Martin Lewis has explained whether he thinks households should fix onto an energy tariff now ahead of the price cap being revised next month.
The MoneySavingExpert founder addressed the latest updates of the energy crisis in a new video posted online as families face a further hike in bills.
The energy price cap is due to be updated on February 7, with energy bills predicted to rise by 50% to an average of £2,000 a year from April.
The price cap sets a limit on the rates a supplier can charge for each unit of gas and electricity you use.
It is reviewed twice a year and the cap is currently set at £1,277 for those on a standard variable tariff after last being revised in October 2021.
In his latest video ahead of the update, Martin said his best advice was for households not to fix into an energy deal unless they can find a tariff that is no more than 50% over the price cap.
But the MoneySavingExpert founder says his predictions are based on "lots of assumptions" on how the energy market could play out - including a possible 20% jump in energy bills again this October.
Of course, the energy situation is fast changing and there are calls for the government to intervene to help struggling families - although nothing has been announced yet.
Martin said: "So, what's my best guess at right now? Having done the numbers, depending on what you assume happens in October and that's the really difficult bit, I wouldn't be looking at fixing now unless I can get a fix that was no more than 40%-ish above the price cap.
"That's what I'd say. Think of that as a rough number – 40% above the price cap if you want price certainty."
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He added: "Now I may be persuadable, if someone said to me: 'I really want price certainty and I've got something that's 50% above', well, if we do see a rise in October that may well be a winner in hindsight.
"So, I certainly might stretch to the 50% mark, but I certainly wouldn't stretch to the 70% mark."
Martin went on to explain how the energy situation "drives me sick and worries me" and says he can't give definite right answers.
He added: "We'll do our best, but we can't promise to get it right, but we're going to continue to crunch the numbers for you and give you the best risk-averse answer.
"Right now, do nothing unless you can get a fix no more than 50% over the price cap."
The MoneySavingExpert founder has been telling households to "do nothing" throughout the energy crisis, and roll onto the price cap instead of fixing into a deal.
This is because there has been no significantly cheap open market deals available that beat the current price cap - which means even comparing prices hasn't been worth it in most circumstances.
Looking back at his advice, Martin said "most people were better off doing nothing" but "there are certainly some edge cases where you would have been better" to have locked into a deal.
This is based on people who "absolutely timed it right" taking out a new deal as it takes around 17 days to switch energy provider, according to Martin.
He says the optimum day for some people to have locked into a deal would've been around November 3.
Martin explained: "These are edge cases and the savings from that I wouldn't have thought would be very substantial, maybe £10 to £50 a year on typical usage. But again, only if you absolutely timed this right.
"There may have been some existing-customer fixes that were even cheaper – I'm looking at the open market rates – but certainly the savings from fixing, even for the few who would gain from it, would not be that big."
