Success in limiting global warming will spare Australia a sharp fall in economic activity but would see coal exports fall to a trickle by 2063 under a low-emissions scenario, according to the government’s intergenerational report.
The report, to be released in full on Thursday, will provide much greater detail on the range of impacts and their scale in a warming world than the five previous intergenerational reports.
Should temperature increases exceed 2C above pre-industrial times – the upper limit of the Paris climate accord – Australia would face “significant real, tangible and direct impacts” across a range of sectors.
Productivity will fall because of the hotter conditions, sapping the economy of between $135bn and $423bn in today’s dollars, the report said, according to an extract released by the treasurer, Jim Chalmers. Should temperature increases reach 3C, the cost to GDP could rise a further $155bn, with 16-41m additional hours of work lost.
“In the absence of adaptation measures Australian crop yields could be up to 4% lower by 2063 in a scenario where global mitigation does not keep temperature increases below 3C this century,” it said, adding yield reductions could be largely avoided if temperatures rises were kept below 2C.
Tourism, too, would suffer in a warming world, with at least 50% of the nation’s sandy coastline at peril because of rising sea levels.
In addition, “many of Australia’s top attractions are also in regions likely to be increasingly susceptible to natural disasters, risking travel disruption and reputational harm,” it said, noting that the 2019-20 black summer bushfires triggered cancelations or postponements of 80,000 tourism activities.
“We take our responsibility to address climate change very seriously,” Chalmers said. “In little over a year, Australia has gone from a global embarrassment to a global leader in how we’re responding to the threat of global warming.”
The first IGR, released by then treasurer Peter Costello two decades ago, made just two references to climate change. Subsequent reports have increased their attention to the impacts of a warming world, but made little effort to model them.
The 2021 IGR, presented by Chalmers’ predecessor, Josh Frydenberg, noted that three nations that had committed to net zero emissions – Japan, South Korea and China – accounted for 87% of Australia’s LNG export value, 74% of Australia’s thermal coal export value and 55% of Australia’s metallurgical coal export value.
This report – the sixth IGR – said a 2C temperature limit scenario would see thermal coal exports halve from current volumes by 2063. Should warming be kept to 1.5C, the lower end of the Paris accord, such exports of the fossil fuel burnt in power stations would be just 1% of present levels.
Against that reduction, global demand for lithium, a mineral used in battery production, would be expected to expand eightfold from current levels in a 1.5C scenario.
Australia’s temperatures have already warmed by about 1.47C since 1910, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
Should the world remain on track for a 3C warming level since 1850 by 2100, Australia’s average temperatures are projected to rise 1.7C over the coming 40 years, the IGR said. However, the increase will not be uniform, with central and northern Western Australia projected to warm 1.8C while Tasmania’s increase will be 1.3C.
“Some regional and remote communities, including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, are expected to be particularly exposed to higher temperatures,” it said. “This highlights the need for effective mitigation of further temperature increases and targeted investment in adaptation.”
Much of the impacts of global heating will come from extreme events rather than average adjustments.
“Increased frequency and severity of natural disasters could increase the commonwealth government’s disaster recovery funding arrangements expenditure between 3 to 3.6 times by 2063,” it said.
The report noted that while there was “significant uncertainty around these estimates, findings from global climate and agricultural models suggest other countries in our region may be even more affected than Australia”.
“This could result in heightened demand for Australian agricultural exports over time, assuming the sector is able to position itself – for example, through adjusting the types of crops grown in certain regions – to increase production,” it said.
“We know the world’s climate emergency is not only a moral imperative but regional Australia’s jobs opportunity,” the climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, said. “That’s why we are committed to become a renewable energy superpower to provide cleaner, cheaper energy to Australians and the world.”
