Markets Are 95% Sure Of A Rate Cut — But This Italian Bank Says The Fed Will Hold

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An Italian investment bank is breaking with an almost unanimous Wall Street consensus ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, predicting policymakers will hold rates steady despite markets treating another cut as nearly guaranteed.

Futures markets are pricing in a roughly 88% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Dec. 10 meeting, according to CME Fed Watch tool. On betting platform Polymarket, expectations are even stronger, with bettors assigning a 95% probability to a Fed rate cut.