In the U.S. Senate, the short-term consequences of Kyrsten Sinema’s showy decision to leave the Democratic Party are much smaller than they might first appear. The real repercussions won’t be felt for two years — in her state and in her former party.
The Arizona senator says she won’t caucus with Republicans, meaning she will operate as a de facto member of the Democrats’ 51-seat majority and ensuring the party has firm control over committees. In terms of her actual voting, formally leaving the party is a sign that her vote can’t be taken for granted. But the party has never been able to take her vote for granted. And with the Republicans taking over the House, her status as a somewhat independent-minded senator matters much less anyway. Anything that happens in the next Congress will need to happen with Republican Party support, and Sinema is likely to want to be in the mix on bipartisan dealmaking rather than left out in the cold.
It’s actually the modest practical difference to her political situation — she is up for re-election in 2024 — that makes this a clever power move for Sinema.
