If you were to look at Matthew Stafford’s primary stats this season, you’d think he’s having a bad year. He’s only completed 62% of his passes, and he has just three touchdown passes to five interceptions, which puts him on pace for about 13 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. Those would be massively disappointing numbers for the Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
However, box-score scouting Stafford this season is a fool’s errand. It’s impossible to fully understand how well he’s playing just based on his baseline numbers because if you’ve watch him play, you know Stafford is performing at a very high level for the Rams in 2023.
Buy Rams TicketsJust look at these throws from Sunday’s win over the Colts. There are few quarterbacks in the league that would even attempt these passes, let alone complete them to move the chains – the second of which came on fourth-and-3.
Stafford with some pinpoint accuracy. 😮💨
(h/t @Nate_Tice) pic.twitter.com/GjT1JK9ukW
— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2023
If you dig deeper into the advanced metrics like J.B. Long did, you’ll realize how good Stafford has been this year. For starts, his passing grade at Pro Football Focus is the fourth-best of any quarterback in the league, coming in at 79.6. That’s the fourth-best passing grade of his career, to put it into perspective.
He also has 12 big-time throws, according to PFF, which are passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” That’s the most in the NFL, three more than any other player, and his BTT rate (6.9%) is also the highest in the NFL.
And while he has five interceptions, one of them went through the hands of Kyren Williams and another was tipped at the line and intercepted by Bengals LB Logan Wilson after the deflection. Pro Football Focus has pinned Stafford with only four turnover-worthy plays, which only ranks as the 17th-most in the NFL. His turnover-worthy play percentage of 2.1% is the sixth-lowest of any quarterback.
Stafford is throwing down the field more aggressively than most players, too. His average depth of target is 9.0, tied for the eighth-highest in football. So he’s not just checking it down and taking short completions, which is part of the reason his completion rate is lower than usual – along with his receivers’ eight drops.
That being said, Stafford is still completing some incredible throws. Just look at this one, which was a laser to Tutu Atwell against tight coverage.
Stafford firing this in against a CB trying to fall off to defend this exact route https://t.co/NUFOOOuVWh pic.twitter.com/yns1xv0XnH
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 17, 2023
And this throw against the Seahawks to Puka Nacua might be his best of the year so far. He dropped it into a tiny window along the sideline for a big first-down pickup, putting the ball where only Nacua could make a play.
Stafford with a beautiful throw on 3rd & 8 pic.twitter.com/5WdUmOAAn6
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) September 11, 2023
So when you really look at his more advanced numbers, you see a quarterback who’s being aggressive, making tight-window throws and avoiding turnover-worthy plays. His touchdown numbers are down because he’s only attempted 16 passes in the red zone (T-15th in the NFL) and only seven inside the 10-yard line (T-14th), which is partly the result of the Rams leaning on Williams and the running game near the goal line.
Eventually, that will even itself out and he’ll start throwing more touchdown passes, which will cause more casual fans to take notice of his play because his touchdown-to-interception ratio will improve.
Stafford is by no means having a down year despite only having three touchdowns and five picks. Don’t judge his play by those two misleading stats because he’s playing significantly better than those suggest.
