Matthew Stafford is tied with Dak Prescott for the eighth-highest salary of any quarterback in the NFL at $40 million. He signed his current contract after the 2021 season, which ended in a Super Bowl win, but the value of that deal has come into question after he missed eight games and finished with just 10 touchdown passes.
ESPN used analytics to break down the biggest bargains at quarterback and which ones delivered the most value in 2022, but Stafford didn’t rank very highly on the list. He was slotted in with the “Established Starters Not On Rookie Deals” group, which is essentially a collection of quarterbacks who have already gotten a second contract and were starters this season.
Among the 15 players in that group, Stafford came in at No. 13. His expected total production was 104.0, partly based on his compensation; players paid more are expected to produce more. However, his total production came in 76.61 points below expected, third-worst among the 15 quarterbacks in his group.
Of course, Stafford missed half the season and was playing behind the worst offensive line in football, so that has to be taken into account. He was in a terrible situation this season, getting very little help from his blockers up front or his receivers on the outside – with the exception of Cooper Kupp.
If Stafford can stay healthy next season, he should be able to return to the form he showed in 2021 when he threw 41 touchdown passes and averaged 287.4 yards per game. Even with a $40 million salary, those sort of numbers will surely make him a much better value than he was in 2021.
