With five days and three games remaining in the regular season, the Mavericks are in line to face one of three teams in a first-round playoff series: the Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets or Minnesota Timberwolves.
There are still a few benchmarks to hit before then.
They’re one win from the franchise’s first 50-victory season since 2015 and two from clinching first-round home-court advantage at No. 4. One more win than the Golden State Warriors over the last week will boost fourth-place Dallas to the No. 3 seed and out of championship-favorite Phoenix’s side of the Western Conference bracket.
But with NBA play paused Monday for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament championship, now is an ideal time to look ahead and evaluate the pros and cons of potential first-round matchups.
Here’s our analysis.
Denver Nuggets
Record: 47-32
Current seed: 5th
Pros: The Mavericks have maintained an edge against Denver in recent years: 2-1 head-to-head record this season and 6-3 over the last three playoff-bound seasons. The one loss to the Nuggets this year came in late October on the second night of Dallas’ first back to back of the season. Much about Doncic’s form and the Mavericks’ identity has changed since — and they won’t face any back to backs in the postseason.
With Jason Kidd’s emphasis on defense, the Mavericks have shown the ability to slow reigning MVP Nikola Jokic — to any degree possible. Jokic’s scoring (24.3 points) and assists (5.4) averages across three games against Dallas are his third- and fourth-lowest marks against any Western Conference team this season.
The long-term injury absences of co-stars Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. has left Jokic to play as the Nuggets’ solo feature — just like his “Balkan brother” Doncic.
Cons: There’s a reason Jokic is the betting favorite to win his second consecutive MVP award this season. Almost all of his statistical categories rank higher than his historic 2020-21 season, and his 26.8-point, 13.7-rebound, 8.0-assist and 58.3% shooting averages have kept Denver in the top-6 seed mix despite significant injuries.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, haven’t ruled out the possibility of Murray and Porter to return in the postseason, a wrinkle the Mavericks would have little opportunity to scout. Dallas has endured limited frontcourt depth since the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and Jokic’s prowess on the boards could prove to be a major source of frustration for a Mavericks team ranked fourth-to-last in average rebounds per game (42.9).
Utah Jazz
Record: 46-32
Current seed: 6th
Pros: Regardless of results in the last week, the Jazz won’t enter the playoffs with a positive finish. They’ve lost six of the last seven games — the only victory at home over the reeling, LeBron James-less Lakers — and have often followed defeats with disgruntled comments and signs of internal discombobulation.
While the Mavericks will face their loftiest Luka Doncic-led playoff expectations yet, Utah will likely feel even more pressure as many around the league wonder whether the franchise will embark on a roster overhaul and rebuilding period this offseason if a long playoff run doesn’t materialize.
Luka Doncic won’t hesitate to help pull the plug if he can capitalize on mismatches and get the best of center Rudy Gobert — as a defender and trash talker.
Cons: The Jazz feature two multi-time All-Stars — Gobert and guard Donovan Mitchell — and a roster that has more playoff experience than the Mavericks’ core. By holding Mitchell to a combined 29 points on 9 of 32 shooting (28.1%) in the last two meetings, Dallas’ defense has shown it can contain him, but the best way to disrupt Gobert’s impact is to play five shooters on offense and pull him away from the rim.
If the Mavericks’ small-ball centers, Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans, can’t hit shots — as has been spotty since the All-Star break — the offense may not create enough space and production to support Doncic.
Plus, Dallas has lost 11 consecutive games since April 2016 in Utah. Even if the team earns home-court advantage, it wouldn’t have much of a cushion for series swings in the raucous Vivint Arena.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 45-34
Current seed: 7th
Pros: This matchup appears to be the longest shot for the Mavericks as they’d likely have to overtake Golden State with one more win down the stretch to reach No. 3 while the Timberwolves would have to make up at least two games on either Denver or Utah to escape the play-in tournament at No. 7.
But if all of the above does play out, the Mavericks would enter the one series in which they’d have more recent playoff experience than their opponent. Minnesota has reached the postseason just once in the last 17 seasons — a five-game, first-round loss to Houston in star big man Karl-Anthony Towns’ third season — and the Mavericks likely wouldn’t mind the opportunity to fluster him again and send a reminder that Dirk Nowitzki remains the greatest shooting big man in NBA history.
Cons: The Timberwolves have given the Mavericks trouble this season, especially in two losses on the road. While they’ve split four meetings this season, Minnesota has outscored Dallas by a combined 13 points (437-424) head-to-head. There’s no love lost between Doncic and pesky defender Patrick Beverley, either. Doncic capitalized in their one-on-one matchups last postseason — starting four minutes into Game 1 when he told Beverley, then with the Clippers, that he was “too [expletive] small” — but Beverley’s squad ended each of the Mavericks’ last two seasons.
