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Julio Borquez, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan-Dearborn

Meet the ‘independent voters’ who will likely decide which party triumphs in the 2026 midterm elections

Independent voter turnout in midterm elections usually lags behind that of Republicans and Democrats. adamkaz/Getty Images

As midterm elections near, Democrats enjoy advantages in national “generic ballot” polling, suggesting they may secure majorities in the House of Representative or Senate, if not both chambers.

But the reality is that partisan control on Capitol Hill will be determined by just a handful of competitive House and Senate contests. The Cook Political Report currently classifies only 22 House campaigns and only seven Senate campaigns as toss-ups, where either the Democrat or the Republican has a genuine chance of winning.

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