ATLANTA — Baseball is the sport changed the most by analytics. To soften the blow of cold numbers, MLB has rewritten rules. Relievers must pitch to a minimum of three batters, meaning no more LOOGYS. (Left-handed one-out guys.) In the new season, defenses can’t station more than two infielders on either side of second base, meaning no more lopsided shifts. Oh, and we’ve stopped measuring hitters by batting average and pitchers by wins.
Analytics changed basketball, too. James Harden became James Harden by taking only two kinds of shots – the step-back 3 and a layup. Repeat after me: The least efficient shot is the long 2-pointer.
This isn’t to say data-crunchers have left football untouched. This Super Bowl offers a case study. The teams that finished first and second in points and yards are your AFC and NFC champs, though their methodology differs. The Chiefs led in passing. The Eagles were ninth in passing, fifth in rushing, which isn’t to say Philadelphia is more conventional.
Philly ranked fourth in fourth-down attempts, second in fourth-down conversions. From ESPN’s Bill Barnwell: “When both teams have a win expectancy of at least 20 percent, the Eagles have attempted to convert 33.9 percent of their fourth-down tries. … They’re going for it on a whopping 56.7 percent of fourth downs after crossing the 50.”
That’s analytics talking. Baseball has abandoned the sacrifice bunt because Bill James, working nights tending a boiler in Lawrence, Kan., determined the most important stat wasn’t the hit or the run but the out. A team gets only 27 per game. Why waste one trying to move a runner 90 feet? The football equivalent of the sabermetric set has long lobbied that fourth downs be used to attack, as opposed to retreat (meaning punt).
It took a while, but the message has been heard and accepted by actual coaches. When Georgia went for it on fourth down inside the opponent’s 5 a couple of years ago, this scribe mentioned to Kirby Smart that he’d have been surprised if he’d ordered a field goal instead. “Thank you,” Smart said. “You know who I’d have heard from if I didn’t go for it? Analytics people.”
In 1978, the first year the NFL played a 16-game regular season, the average team punted 87.8 times. In the 17-game season just completed, the average team punted 68.7 times. The Eagles punted 56 times, a number that wasn’t just a function of having a good offense; it also was a function of mindset.
Analytics make a powerful case for fortune favoring the brave. The numbers say teams should punt less, kick fewer field goals and go for two way more often. We locals remember the 2011 game that saw the Falcons of Mike Smith go for it on fourth-and-1 from his 29 against New Orleans in overtime. Michael Turner was halted. The Saints turned around and kicked the winning the field goal. Smith took the blame, which wasn’t to say he was wrong.
Had the Falcons punted, they would have ceded the ball to Drew Brees and Co., who led the NFL in total offense in 2011. (Led by 626 yards over the No. 2 Patriots, FYI.) In a subsequent playoff game against the Giants, the Falcons went for it twice on fourth-and-1, both times within field-goal range. Both times they failed. They lost 24-2. For all the criticism Smith drew back then, little of it was from numbers-crunchers.
Much of what we thought we knew about football has been rendered inoperative. We were told Defense Wins Championships, which was true in the time where offenses threw only on third down. It isn’t true now. Football Outsiders’ proprietary metric – DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) – values offense more than defense. Of the past five Super Bowls, three were won by teams that finished 17th or worse in total defense.
Not to sound simplistic, but the best way to win is to keep scoring. The Chiefs have the league’s 12th-best defense and its absolute best quarterback; they’re in the Super Bowl. They’ve become Super regulars.
The temptation is to suggest that this should be a massively entertaining game. The Eagles of Nick Sirianni won’t settle for field goals — they tried only 25, second-fewest among NFL teams. The Chiefs of Mahomes and Andy Reid didn’t become serial Supers by establishing the run. That said, the 2018 NFL season saw offenses run amok, the culmination being Rams-Chiefs on Monday night. The Rams won 54-51.
The same Rams graced the Super Bowl. They lost 13-3. I’d be shocked if this year’s score is anything like that. Guessing it’ll be Chiefs 31, Eagles 28.
