The outgoing treasurer and leading party moderate, Matt Kean, has ruled out contesting the New South Wales Liberal leadership, amid speculation he is considering a federal move.
Kean’s announcement on Sunday evening leaves Alister Henskens, the sports minister and member for the blue ribbon seat of Wahroonga, as the current frontrunner for the leadership.
The search for a new NSW Liberal leader comes after the premier, Dominic Perrottet, announced on Saturday night that he was stepping down.
Kean said the election result would enable him to spend more time with his family and he would continue to work hard for his electorate.
“I have decided not to throw my hat in the ring for the NSW Liberal leadership,” he said in a statement.
“I have a young family and I would love to spend a little more time with them. The election result will enable me to do that.
“Tommy recently turned three and now is the time for me to hang out and be a dad, while also continuing to serve my wonderful Hornsby constituents and the Liberal party, though not as leader and not as part of the leadership team.”
In recent interviews, including on Saturday night, Kean has effusively praised federal opposition leader, Peter Dutton, fuelling speculation he might look to move to Canberra by running against Kylea Tink in the federal seat North Sydney or in the seat of Bradfield, if sitting Liberal member Paul Fletcher retires.
Figures close to Kean told Guardian Australia earlier this month that Kean had floated the idea and was exploring possible avenues into federal parliament.
The understated Henskens, a former barrister, is regarded as bright and capable and has the respect of MPs from all factions.
Appearing on Sky News on Sunday morning, Henskens did not rule out a run, saying that the current focus was on scrutineering and getting more Liberals over the line.
“That will happen in the party room behind closed doors in the appropriate way,” he said of the leadership.
“What we need is a proper analysis of what we could have done better. And I just don’t think that we have the hard data to be able to make judgments like that.”
Henskens said the Liberals needed to be a party that can "appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, because that’s what’s necessary in order to form government”.
Stuart Ayres, who lost his ultra-marginal seat of Penrith, was once considered a possible contender but is now no longer in the mix.
Attorney general Mark Speakman could also emerge as a leadership contender, although it is unlikely he has enough support.
There are currently no likely female candidates for the leadership.
The roads minister, Natalie Ward, who has been spoken about as a future leader, failed to get preselection for the safe seat of Davidson, and remains in the upper house. She is a potential deputy.
Meanwhile, the informal postmortem of the result within the Liberal party has already begun. A review committee will be appointed next month when the state executive meets.
But factors being mentioned include the fact that it was a 12-year-old government, the cost-of-living pressures faced by voters, a swathe of retirements, the internal factional brawling within the Liberal party and some of the candidate choices.
“Apart from obviously asking for an unprecedented 16 years, the retirement of hardworking local members made a considerable difference. As opposed to the overall primary, in the seats where our MPs retired there was an average swing of about 12%,” one Liberal said.
“I don’t think we need to worry about whether we moved too far to the left or the right, like we did after the federal election,” said another Liberal powerbroker.
“I don’t think we lost because of the premier or Matt Kean. It was longevity. And the missteps. They just finally add up in voters’ minds.”
Other senior Liberals cited the economic headwinds hurting the electorate as the main drivers of the losses in western Sydney.
“Voters don’t necessarily reward you for what you have done,” one said, pointing to the metros and motorways constructed over the past 12 years.
Liberals noted Labor ran a very disciplined campaign focused on tolls, cost of living and privatisation.
“The most important aspect of winning elections is to play as a team and teamwork was seen as somewhat absent,” said Liberal elder statesman Philip Ruddock who, as the former president of the NSW division, found himself at the centre of protracted factional warring over federal preselections last year.
Some of those tensions continued into state preselections. Sitting MP Melanie Gibbons lost preselection for Holsworthy in November and Ward failed to get pre-selected in Davidson.
The candidate for Parramatta, Katie Mullens, was not selected until 20 January. She lost to Labor’s candidate, the well known lord mayor Donna Davis, who achieved a 15.2% swing in the previously Liberal seat.
The choice of several male candidates over women has also raised the question about branch plebiscites, introduced as a result of the Warringah motion, championed by former prime minister Tony Abbott.
The new rules give the branch members, who are often older and more conservative than the electorate, a much bigger say in the candidate.
The loss of the seats of South Coast, East Hills, Parramatta and possibly Drummoyne and Holsworthy where women were selected will further add to the party’s woes over diversity.
Some Liberals were celebrating the failure of the teal candidates backed by Climate 200 to win seats on the north shore of Sydney. Kean had led the operation to sandbag the seats and on Saturday night praised Liberal Felicity Wilson, who held North Shore against independent Helen Conway.
But other Liberals were more sanguine, saying MPs had been saved by optional preferential voting in the face of very large swings. They said there were lessons about not taking communities for granted and that they applied to both federal and state MPs in safe seats.
Some party figures argued the issue of climate change had been blunted as a result of Kean’s policy push towards renewables and this had helped too.
There were lessons for the Nationals as well. The seat of Monaro, formerly held by the controversial former Nationals leader John Barilaro, fell to Labor. There were also solid swings to independents in regional seats.
The Nationals failed in their mission to reclaim Port Macquarie, with the seat remaining with Leslie Williams, who defected to the Liberals over environmental issues.
