The stock market rally continued to ascend in a holiday-shortened week, with the major indexes now moving toward 2023 highs. The big-cap Nasdaq 100 has already done so. Nvidia reported blowout earnings and guidance yet again, but shares pulled back. Sam Altman returned to Microsoft-backed OpenAI less than a week after the board ousted him. Abercrombie & Fitch fell after its hot results, but came well off lows, unlike American Eagle and Urban Outfitters. But a number of retailers gave weak or cautious forecasts for the holiday quarter. Tesla was up and down on a variety of news.
Market Rally Nears 2023 Highs
The major indexes cleared further resistance levels, with summer's 2023 highs the next hurdle. The big-cap Nasdaq 100 is right at that level. Leading stocks continued to act well, though many are extended. Nvidia fell after its huge earnings, but remains in a buy range. Treasury yields rebounded for a modest gain after hitting two-month lows. Crude oil fell on speculation that OPEC+ won't cut production soon.
More Signs Fed Hikes Are Done
Minutes of the Federal Reserve policy committee's Oct. 3-Nov. 1 meeting seemed to confirm that rate hikes are done. The minutes specified one criteria that would merit further tightening: if progress toward 2% inflation is insufficient. Yet progress was more than sufficient in October, when the consumer price index was flat and core price, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.1%. Wall Street's focus is how far the Fed will cut rates in 2024. Though the minutes indicated unanimity that policy should "remain at a restrictive stance for some time," markets are pricing in slightly better-than-even odds of a full point of rate cuts next year.
Still, economic data during the week came in mixed. Initial jobless claims surprisingly fell 24,000 to 209,000 in the week through Nov. 18. However, durable goods orders plunged 5.4% in October. The weakness reflected a reversal of September's strength in civilian aircraft orders and a hit to auto orders from the recent strike. The key data point in the report is nondefense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, which fell 0.1%, continuing the softening trend. Existing-home sales in October fell 4% to an annual rate of 3.79 million, a 13-year low. But the recent drop in mortgage rates should help.
Market Rally Looks Great, But Beware This
Nvidia Smashes Q3 Targets
Artificial intelligence chip leader Nvidia obliterated Wall Street's estimates for its fiscal third quarter thanks to massive growth in sales of AI processors for data centers. In its fiscal Q3 ended Oct. 29, Nvidia earned an adjusted $4.02 a share, up 593% year over year, on sales of $18.12 billion, up 206%. For the current quarter, Nvidia forecast sales of $20 billion, up 231% from the prior year. That topped official Street estimates for $17.96 billion, but failed to hit lofty "whisper numbers." Nvidia executives said recent U.S. trade restrictions with China will negatively impact its revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter ending in January. Later, Reuters reported that Nvidia is delaying the launch of an AI chip in China aimed at complying with U.S. rules. Shares pulled back from record highs toward a buy point.
OpenAI Turmoil Hits Microsoft
Chaos at artificial intelligence startup OpenAI shook up shares of investor-partner Microsoft. On Nov. 17, OpenAI's board ousted Chief Executive Sam Altman, citing a lack of confidence in his ability to lead. In response, OpenAI President Greg Brockman and numerous employees quit or threatened to quit. On Nov. 19, Microsoft announced a plan to hire Altman, Brockman and others to form a new AI research organization. Then five days after he was fired, OpenAI announced that Altman would return to run the firm under the direction of a new board of directors. Microsoft seesawed up during the commotion, but trended higher.
Youth Apparel Retailer Earnings
Young adult apparel retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters and Urban Outfitters headlined retail earnings this week. Abercrombie & Fitch reported another quarter of booming earnings well above views. Shares initially plunged on results, and fell slightly for the week from all-time highs. American Eagle just beat views, but AEO dived on a profit margin miss. Urban Outfitters topped, but URBN stock dived cautious comments about its namesake stores.
Deere Sees Big Sales Drop Ahead
The farm-equipment giant reported an 11% EPS gain in fiscal Q4 while revenue fell 1%, both beating views. But Deere warned of a double-digit sales drop in the new fiscal year, citing cyclical factors. The warning came after recent Fed meeting minutes showed high interest rates were likely weighing on purchases of heavy farm equipment. Deere stock fell near a six-month low.
Hot China Retailer Tumbles
China-based specialty retailer Miniso reported better-than-expected Q3 results, with EPS growing 42% to 27 cents and sales increasing 35% to $531 million. Miniso operates through the MINISO Brand and TOP TOY Brand segments and offers shoppers in design of lifestyle products and toys. It boasts over 5,500 locations, including more than 2,000 overseas, with a growing number in the U.S. Shares sold off after earnings.
Tesla News
Tesla shares were up and down during the week amid a variety of headlines. On Monday, Jefferies said that canceling the Cybertruck would "probably be positive for shares," though the analysts admitted that's unlikely to happen with the Cybertruck delivery event set for Nov. 30. Weekly China EV registrations came in strong, perhaps as updated Model 3 deliveries ramp up. Tesla also slightly raised the price on the Model Y Long Range variant, the fourth token increase in the past month. However, inventory discounts in the U.S. and Europe are ramping up again. Tesla may be near a deal to ship EVs to India and set up a plant there, Bloomberg reported. Elon Musk said he'll discuss with the board Tesla investing in his xAI startup.
News In Brief
Medtronic topped fiscal second-quarter expectations on Tuesday, with adjusted profit down 4% and sales up 5.3% to $7.98 billion on a strict, as-reported basis. Medtronic raised its full-year revenue outlook.
Trip.com reported a 348% EPS gain, easily beating, with revenue up 94% to $1.88 billion, slightly topping. But the Chinese travel site guided lower for Q4. Shares tumbled.
Dick's Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports shot up after beating views, with Dick's reporting higher sales.
Kohl's reported better-than-expected Q3 EPS, but sales missed and the department store guided lower.
Jacobs Solutions missed EPS views with a 6% gain. Revenue rose 11% to $4.29 billion, slightly topping. The heavy construction firm tumbled.
DLocal reported Q3 EPS rose 30% while revenue jumped 47%, both missing views. The Latin American fintech also reaffirmed full-year targets that are below consensus. DLO stock plunged.
Baidu reported an 18% EPS gain in Q3, with revenue up 3%, both showing slowing growth but beating views. The Chinese search giant said it'll continue to prioritize artificial intelligence efforts, stressing efficiency.
Best Buy beat Wall Street's earnings target for its fiscal third quarter ended Oct. 28 but sales were weaker than expected. The consumer electronics retailer also disappointed with its outlook for the holiday quarter. Best Buy's sales and earnings now have fallen for eight straight quarters on a year-over-year basis.
Symbotic, a maker of robotic technologies for automating warehouses, crushed estimates for its fiscal fourth quarter and guided analysts higher for the current period. It also posted its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis since it went public in June 2022. SYM stock rocketed over 40% on the news.
Zoom Video beat expectations for its fiscal third quarter, but offered mixed guidance for the current period. The videoconferencing specialist reported a 29% EPS gain, with sales up 3% to $1.14 billion. However, for Q4, it forecast a 7% drop in earnings with sales rising less than 1%.
Autodesk beat expectations for its fiscal third quarter with a 22% EPS gain and revenue up 10% to $1.41 billion. But the maker of software for computer-aided design and workflows provided a mixed outlook for the current period.
