Manchester United are the second-worst xG underperformers in the Premier League so far this season – but where does your team rank?
It’s been a season to forget so far for Manchester United. The Red Devils are 13th in the table, prompting them to part ways with former manager Erik ten Hag.
And according to one stat in particular, they are one of the worst teams in the league.
Using data gathered by WhoScored, we can see that United are the second worst in terms of xG underperformance this season.
Now a regular feature of football analysis, xG is a measure of the likelihood a shot will result in a goal.
It is used to assess the chance creation and conversion rate of a team. Below, we can see how each Premier League side ranks for over or underperforming their xG.
By this, we mean when a team has scored fewer or more goals than their total xG so far.
Premier League xG Over/Underperformance This Season
Manchester United Are The Second-Worst xG Underperformers In The Premier League
As that graphic shows, United’s actual goals scored falls well below their xG. So far, they have an xG of 20, but have scored just 12 times, giving them an xG underperformance of -8.00. Only Crystal Palace have a worse record, with -9.00.
United’s underperformance in xG shows that they are not taking enough of their chances. In terms of creativity, United’s xG of 20 is actually the eighth highest in the league, demonstrating they are not struggling to manufacture opportunities.
But where they have fallen foul is in converting from those positions. Wasteful finishing may be an issue, but United fans can at least take comfort knowing that they are creating enough chances to score.
And with new manager Ruben Amorim arriving, there is reason for more optimism at Old Trafford.
Title Challengers All Underperforming Their xG
Another observation from the data is that all three sides tipped to challenge for the title have underperformed their xG, to varying degrees.
Each of Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal have failed to score as many goals as the data says they should have.
Arsenal are the worst of the three, with an underperformance of -3.80. They have scored 18 times, with an xG of 21.80.
With an xG of 24.60, Liverpool have created the best scoring opportunities in the Premier League this season.
But having scored only 21 times, they have also underperformed with a score of -3.60.
City meanwhile have closely matched their xG of 23.80 by scoring 22 goals. They are still underperforming slightly, though, at -1.80.
Only Three Clubs Are Overperforming Their Premier League xG
Of all 20 sides in the Premier League, all have scored fewer goals than their xG predicted, except three.
Wolves, Brentford and Leicester City are the only sides to outscore their xG so far.
Bottom of the table before the weekend, Wolves picked up their first win of the season against Southampton to leapfrog the Saints and climb to 19th.
With 16 goals scored from just 11.80 xG, Wolves are the biggest overperformers in the league. They may not create many chances, but they take the few opportunities they get.
Conversely, their opponents at the weekend, Southampton, have underperformed their xG by -7.00.
Brentford, meanwhile, have overperformed by 2.50, scoring 22 from an xG of 19.50. Leicester are doing marginally better than expected, having outscored their xG by 0.68.
One thing the data does show us, though, is that neither creativity nor finishing ability alone is enough to earn points.
The Premier League is merciless and unforgiving, and unless teams can both manufacture enough opportunities and convert them into goals, they will struggle significantly.
