the outlook of each of the bubble teams heading into the final weekend of February.
*NCAA NET Rankings updated through games played on Feb. 25.
Last Four Byes
UCLA Bruins: 19–9 (11–6 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 39
- Quad 1 Record: 3–7
- Quad 2 Record: 6–2
- Quad 3 Record: 3–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Won 81–62 vs. USC (2/24)
- Next Game: at Minnesota (2/28)
Now that the dust has settled on the Mick Cronin antics during (and after) the Feb. 17 loss to Michigan State—he apologized, by the way—the Bruins are closing in on an NCAA tournament at-large berth. UCLA snagged a 95–94 overtime Quad 1 win at home against No. 10 Illinois over the weekend and followed that up with an 81–62 thrashing of crosstown rival and bubble hopeful USC earlier this week, which was good for another Quad 2 victory on the résumé. The Bruins have three games remaining, and they’re all Quad 1 opportunities (at Minnesota, vs. Nebraska, at USC). Barring an 0–3 record in the stretch, the Bruins should be dancing.
Auburn Tigers: 15–13 (6–9 SEC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 36
- Quad 1 Record: 5–11
- Quad 2 Record: 2–2
- Quad 3 Record: 2–0
- Quad 4 Record: 6–0
- Last Game: Lost 91–79 at Oklahoma (2/24)
- Next Game: vs. Ole Miss (2/28)
No bubble team has played as many Quad 1 games as Auburn, which holds a 5–11 mark in 16(!!!) such affairs. The Tigers hold five Q1 wins on the résumé, which are keeping them afloat amid a stretch that has seen Steven Pearl’s club drop six of its last seven contests. The latest was a confounding 91–79 loss at Oklahoma, which goes down as a Quad 1 loss but is still a head-scratcher considering how much the Sooners have struggled this season. Auburn closes with home games against Ole Miss and LSU before traveling to Alabama for the season finale. The Tigers need some wins—and fast.
UCF Knights: 20–7 (9–6 Big 12)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 43
- Quad 1 Record: 5–5
- Quad 2 Record: 5–2
- Quad 3 Record: 3–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Won 97–84 at No. 19 BYU (2/24)
- Next Game: vs. Baylor (2/28)
UCF coach Johnny Dawkins entered his 10th season on the job in Orlando with a warming seat. Now, he’s on the short-list of coaches to be considered for a National Coach of the Year award.
The Knights have all-but-locked up their NCAA at-large bid after traveling on the road to No. 19 BYU earlier this week and thrashing AJ Dybantsa and the Cougars, 97–84. It was UCF’s fifth Quad 1 win, and 10th victory this season in the top two quadrants. UCF closes with games at home against Baylor and Oklahoma State, and a road tilt against West Virginia. The Knights should win at least a couple of those contests.
This is likely the last you’ll see of UCF in this column this season. They’re a near-lock to head to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2018–19.
Indiana Hoosiers: 17–11 (8–9 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 40
- Quad 1 Record: 2–10
- Quad 2 Record: 2–1
- Quad 3 Record: 6–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Lost 72–68 vs. Northwestern (2/24)
- Next Game: vs. No. 13 Michigan State (3/1)
The up-and-down Hoosiers have work to do down the stretch in Darian DeVries’s first season at the helm if they want to make it to March. Indiana has now lost three straight, including a 72–68 defeat on their home floor earlier this week against Northwestern—a winnable Quad 2 affair. Indiana has played 12 Quad 1 games, but its 2–10 record leaves much to be desired. A 2–1 mark in Quad 2 games hasn’t helped bolster the résumé much either. Indiana has three games left, beginning at home against No. 13 Michigan State this weekend. The Hoosiers will then host Minnesota on Senior Night before closing out the season on the road against fellow bubble foe Ohio State. Michigan State and Ohio State represent Quad 1 opportunities for Indiana, while Minnesota is a Quad 2 tilt. A 2–1 stretch (or better) would really help Indiana’s at-large case heading into the Big Ten tournament in a couple weeks.
Last Four In
Santa Clara Broncos: 23–7 (14–3 WCC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 41
- Quad 1 Record: 1–5
- Quad 2 Record: 7–1
- Quad 3 Record: 9–0
- Quad 4 Record: 5–1
- Last Game: Lost 86–67 at Saint Mary’s (2/25)
- Next Game: vs. Oregon State (2/28)
Santa Clara played its final road game of the season on Wednesday night—a Quad 1 tilt against Saint Mary’s—and was thrashed 86–67. It was a must-win for the Broncos, who really could have used a second Q1 victory to offset a December Quad 4 defeat on a neutral floor against Loyola Chicago. The Broncos close the season with a Quad 4 game at home against Oregon State. An at-large berth is still possible, but several power conference bubble teams will have more than one Q1 victory, and several will have as many victories in the top two quads as the Broncos’ eight.
A victory against the Gaels or Gonzaga in the WCC tournament would do wonders for the program’s March outlook.
