Only 28% of Max users have been signed up for the Warner Bros. Discovery streaming service for at least six months, according to Antenna.
In its latest report, the research company (methodology explained here) also described Apple TV Plus (32% enlisted for under six months), along with Hulu and Peacock (35%) as having user bases that are similarly "uncommitted."
So where is Antenna going with this?
Service bundling is top-of-mind right now, with Disney and WBD partnering to combine Disney Plus, Hulu and Max, and Comcast/NBCU launching on Wednesday a discounted package that includes Netflix, Peacock and Apple TV Plus.
By Antenna's reasoning, services with users who churn in and out frequently, often based on what programming is currently available, benefit by hooking their wagons to other subscription platforms.
Conversely, for Netflix, "two out of every three individuals who have ever subscribed to the service are currently subscribed with a tenure over six months. Bundles represent more cannibalization risk, with less upside potential," Antenna explains in its Unpacking Streaming Bundles report.
But it goes deeper.
Antenna says good bundling candidates have a lot of "curious" customers. This bucket includes not only subscribers who have been with the service six months or less, but also those who have cancelled the service in the past.
Meanwhile, Antenna also describes good bundling mates as services who don't have a lot of overlapping subscribers. Based on the graphic below, for example, Apple TV Plus might choose not to bundle with Max because its customers are already 2.53 times likely vs. the general population to also have Max, anyway.
"It could be interpreted from a high rate of overlap that particular services are strong candidates to be bundled together because consumers have shown interest in each," Antenna says in its report. "But, while high overlap indicates an affinity between the two services, it also could indicate that a discounted bundled offering might be cannibalistic because many consumers already are willing to pay full price to each service."
