Welcome to State of the Bubble, a new weekly column breaking down the March résumés of 16 teams that find themselves on the cusp of the NCAA tournament.
This column will run each Thursday throughout the rest of the season, utilizing the bubble categories defined by Kevin Sweeney’s weekly bracket watch.
Since the latest bracket watch was published, two ACC bubble teams in Miami and Virginia Tech picked up significant résumé-boosting victories, with the Hurricanes taking down No. 11 North Carolina, while the Hokies captured its second victory against a ranked opponent this season with a 10-point victory at No. 20 Clemson.
Let’s dive into the outlook of each of the bubble teams heading into Valentine’s Day weekend, beginning with the Last Four Byes.
*NCAA NET Rankings updated through games played on Feb. 11.
Last Four Byes
USC Trojans: 18–7 (7–7 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 49
- Quad 1 Record: 2–5
- Quad 2 Record: 7–2
- Quad 3 Record: 4–0
- Quad 4 Record: 4–0
- Last Game: Lost 89–82 at Ohio State (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Home vs. No. 8 Illinois (Feb. 18)
The open week for USC in the middle of Big Ten play couldn’t have come at a better time for the Trojans, who suffered a brutal loss to fellow bubble foe Ohio State in Columbus on Wednesday night. The defeat snapped a three-game win streak for Eric Musselman’s bunch, who now have a full week off to regroup before hosting No. 8 Illinois in a contest that would go a long way towards a tournament berth if the Trojans found a way to pull off an upset.
Saint Mary’s Gaels: 22–4 (11–2 WCC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 28
- Quad 1 Record: 0–3
- Quad 2 Record: 4–1
- Quad 3 Record: 9–0
- Quad 4 Record: 9–0
- Last Game: Won 88–60 vs. Pepperdine (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Away at Pacific (Feb. 14)
Saint Mary’s smoked Pepperdine on Wednesday night to move to 22–4 on the season and 11–2 in WCC play. It was a Quad 4 win for the Gaels, who now have three upcoming Quad 2 games and Quad 1 rematch with Gonzaga awaiting at home in the regular season finale. The Gaels look like a tournament team, but the closing stretch of back-to-back home games against Santa Clara on Feb. 25 and Gonzaga on Feb. 28 could make-or-break St. Mary’s chances of securing an NCAA at-large bid ahead of the WCC tournament.
UCLA Bruins: 17–7 (9–4 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 39
- Quad 1 Record: 2–6
- Quad 2 Record: 5–1
- Quad 3 Record: 2–0
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Won 77–73 vs. Washington (Feb. 7)
- Next Game: Away at No. 2 Michigan (Feb. 14)
UCLA has endured an up-and-down season thus far, but has won two straight heading into Saturday afternoon’s road tilt in Ann Arbor against No. 2 Michigan. UCLA is in the middle of its open week, and it’ll be seven days between games by the time the Bruins reach tip-off time on Saturday against the Wolverines. UCLA comes off the open week to face three ranked opponents in a row in Michigan, No. 10 Michigan State in East Lansing (Feb. 17), and No. 8 Illinois in Westwood (Feb. 21). Snagging at least one win in the upcoming gauntlet could remove the Bruins from the bubble and safely into the field.
Texas Longhorns: 15–9 (6–5 SEC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 38
- Quad 1 Record: 4–6
- Quad 2 Record: 1–2
- Quad 3 Record: 2–1
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Won 79–68 vs. Ole Miss (Feb. 7)
- Next Game: Away at Mizzou (Feb. 14)
With seven games remaining, there is no shortage of résumé-building opportunities for the Longhorns, who have five Quad 1 games and two Quad 2 games left on the schedule. The first of the remaining Quad 1 games comes on Saturday on the road at Missouri, where a win would really boost the March outlook for the Longhorns. Texas has won four out of five entering Saturday’s road tilt, and continuing to stack victories at this stage will help Sean Miller’s bunch improve their chances of making an NCAA tournament in his first year at the helm.
Last Four In
Santa Clara: 22–5 (13–1 WCC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 41
- Quad 1 Record: 1–3
- Quad 2 Record: 5–1
- Quad 3 Record: 9–0
- Quad 4 Record: 6–1
- Last Game: Won 84–72 vs. Seattle (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Home vs. No. 12 Gonzaga (Feb. 14)
The Broncos are doing everything in their power to avenge an 80–78 Dec. 20 Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago that is dragging the program’s résumé down significantly. Unfortunately, WCC teams are no strangers to having trouble finding quality conference wins to avenge bad losses on the docket. One way to quell concerns about missing out on a bid on Selection Sunday would be to pick up a second Quad 1 victory at home against 12th-ranked Gonzaga on Saturday.