Missouri Tigers: 19–9 (9–6 SEC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 57
- Quad 1 Record: 5–5
- Quad 2 Record: 4–4
- Quad 3 Record: 2–0
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Won 73–69 vs. No. 22 Tennessee (2/24)
- Next Game: at Mississippi State (2/28)
Missouri dropped a tough one against No. 20 Arkansas on the road last weekend, but followed it up with a four-point home win over No. 22 Tennessee. The Tigers are now 3–1 in their last four Quad 1 games, and have won five of their last seven games overall. Mizzou is up to nine wins in the top two quads, and five in Quad 1. They’re rounding into form, and looking more and more like a team that’s deserving of an at-large berth. Games at Mississippi State (Q2), at Oklahoma (Q1) and a rematch at home against Arkansas (Q1) remain. All three are tournament-boosting opportunities for the Tigers, who still have a bit of work to do.
TCU Horned Frogs: 18–10 (8–7 Big 12)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 45
- Quad 1 Record: 4–7
- Quad 2 Record: 4–1
- Quad 3 Record: 3–1
- Quad 4 Record: 7–1
- Last Game: Won 90–78 vs. Arizona State (2/24)
- Next Game: at Kansas State (2/28)
Since losing on the road to UCF last week (no shame in that, by the way), TCU has taken care of business in its last two games, beating West Virginia and Arizona State at home in back-to-back Quad 2 contests. The Horned Frogs now have four wins in Q1 and four wins in Q2, but two losses combined in the bottom two quads have the program sitting squarely on the bubble.
TCU can’t afford any slip-ups in their remaining two Quad 2 games on the road against Kansas State and at home against Cincinnati. Both are as close to must-win as a program can get. Sandwiched between those two games is a Quad 1 road game at Texas Tech, which is a realistic upset chance as the Red Raiders navigate life without All-American JT Toppin.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 17–11 (9–8 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 35
- Quad 1 Record: 1–10
- Quad 2 Record: 6–1
- Quad 3 Record: 4–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Lost 74–57 at Iowa (2/25)
- Next Game: Home vs. No. 8 Purdue (3/1)
Ohio State’s Jake Diebler could be coaching for his job over the next couple weeks, as the Buckeyes are in desperate need of wins after losing four of their last six games. The latest came on Wednesday night in the form of a 17-point thrashing at the hands of Iowa.
The Buckeyes have a Quad 1 game at home against No. 8 Purdue this weekend before two Quad 2 games against Penn State and Indiana round out the schedule. A December victory against Northwestern represents Ohio State’s lone Quad 1 victory at this juncture, so a home upset of Purdue this weekend would help the Buckeyes tremendously. They have plenty of work to do down the stretch as they trend towards the wrong side of the bubble.
First Four Out
New Mexico Lobos: 21–7 (12–5 Mountain West)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 44
- Quad 1 Record: 1–5
- Quad 2 Record: 7–1
- Quad 3 Record: 4–1
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Lost 67–60 at Nevada (2/24)
- Next Game: vs. San Diego State (2/28)
New Mexico has won three of its last four, but Tuesday’s 67–60 loss on the road at Nevada in a Quad 1 game is a missed opportunity for the Lobos who could really use another couple wins in the top two quads. Games remain at home against San Diego State (a must-win Quad 2 game against a conference bubble foe), at home against Colorado State (Quad 3) and a road game at Utah State (Quad 1). A 3–0 stretch here should send the Lobos dancing. 2–1 or worse will likely leave work to be done in the Mountain West tournament.
USC Trojans: 18–10 (7–10 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 63
- Quad 1 Record: 2–7
- Quad 2 Record: 7–2
- Quad 3 Record: 5–1
- Quad 4 Record: 3–0
- Last Game: Lost 81–62 at UCLA (2/24)
- Next Game: vs. Nebraska (2/28)
Eric Musselman’s Trojans have now lost four-straight games, with the latest a 19-point loss to fellow bubble hopeful UCLA. USC continues to trend in the wrong direction down the stretch, and will need to right the ship quickly if the program wants to avoid the NIT. The Trojans only have two Quad 1 wins to their name, which is short of what’s needed with a loss in Q3. Seven Quad 2 wins help USC’s case, but a 2–1 or better closing stretch at home against No. 12 Nebraska (Q1) on the road against Washington (Q1) and at home against UCLA (Q2) would help even more.
San Diego State Aztecs: 19–8 (13–4 Mountain West)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 46
- Quad 1 Record: 2–4
- Quad 2 Record: 5–2
- Quad 3 Record: 5–2
- Quad 4 Record: 6–0
- Last Game: Won 89–72 vs. Utah State (2/25)
- Next Game: at New Mexico (2/28)
After falling to Colorado State on the road last weekend, San Diego State picked up a desperately-needed Quad 1 win on Wednesday night against Utah State. The Aztecs now have two such victories, to go along with five wins in Quad 2. The kicker for San Diego State is that the program is just 5–2 in Quad 3 games, leaving work to be done in the final three games. Two of those contests are Quad 1 opportunities beginning on Saturday at New Mexico. The Aztecs then finish the season with a trip to Boise State (Q1) and a home game against UNLV (Q3).
