When Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans recently in broad averages on the generic ballot, I didn’t believe it. We’ve seen many large polling errors in Democrats’ favor in recent years, a 50-50 House vote would defy the historical trend toward the incumbent president’s party facing backlash in the midterms, and Joe Biden’s low approval ratings seem inconsistent with Democrats doing well.
But a couple of events on Aug. 9 have made me a believer.
First was a special election for a House seat in Minnesota. Democrats didn’t win. But, in losing, their candidate ran about 3 percentage points ahead of Joe Biden’s 2020 margin in the district and about even with Democrats’ 2020 candidate for the seat. Those numbers are similar to the results we saw in the June 28 special election for Nebraska’s first congressional district. Again, the Republican won. But he won with numbers that were somewhat weaker than Trump’s in 2020 and about flat with House Republicans’ performance.
