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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Kevin Sweeney

Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Ohio State Strengthens Case, BYU’s Collapse

BYU Ohio State Ohio (Organization) Basketball Purdue NCAA NEC Cougars Duke JT Toppin

Welcome to March! Sports Illustrated is ready to take you all the way to Selection Sunday on Bracket Watch, with more frequent updates over the next two weeks as conference tournament action gets underway and teams’ bubbles pop. Our first update of March takes you through all the action of the weekend, including a monster win for Ohio State, Texas Tech flexing its muscle on the road and BYU’s continued collapse.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10 | Feb. 17 | Feb. 24

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

SMU
Ohio State
UCLA
TCU

Last Four In

Texas A&M
New Mexico
Santa Clara
VCU

First Four Out

Indiana
San Diego State
Auburn
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out

USC
Cal
Cincinnati
Stanford

The big winner of the weekend was Ohio State, which boosted its profile in a major way by beating Purdue. There’s now little to quibble with about the Buckeyes, with a solid résumé and predictive metrics, no bad losses and a pair of Quad 1 wins. Two wins this week would essentially lock in their spot, but a split may well be enough.

One storyline to monitor on the bubble this year is the number of head-to-head comparisons the committee will be able to make and how strongly they consider those in deciding some of these final few spots. If they do value head-to-head strongly, it could be good news for New Mexico, which has wins over Santa Clara, VCU and a split season series with San Diego State (with the possibility of a third meeting in the Mountain West tournament). VCU has a head-to-head win over Virginia Tech, and there are a handful of other head-to-head scenarios that could come into play as well if teams get closer together on the seed list.

* — indicates projected automatic qualifier

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman*/UMBC*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 UCF
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Gonzaga* vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 TCU
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Navy*

Road wins are worth their weight in gold at this time of year, and Michigan State sweeping Purdue and Indiana away from home solidified the Spartans’ standing as a No. 2 seed. A No. 1 seed likely isn’t feasible, though winning at Michigan this weekend could at least make that a conversation. Either way, a No. 2 seed for the second straight year for Tom Izzo and the Spartans would be a heck of a campaign.

Iowa is likely safe to dance no matter what happens down the stretch, but the Hawkeyes did seriously cap their seed ceiling with ugly losses to Maryland and Penn State in February. Assuming two losses this week against Michigan and Nebraska, the No. 8 vs. 9 game may be the Hawkeyes’ realistic ceiling.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Tennessee State*/LIU*
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 High Point*
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Texas A&M/New Mexico
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Troy*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Ohio State
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Merrimack*

Alabama continues to surge, winning at Tennessee on Saturday for an eighth straight win. The Tide now have four Quad 1A wins and rank in the top 10 nationally with eight Quad 1 victories. Nate Oats’s team looks well positioned for a top-four seed for a fourth consecutive season, a remarkable run for a program that had made the tournament just once in 10 years prior to his arrival.

Looking for a funky storyline during the first weekend of conference tournaments? Look no further than the NEC, where LIU is the projected automatic qualifier. Two of the eight teams in the NEC tournament (Mercyhurst and Le Moyne) are not yet eligible for the NCAA tournament as they work through the reclassification process into Division I. If the NEC title game features those two teams, the NEC will also stage a separate “AQ Qualifier” game between the other semifinalists. So while narrow, there is a path for LIU to dance even if the Sharks stumble this week.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 Portland State*
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Missouri
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 St. John’s vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Hawai’i*
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Texas
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Wright State*

After losing JT Toppin for the season with a knee injury, many thought Texas Tech would fall off a cliff down the stretch. Instead, the Red Raiders took care of business against Kansas State and Cincinnati before notching a monster road win at Iowa State. What’s particularly critical about the Iowa Staet win is that it ensures the committee not think less of the Red Raiders’ earlier big wins with Toppin on the floor, like wins over Duke, Arizona and Houston. Our projection has Tech on the No. 3 line, with a projected seed clearly in the cards save for a late-season collapse.

The team that seems likely to cause the committee the most headaches in the leadup to Selection Sunday is BYU. There are so many complicating factors to consider when figuring out where to send the Cougars. BYU has struggled since losing Richie Saunders for the season, getting blown out by UCF last week and handled by West Virginia. If that slump to the finish continues, the committee could knock the Cougars down further knowing what they look like without one of their stars. And as they move further down the seed list, figuring out where to send the Cougars becomes even harder. BYU has to play in the West or South Region to avoid playing on Sundays, but also get sent to a site for first- and second-round games that doesn’t play on Sunday. That gets harder than you’d think when you consider that Florida (our No. 2 in the South) is projected to go to Tampa, while Illinois (No. 2 in the West) would likely prefer St. Louis. In this mock-up, we send the Illini (and therefore BYU) to a Thursday/Saturday site in Oklahoma City, but there is lots of uncertainty here.

South Region

No. 1 UConn* vs. No. 16 Howard*
No. 8 Saint Louis* vs. No. 9 NC State
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Belmont*
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Santa Clara/VCU
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State*
No. 7 Utah State* vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Florida* vs. No. 15 Central Arkansas*

What should we make of Purdue’s latest slump? The Boilers lost twice last week to Michigan State and Ohio State to drop to just 5–6 in their last 11 games. That knocked Purdue down to the No. 4 line in our projection, though the margins are tight there and they could easily climb back to a No. 2 or No. 3 by Selection Sunday. The bigger issue is getting Purdue playing better basketball with the tournament fast approaching: Their current form could easily portend an early exit.

Louisville has a rather wide gap between its predictive and résumé metrics, in large part due to an 0–8 mark in Quad 1A games. Predictive metrics are a big part of seeding, so it’s hard to have Louisville any lower than a No. 6 given their perceived strength. But given the Cardinals’ struggles against good competition, it’s becoming harder and harder to imagine them making a real run in the Dance.