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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), based in Findlay, Ohio, is an integrated downstream energy company. With a market capitalization of $51.4 billion, it operates across two segments: Refining & Marketing and Midstream.
Shares of the energy titan have underperformed the broader market over the past year. Despite rallying 7.4% over the past 52 weeks, MPC has lagged behind the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 31.1% returns during the same time frame. In 2024, MPC is up 7%, lagging behind SPX’s 24.1% gains on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, MPC has outperformed the Vaneck Oil Refiners ETF’s (CRAK) 9.5% decline over the past 52 weeks and an 8.2% plunge on a YTD basis.
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Despite underwhelming performance over the past year, MPC stock popped 3.2% on Nov. 5, after posting a solid Q3 earnings report. It surpassed Wall Street estimates due to better-than-expected throughput and utilization rates, despite declining global refining margins. The company announced a $5 billion share repurchase program, bringing its total buyback authorization to $8.5 billion.
While refining margins were volatile, CEO Maryann Mannen expressed confidence in the company’s ability to navigate the challenging market. The company exceeded its expected crude capacity utilization and throughput, processing 3 million barrels per day, surpassing the 2.8 million barrels forecast. Marathon earned $1.87 per share, well above the analyst estimate of 98 cents.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect Marathon Petroleum to report an EPS decline of 59.4% year over year to $9.59. On the bright side, the company has a history of exceeding Wall Street’s EPS projections in its quarterly earnings reports.
Among the 18 analysts covering the MPC stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings and six “Holds.”
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This configuration has been fairly stable over the past months.
On Nov. 11, Barclays PLC (BCS) reduced its price target for Marathon Petroleum from $168 to $159 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating on the stock.
MPC’s mean price target of $177.44 represents a premium of 11.7% from current price levels. The Street-high target of $221 indicates a potential upside of 39.2%.