VCU Rams: 21–7 (12–3 Atlantic-10)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 47
- Quad 1 Record: 1–5
- Quad 2 Record: 5–2
- Quad 3 Record: 7–0
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Lost 88–75 at No. 18 Saint Louis (2/20)
- Next Game: vs. Fordham (2/28)
VCU let a golden opportunity slip away on the road at No. 18 Saint Louis last Friday night, blowing a lead and ultimately losing by 13 in a Quad 1 game against the Billikens. VCU closes at home against Fordham (Q4) and George Mason (Q3) before traveling to Dayton (Q1) in the season finale. The Rams need to go 3–0 here and perhaps win a few games in the A-10 tournament to feel really good about an at-large berth.
Next Four Out
Virginia Tech Hokies: 18–10 (7–8 ACC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 50
- Quad 1 Record: 2–8
- Quad 2 Record: 6–1
- Quad 3 Record: 3–1
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Won 82–63 vs. Wake Forest (2/21)
- Next Game: at No. 18 North Carolina (2/28)
The roller coaster year for the Hokies continued with a 19-point blowout win in Blacksburg against Wake Forest last Saturday. Virginia Tech now owns six Quad 2 wins to go along with two victories in Quad 1, as the team continues to try to undo a 92–69 home Quad III loss to Florida State earlier this month. A Quad 1 road upset at No. 18 North Carolina would go a long way towards bolstering the program’s March hopes. The final two games feature games at home against Boston College (Q4) and on the road against No. 11 Virginia. A 3–0 stretch and a win or two in the ACC tournament would seal a bid for the Hokies, but that’s a lot to ask for at this juncture.
Cal Golden Bears: 20–8 (8–7 ACC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 59
- Quad 1 Record: 5–4
- Quad 2 Record: 1–4
- Quad 3 Record: 5–0
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Won 73–69 vs. SMU (2/25)
- Next Game: vs. Pittsburgh (2/28)
It’s been a strange season for Cal, who picked up its fifth Quad 1 win in a 73–69 tilt at home against SMU on Wednesday night. The victory is a significant one for the résumé, which includes a 1–4 record in Quad 2 games. Anything better than that in Quad 2 with a 5–4 Quad 1 record would likely find Cal on the right side of the bubble at this point. Alas, a 3–0 close at home against Pittsburgh (Q3), at Georgia Tech (Q2) and at Wake Forest (Q1) would really help the tournament hopes for the Bears, who would still likely have some work to do in the ACC tournament for a bid.
Seton Hall Pirates: 19–9 (9–8 Big East)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 55
- Quad 1 Record: 1–3
- Quad 2 Record: 5–4
- Quad 3 Record: 7–2
- Quad 4 Record: 6–0
- Last Game: Won 51–47 vs. Georgetown (2/21)
- Next Game: at No. 6 UConn (2/28)
Seton Hall’s narrow home escape against Georgetown in a Quad 3 game last Saturday kept the Pirates’ tournament hopes alive in what would have otherwise been a death knell. Seton Hall holds just six victories in the top two quads, with only one of those six wins coming in Q1 games. That’s simply not enough for a résumé that also features two Quad 3 defeats. The Pirates have a tough road game against No. 6 UConn this Saturday, before closing on the road against Xavier (Q2) and at home against No. 15 St. John’s (Q1). It’s a closing stretch that few would envy, and the Pirates likely need wins in all three of those games. Their hopes are fading fast after losing to DePaul on Feb. 18.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 15–13 (7–8 Big 12)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 51
- Quad 1 Record: 2–10
- Quad 2 Record: 5–2
- Quad 3 Record: 1–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–1
- Last Game: Lost 80–68 at No. 16 Texas Tech (2/24)
- Next Game: Home vs. Oklahoma State (2/28)
Cincinnati looked like a team that would surely miss the tournament. But after Wes Miller’s club rattled off four-straight victories, including a win at No. 8 Kansas, the door reopened for the Bearcats’ at-large hopes. Cincinnati lost by 12 on the road to No. 16 Texas Tech in a Quad 1 game earlier this week, but still has two Quad 1 games remaining down the stretch against BYU at home and TCU on the road. But first, the Bearcats must take care of business at home this Saturday in a Quad 3 game against Oklahoma State. Anything less than a 3–0 finish and a few wins in the Big 12 tournament will keep the Bearcats on the wrong side of the bubble, especially with a Quad 4 loss on the résumé. It’s likely too little, too late for Cincinnati, but there is still a chance to land a bid seemingly out of nowhere with a strong finish to the season.
More College Basketball on Sports Illustrated
- John Calipari Is Wondering Why Darius Acuff Isn’t a National Player of the Year Candidate
- St. John's Went Historically Cold to Close Out Its Blowout Loss to UConn
- Women’s Basketball Bubble Watch: Virginia and Clemson Make a Statement
- Oklahoma State Senior Gives Emotional Press Conference After Suffering Brutal Injury
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Basketball State of the Bubble: UCLA and UCF Likely in Following Résumé-Boosting Victories .