San Diego State Aztecs: 17–6 (11–2 Mountain West)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 42
- Quad 1 Record: 1–5
- Quad 2 Record: 3–0
- Quad 3 Record: 6–1
- Quad 4 Record: 6–0
- Last Game: Won 88–54 at Air Force (Feb. 7)
- Next Game: Home vs. Nevada (Feb. 14)
A soft schedule to-date has the 17–6 Aztecs squarely on the bubble entering the stretch run of the regular season. San Diego State has a 4–5 mark in nine games between Q1 and Q2 entering Valentine’s Day weekend, with only one of those four wins coming in Q1. Fortunately for Brian Dutcher’s bunch, the closing stretch of the conference slate provides plenty of room to improve the résumé. Saturday’s contest against Nevada is the first of three consecutive Q2 games, on a schedule that also includes three Q1 opportunities late with a home game vs. Utah State (Feb. 25) and road games at New Mexico (Feb. 28) and at Boise State (March 3).
The final four weeks of the season will tell us a lot about just how good this Aztecs team actually is.
Missouri Tigers: 17–7 (7–4 SEC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 57
- Quad 1 Record: 3–4
- Quad 2 Record: 3–3
- Quad 3 Record: 3–0
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Won 86–85 at Texas A&M (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Home vs. Texas (Feb. 14)
Missouri picked up a monumental Quad 1 victory on Wednesday night, they’re third of the season which should push the Tigers out of the Last Four In and safely into the field (for now). Another big game awaits Missouri at home on Saturday against Texas, the first of two remaining Quad 2 opportunities in the schedule’s final seven games. The five other contests are all Quad 1 opponents for Missouri, who will likely just need a few more victories in the final seven games to not even worry about the bubble again.
Miami Hurricanes: 19–5 (8–3 ACC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 36
- Quad 1 Record: 3–3
- Quad 2 Record: 4–1
- Quad 3 Record: 3–1
- Quad 4 Record: 9–0
- Last Game: Won 75–66 vs. No. 11 North Carolina (Feb. 10)
- Next Game: Away at NC State (Feb. 14)
Miami did wonders for its tournament résumé by upsetting 11th-ranked North Carolina at home on Tuesday night. The victory was Miami’s third Quad 1 win, and seventh victory for the Hurricanes in the top two quads in the NET. The Hurricanes have now effectively avenged their lone bad loss, a 65–63 home defeat to Florida State on Jan. 20. A .500 record down the stretch of the season against NC State, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Florida State, Boston College, SMU and Louisville (which is doable) should find the Hurricanes comfortably in the NCAA tournament field.
First Four Out
Ohio State Buckeyes: 16–8 (8–6 Big Ten)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 40
- Quad 1 Record: 1–7
- Quad 2 Record: 4–1
- Quad 3 Record: 5–0
- Quad 4 Record: 6–0
- Last Game: Won 89–82 vs. USC (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Neutral Site vs. No. 15 Virginia (Feb. 14)
The Ohio State tournament résumé continues to lack top-end quality wins, which is why Tuesday’s win over fellow Big Ten bubble foe USC was such a big victory for the Buckeyes. It marked the fifth win in Quad 2 for Ohio State, which remains winless in Quad 1 this season (0–7). Fortunately for Jake Diebler & Co., there are still four Q1 opportunities remaining on the schedule, beginning with a Valentine’s Day weekend neutral site tilt with 15th-ranked Virginia at the Nashville Hoops Showdown.
New Mexico Lobos: 19–6 (10–4 Mountain West)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 44
- Quad 1 Record: 2–4
- Quad 2 Record: 5–1
- Quad 3 Record: 4–1
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Won 70–64 at Grand Canyon (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Home vs. Air Force (Feb. 17)
New Mexico can ill-afford a bad loss at this juncture, with a soft remaining schedule lacking quality résumé-building opportunities. Fortunately for the Lobos, they picked up their second Quad 1 win of the season on Wednesday night at Grand Canyon. The Lobos now have seven wins between Quads 1 and 2, and only one loss in Quad 3 to boot. Quad 1 road games at Nevada (Feb. 24) and at Utah State (March 7) could tell the tale of whether or not the Lobos are an at-large team in March. That is, of course, assuming that New Mexico takes care of business in games they’ll be favored in the rest of the way. Even so, a deep run in the Mountain West conference tournament wouldn’t hurt.
VCU Rams: 19–6 (10–2 A-10)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 48
- Quad 1 Record: 0–4
- Quad 2 Record: 5–2
- Quad 3 Record: 5–0
- Quad 4 Record: 9–0
- Last Game: Won 77–68 at La Salle (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Away at Richmond (Feb. 14)
Can a team from the A-10 with no Quad I wins make it to the NCAA tournament if it doesn’t win its conference tournament? VCU probably doesn’t want to find out that answer.
The Rams moved to 19–6 on the season after picking up its 10th conference victory on Wednesday night at La Salle. VCU has a solid team and a résumé to-date that features no bad losses. The Rams’ six losses this season have all come against Quad 1 and Quad 2 competition. The issue for VCU is that there are no Quad 1 wins on the books, and only one Quad 1 game remains on the schedule—a Feb. 20 road game against No. 18 Saint Louis—which is a must-win if the Rams want any chance of an at-large bid come Selection Sunday.
