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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Kevin Sweeney

Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Big Ten Is Epicenter of Bubble Discussion

SI Big Ten Duke Basketball Michigan (Organization) SC (Geopolitical Entity) Mountain West Houston (Organization) UCLA Caleb Wilson

Remarkably, we’ve reached our final Bracket Watch update of February, a telltale sign of the Big Dance being nearly upon us. The time to fix glaring résumé problems is waning, with most teams down to their last few regular-season games before conference tournaments, which begin early next week in some mid-major leagues. What’s the latest projected field of 68 look like? Here’s Sports Illustrated’s latest look.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10 | Feb. 17

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

UCLA
Auburn
UCF
Indiana

Last Four In

Santa Clara
Missouri
TCU
Ohio State

First Four Out

New Mexico
USC
San Diego State
VCU

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
Cal
Seton Hall
Cincinnati

The epicenter of our bubble conversations down the stretch is in the Big Ten, with four teams around the cut line entering the final week of February action. Things have gotten dicey in a hurry for Indiana, which is just 4–10 against the top two quads. Its January win over Purdue can only take the Hoosiers so far. UCLA is feeling better about itself after a win over Illinois; two more wins down the stretch to get to 12–8 in Big Ten play should avoid much of a sweat on Selection Sunday. The most intriguing team in bubble discussions may be Ohio State, which has a solid profile marred by an 0–9 mark in Quad 1 games. But with the committee heavily valuing Wins Above Bubble, the Buckeyes could sneak in anyway (see last season’s North Carolina inclusion as evidence that Q1 record isn’t everything). And while USC is far from dead yet, losing at home to Oregon over the weekend was a big blow.

Also worth monitoring is the Mountain West’s tournament hopes. The league has gotten four or more bids in each of the last four years, but only one team (Utah State) is in today’s projection with New Mexico and San Diego State just on the outside looking in. For a league with three top-50 and six top-75 teams in the NET to get just one bid would be borderline malpractice, but the only way to ensure a second bid may be for someone other than Utah State to win the Mountain West tournament.

* — indicates projected automatic qualifier

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 UMBC*/Bethune-Cookman*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Florida* vs. No. 14 Austin Peay*
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Wright State*

Duke’s win over Michigan leapfrogs the Blue Devils up to the overall No. 1 slot in the seed list over the Wolverines. The implications of that are limited outside of preferential early-round site locations, though Duke would likely enjoy a favorable path to Indianapolis through Greenville, S.C., and Washington, D.C. The Blue Devils have a tough ACC schedule down the stretch with a chance to stack more needle-moving wins.

The top-two seed lines are strong, but Florida is making a serious push to climb up there. The Gators have lost just once in their last 13 games and have surged into KenPom’s top five nationally. A strong finish with three Quad 1 games in their final four in SEC play should position them to climb, and the Gators should be rewarded for playing a monster nonconference schedule that features three of our four projected No. 1 seeds.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 LIU*/SEMO*
No. 8 SMU vs. No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 High Point*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 3 Gonzaga* vs. No. 14 Portland State*
No. 7 Saint Louis* vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Navy*

It’s hard to fault Houston for its three straight losses: At Iowa State, home Arizona and at Kansas is a preposterously difficult gauntlet. But given committee chair Keith Gill specifically pointed out Houston’s lack of quality wins, swinging and missing in this three-game stretch may well have erased the Cougars’ hopes of a No. 1 seed.

Fears that North Carolina would fall apart without star freshman Caleb Wilson have been quieted after the Heels won at Syracuse on Saturday and followed that up with an impressive victory over Louisville on Monday. Ideally, Wilson can return as soon as the final regular-season game against Duke, which would give him a chance to get his legs under him before the Heels’ NCAA tournament run.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 Howard*
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Texas
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Belmont*
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Hawai’i*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Santa Clara/TCU
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Auburn
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Appalachian State*

Illinois lost for a third time in five games Saturday, this time on the road at UCLA. That collection of losses likely distances the Illini from serious No. 1 seed contention, though they get a golden opportunity at home against Michigan on Friday to bounce back. Win that one and take care of business against Oregon and Maryland, and a top-two seed is all but guaranteed.

At-large bids are extremely hard to come by for non-power schools these days, but Belmont has built a quiet case for selection at 25–4. Win its final two games in Missouri Valley Conference play (including a road Quad 2 game vs. Illinois State) and make a run to the MVC tournament final, and this would be a team with 28 Division I wins and likely 6–7 Quad 2 victories. That’d be enough to warrant serious consideration, although it’d be a long weeklong wait until Selection Sunday as other teams add data points to their résumé.

South Region

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Merrimack*
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 Clemson
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Ohio State/Missouri
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State*
No. 7 NC State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Utah Tech*

UConn falling to only No. 5 in the overall seed list in Saturday’s reveal was a good sign for the Huskies, and UConn added to its résumé later that day with a Quad 1 road win at Villanova. Wednesday vs. St. John’s looms large, but win that one and the Huskies seem well-positioned for a No. 1 seed especially as Iowa State, Houston and several of the other top contenders beat each other up down the stretch with tougher schedules.

Losers of four straight, Clemson’s NCAA tournament path is no longer a lock. The Tigers’ résumé is fairly soft on closer look, without a top-end win and a pair of not-great losses to Florida State and Georgetown. Brad Brownell’s team also has two very difficult games coming up against Louisville and North Carolina in its next two. Losing six straight could have them sweating entering the final week before Selection Sunday.