WASHINGTON — The anarchy that overran the U.S. Capitol this week obscured another seismic event that shifted Washington power: For the first time in six years, Mitch McConnell will no longer run the U.S. Senate.
At the same time, with Donald Trump on his way out as a defeated former president, McConnell will essentially be elevated to the most important Republican in the nation’s capital.
The Kentuckian’s formal loss of congressional power at the same time he gains influence within his party is a paradox that will help define the next two years of governing and the initial direction of the GOP as it navigates a fractious new environment.
“He can still be very effective. His goal is really going to be to obstruct and gridlock the Senate. He has no interest in furthering President Biden’s agenda. He has a lot of power,” said Julian Zelizer, a Princeton University professor of political history who has authored numerous books on congressional power. “He’s very effective in keeping Republicans on board for what he wants, even when he’s taking tons of flak.”
McConnell did not face a challenge in his bid to lead the Republican minority, a testament to his durable grip on Senate Republicans. And with Trump still holding a large microphone but without any formal power, he may have more room to maneuver politically than when he had to constantly calculate the consequences of angering the volatile and unpredictable leader of his own party.
When the second Georgia Senate runoff race was called for Democrat Jon Ossoff on Wednesday afternoon, McConnell was holed up in an undisclosed location, his attention more immediately focused on the safety of his colleagues and staff and his ability to resume proceedings to certify President-elect Joe Biden’s victory.
But even before Tuesday’s razor-close elections and Wednesday’s shocking bout of rioting, McConnell was clear-eyed about his prospects of being returned to the minority, according to a person familiar with his thinking. A 50-50 Senate with an incoming Biden administration means Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will cast tie-breaking votes, handing Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York control.
McConnell has not yet addressed his new role, but there’s historic precedent to inform the posture he’s likely to take. He was in a similar position in 2009, when it was President Barack Obama beginning a new administration and Democrats boasting majorities in both the House and Senate.
It was during the first term of the Obama administration that McConnell solidified himself as a disciplined and shrewd opposition leader, who sometimes prevented members of his caucus from even holding conversations with the White House. He relished his “Darth Vader” persona and preferred scorched-earth hardball politics over the media and political adulation sought by many senators.
In his memoir, Obama recalls a story that Biden told him about McConnell’s steely blockage of a bill the former Delaware senator had sponsored.
“When Joe tried to explain the bill’s merits, McConnell raised his hand like a traffic cop and said, ‘You must be under the mistaken impression that I care,’” Obama wrote.
While McConnell’s relationship with Obama was icy, it was also the period when he fostered a relationship with Biden, who was tasked with negotiating the administration’s legislative goals.
“They worked together when Biden was vice president. They did budget deals and other things. That relationship will be better,” said Drew Willison, a former chief of staff to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. “Joe Biden’s no fool. He knows Mitch McConnell’s job is to make him a one-term president. But these are two old-school guys and I think they’ll get along pretty well with a more open dialogue.”
Reverting McConnell to the minority will make it easier for Biden to shepherd through his Cabinet selections and judicial nominees, but his larger legislative agenda will still need Republican support to have any chance of success.
Biden and Schumer have already pledged that delivering $2,000 checks to Americans will be their top priority — a proposal that McConnell effectively blocked earlier this month, defying Trump’s pleas to pass the extra cash. McConnell called it “borrowed money” that would end up in the hands of “Democrats’ rich friends,” but the president saw it as a vehicle to aid the Republican ticket in Georgia.
“We don’t want to give $2,000 to people, we want to give them $600. Oh great. How does that play politically?” Trump mocked in his remarks to his supporters in Washington on Wednesday.
Biden’s other policy prescriptions — like implementing his $700 billion “Build Back Better” plan, climate change legislation and reforms to remedy racial inequalities — will face a steeper climb, not only with Republicans but a small but significant cadre of moderate Democrats.
Complete Democratic control of Washington will mean some Republicans will be incentivized to take risks, especially with several senators already eyeing the 2024 presidential election and their best ticket to the nomination.
“He’s got a lot of members who still have a lot of fealty to the president,” said Willison. “He’s got fractious young members, they’re less inclined to get in line.”