Of course, the Rams could just win the A-10 tournament and render all of this moot with an auto-bid.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 16–8 (4–7 Big 12)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 70
- Quad 1 Record: 1–6
- Quad 2 Record: 6–2
- Quad 3 Record: 2–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Lost 85–76 at Arizona State (Feb. 10)
- Next Game: Home vs. TCU (Feb. 14)
Oklahoma State is another program lacking top wins in Quad 1, but is relying on a clean record in Quads 3 and 4, along with six Quad 2 victories to boost its chances of making the tournament. This is an NCAA team without question if a few of the program’s six Quad 1 losses go differently. The Cowboys are just 1–6 against the toughest teams on their schedule. Fortunately for Oklahoma State, all seven of their remaining contests reside in the top two quads, offering plenty of upward bubble mobility ahead of the Big 12 conference tournament. These next few weeks will be crucial.
Next Four Out
Seton Hall Pirates: 17–8 (7–7 Big East)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 53
- Quad 1 Record: 1–4
- Quad 2 Record: 4–4
- Quad 3 Record: 5–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Won 87–80 vs. Providence (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Away at Butler (Feb. 15)
Seton Hall took care of business with a seven-point Quad 3 home win against Providence on Wednesday night. The Pirates improved to 5–0 in Quad 3 games, and remained perfect against bottom two quadrant teams on the schedule (12–0). Wednesday night’s game didn’t help Seton Hall’s case for an at-large bid, but it certainly didn’t hurt the way that a loss of that magnitude can this late in the proceedings. Seton Hall has three Quad 1 opportunities remaining in Big East play, starting on the road at Butler on Feb. 15. The Pirates’ lone Quad 1 win to-date is an impressive 85–74 neutral site victory over NC State back in November’s Maui Invitational.
Virginia Tech Hokies: 17–8 (6–6 ACC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 51
- Quad 1 Record: 3–7
- Quad 2 Record: 4–1
- Quad 3 Record: 4–0
- Quad 4 Record: 6–0
- Last Game: Won 76–66 at Clemson (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Home vs. Florida State (Feb. 14)
There was no bigger winner on Wednesday night than Virginia Tech, who traveled to Clemson and picked up an impressive 10-point victory over the 20th-ranked Tigers. It is the Hokies’ third Quad 1 win, and has improved Tech’s chances of making the NCAA tournament drastically. The program still has work to do down the stretch with a road schedule that features three more Quad 1 games (at Miami, at North Carolina, at Virginia). Tech needs to avoid the bad losses in its remaining home games, beginning with Saturday’s Quad 3 home game against Florida State. But for now, the Hokies have three wins in Quad 1 (3–7), four wins in Quad 2 (4–1), and a perfect record in the bottom two quads. Another Q1 road win down the stretch, along with three home wins against Q2 and Q3 competition could clinch the Hokies an at-large bid come Selection Sunday.
Cal Golden Bears: 17–8 (5–7 ACC)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 63
- Quad 1 Record: 4–5
- Quad 2 Record: 0–3
- Quad 3 Record: 5–0
- Quad 4 Record: 7–0
- Last Game: Lost 107–100 (2OT) at Syracuse (Feb. 11)
- Next Game: Away at Boston College (Feb. 14)
Cal finds itself on the bubble in part due to its lack of Quad 2 wins. One way to quell any concerns for the selection committee would be to have no bad losses and a bunch of Quad 1 victories, which is why Wednesday’s double overtime defeat at Syracuse, the latest Q1 test for Cal, is such a significant loss. The victory would have given the Golden Bears a fifth Q1 win, which would have put the program in stronger position on the bubble in spite of its winless mark in Q2.
With six regular season games to go, Cal has three Q3 games (at Boston College, home vs. Pitt, at Georgia Tech) to go along with two Q2 tilts at home against Stanford and SMU. Only one Q1 game remains, and it’s on the road at Wake Forest to close out the season.
No bad losses, a few more upper quadrant wins and Cal could be firmly in the mix for an at-large heading into the ACC tournament.
West Virginia Mountaineers: 15–9 (6–5 Big 12)
- NCAA NET Ranking: 62
- Quad 1 Record: 3–6
- Quad 2 Record: 1–3
- Quad 3 Record: 3–0
- Quad 4 Record: 8–0
- Last Game: Lost 70–63 vs. No. 13 Texas Tech (Feb. 8)
- Next Game: Away at UCF (Feb. 14)
West Virginia’s résumé is hamstrung by a lack of quality victories. The Mountaineers boast just four wins in nine opportunities against the top two quads in the NET. The good news for West Virginia is that in the program’s seven remaining regular season contests, six of the seven come against Q2 competition or better. Saturday’s road game at UCF is the first of four Quad 1 games left for the Mountaineers, whose NCAA tournament chances rely on a strong finish against a tough schedule down the stretch in year one of the Ross Hodge era.
More College Basketball on Sports Illustrated
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- Bill Self Rips Darryn Peterson Narratives: ‘Just Not Remotely True’
- SI:AM | Kansas State Coach Jerome Tang Blasts Team’s ‘Embarrassing’ Effort
- Kansas State’s Jerome Tang Rips Players After ‘Embarrassing’ Blowout Loss to Cincinnati
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Basketball State of the Bubble: Two ACC Teams Strengthen Tournament Hopes With Critical Victories.
